Maragall, Trias and the butterfly effect that has altered the negotiation for the investiture

Together they are 157 years old, but they feel like political kids. Ernest Maragall (80 years old) and Xavier Trias (77 years old) saw how the debate of the moment, a new amnesty law for those involved in the process, passed without them being able to do anything. Not like Felipe González (81 years old) or Alfonso Guerra (83 years old), for example. So they decided that they were also going to appear in the photo and as councilors they would force the plenary session of the Barcelona City Council to debate a joint proposal of symbolic value, since the Catalan council lacks powers on the subject and has no role in this funeral.. The two independence veterans achieved their milestone and this was voted on last Friday in the municipal plenary session, but at a price that not even they themselves expected.. An unexpected butterfly effect has complicated talks to invest Pedro Sánchez, which until then were on the right track.

the old rockers never die. If the Rolling Stones release a new album, Xavier and Ernest were going to rock it. And they did. The bubble of. There ERC and JxCAT, oblivious to municipal harmony, were distributing tow thanks to the general policy debate. So the joint proposal in the Catalan capital had an unexpected knock-on effect between the parliamentary groups of Republicans and Juntaires.. If Ernest and Xavier had known how to agree, how could they be less?

In the pro-independence parliamentary groups they made their calculations with a broad stroke. A Parliamentary resolution proposal has the same symbolic value as a municipal proposal: no practical application. So it was just a matter of seeking the easy applause of his voters without assuming any responsibility.. It was all benefits.

As it was also about ERC and JxCAT, the auction so common between both parties soon began.. It was no longer enough to support the amnesty law, the referendum had to be included, even if it was shoehorned in and was not the axis of the negotiations between Moncloa and Waterloo.. The final wording of the proposed resolution, which was voted on in the Parliament, could not be more compromising: “The Parliament is in favor of the Catalan political forces represented in the Spanish Cortes not giving support to an investiture of a future “Government that does not commit to working to make the conditions for holding the referendum effective”.

braking

Now the exegetes of the independence movement assure that the trap is that it calls for a “referendum” and not a “self-determination referendum”. And that this would ultimately allow a consultation to be held to change the Statute, but not to vote to separate from the rest of Spain.. Readings like this, online “Artur Mas's cunning”, is because a part of the independence movement understands that they have gone too far and that maintaining this position runs the risk of ruining all the conversations.

The turn taken in the last few hours has irritated the PSC. Salvador Illa and, at another level, former president José Montilla, have been involved in the approaches to the world of Waterloo, according to sources from the independence movement familiar with the contacts.. While Catalan socialism sought to create a general context to make possible the approval of a future Amnesty Law, the independence movement only intends to convert said norm into another victory for the movement..

Opposite result

The proposed resolution sought applause from its own ranks. In practice, he has torpedoed the talks and has set before his voters a new objective, “the referendum”, which makes the final agreement more expensive and which, in addition, leaves ERC and JxCAT portrayed if in the end it is not achieved.. If the breaking point of the conversations, as MEP Clara Ponsatí confessed, is that “the main novelty is that we admit to talking about the amnesty separating it from self-determination, although now I look at it from the outside”.

ERC and JxCAT have made life difficult for the PSC, but they have also done it to themselves. Now it will cost much more to close a pact, no matter how much the current Government offers an amnesty. A good part of the independence movement will not know much. Seeking applause from the bases can end up turning them against you.

From the point of view of negotiating strategy, the Parliament's proposed resolution makes no sense. Especially if, as it seems, the talks were going well until the independentists themselves sabotaged themselves. But this is what always happens to the movement: they lose their gestures towards the gallery. And in the end, they sacrifice everything for that. Just like on October 27, 2017, when Carles Puigdemont first declared independence and then went away for the weekend.