Moncloa loses control of the amnesty story in Brussels in a tense atmosphere

The Government had a fundamental advantage when it came to explaining the amnesty in Brussels to European partners and community institutions: in general, non-Spanish people have a positive image and are somewhat indifferent towards the idea.. To many, it seems like a good thing if it helps a problem that they have been hearing about since 2017 disappear.. When last Monday the Financial Times published an editorial in which it assured that the amnesty was a “risk worth taking”, many in Spain put their hands on their heads, but the truth is that it reflected quite well what was I was thinking about Brussels and other European capitals.

But just on the day that the socialists presented the amnesty bill, the Government has seen how it has lost the initiative when it comes to explaining this measure at the European level: first through a very influential media outlet in Brussels, then with the offensive of the European People's Party (EPP) and Ciudadanos through the European Parliament and finally by the words of a former minister of Sánchez, Josep Borrell, current head of European diplomacy, who has been critical. The Moncloa has made its explanation permeate important sectors where hard power is found, in the European Commission, with which there has been a continuous dialogue for months that has made the Spanish Executive very clear which were the swampy areas that the legal text should not explore. In principle, the Government should not have serious problems with the institution. However, at a public and communication level, the Government has not given any type of explanation about the strategy behind the amnesty..

Everything was limited to the indoor strategy. The first time that Pedro Sánchez mentioned the word amnesty was at the press conference after the Granada summit, surrounded by Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, and Charles Michel, president of the EU Council.. The implicit message sent by the acting president was one of internal consumption: that Brussels supported the idea. In the strategy, Europe played a domestic role. But the Government has not worked on everything that surrounds that hard power of the community capital, that entire ecosystem of journalists, opinion generators and politicians..

In the exercise of discretion in negotiation, the socialists have neglected the front of public opinion in Brussels. And it started to go wrong this Monday, at 7:12. The morning routine in Brussels is very marked from the moment you wake up: reading the daily newsletter from Politico, the leading European news portal, checking the Financial Times, having a coffee and greeting your partner.. In that order. From senior officials of the European Commission, ambassadors and diplomats, to interns and the latest arrivals in the community capital. And all of them this Monday morning woke up to a newsletter that harshly attacks the Spanish Socialist Workers Party and Pedro Sánchez..

The newsletter echoes the protests of judicial organizations and points out that “across the political spectrum, politicians, judges and intellectuals have warned of a constitutional crisis,” denying the socialist narrative that Junts abides by the Constitution through a denial resounding by Aleix Sarri, Carles Puigdemont's chief of staff, and directly and starkly attacks the idea of the Catalan quota, assuming that Barcelona would keep all taxes: “In Brussels, Sánchez urges rich capitals like Berlin to show solidarity by redistributing its wealth among the poorest. Don't let the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, find out that, within Spain, Sánchez is considering Junts' demand that Catalonia keep 100% of the taxes collected there.”.

Shortly after, the EPP issued a joint statement from its president, the German Manfred Weber, together with the leader of the Spanish delegation, Dolors Montserrat, again charging against the amnesty.. The European Christian Democrats have agreed that next week, during the plenary session to be held in Strasbourg (France), a debate will be held on the situation of the rule of law in Spain. They have the support of the liberal group (Renew Europe) and the ultra-conservatives (ECR), as well as, perhaps, the ultra-nationalists (ID), so the issue would go ahead and be included on the agenda.. But even if one of them fails, it is up to the popular Europeans to choose next week's “thematic debate”, so they could also include it that way.. In summary: next week in Strasbourg the amnesty and the situation in Spain will be discussed, although said debate will have no legal effect.

The EPP is not alone in this hostile environment. This same Monday, ALDE, the hard core of the European liberals of Renew Europe, the continental formation led by Emmanuel Macron's party, has also issued a harsh statement. “The defense of the rule of law and an independent judiciary are non-negotiable in our European democracy. European liberals remain firm in their unwavering commitment to defend the rule of law,” explained Ilhan Kyuchyuk, vice president of ALDE..

It will be an aggressive debate, “Spanish-Spanish” as it is called here: probably dominated by Spanish MEPs from different parties who will engage in an exchange of accusations, but at the same time the Spanish parties will try to find a couple of foreign colleagues who manage to convey the message that the issue matters beyond the Pyrenees. Spain usually brings many national issues to the plenary session of the European Parliament, to the boredom and complaint of MEPs of other nationalities.. In fact, in March the situation of the rule of law in Spain was already addressed in a very angry debate. But this time is different. There is a less favorable environment for Moncloa and Borrell's words will not help the interests of the socialists either..

Borrell's coup

And on Monday it continued to get worse for the Spanish Executive. At the end of a Foreign Affairs Council, the high representative of the Union for Foreign Policy was asked about the amnesty and the agreements of the PSOE with Junts and ERC. “Everyone who knows me in Spain and knows my personal and previous political career can imagine what I think,” explained Borrell, who in his position as head of European diplomacy must be careful not to mix his institutional role and his personal opinions. and policies. “Without knowing it in detail I cannot comment, but I do know the political agreements reached with two pro-independence parties and certainly those agreements cause me some concern or quite a few logical concerns, on the other hand, because it is a complex and difficult problem about which “At the time, not now, I will express myself,” he assured at a press conference..

Shortly afterwards, asked about his words, José Manuel Albares, acting Minister of Foreign Affairs, who had been with Borrell all day, assured that no minister had asked him about the amnesty and that, however, many ministers had approached him. to congratulate you on Sánchez's re-election. But the reality is that the issue has been permeating, that it is increasingly talked about in informal conversations, in coffees and beers with friends and acquaintances, without this meaning that those curious about the situation are against the amnesty.. The Government wants to convey the image that the issue does not even exist outside of Spain. But the reality is that Borrell has not responded to questions from any Spanish media: it was the journalist from the French newspaper Le Monde who asked him for his opinion on the matter..

A hostile environment

The Government had a head start on this matter. Von der Leyen will always avoid having a confrontation with Sánchez, because she has always had a very good relationship with him, the Spanish Executive has always supported her and is a fundamental partner if she wants re-election.. And having Von der Leyen on your side is very important, because the German has unprecedented control of everything that happens within the European Commission.. On the other hand, Brussels was clear about its red lines, as it had shown in the past: respect the budget of the European Union, something it had already warned about when the reform of the Penal Code affected embezzlement, and any mention in the law that could raise doubts regarding the separation of powers, such as the mention of lawfare. The Government has been careful not to step on those two mines.

That has not prevented even so, with a very good relationship with Von der Leyen and a constant exchange with the European Commission, Didier Reynders, Commissioner for Justice, from sending a letter requesting more information about the amnesty law last Wednesday, a day before the agreement between PSOE and Junts. That letter infuriated the acting Government, which saw it as an interference. The very significant number of complaints that are being received, both from anonymous citizens and organizations and also from the Popular Party and also from the Citizens delegation in the European Chamber, but above all the unanimous positioning of judicial organizations of all political sensitivities, have caused Brussels to look with special attention at the situation.

But even so, Moncloa still has an advantage. The popular strategy largely involves getting the European Commission to intervene, and unless there is something in which it very clearly has powers, the Community Executive is not going to take action.. But the public environment is beginning to be hostile and that doesn't help at all.. Many Brussels residents will have received their first information on the matter with a very damaging newsletter for the Government this Monday morning, and many others will have seen the head of European diplomacy express his opposition that same day in the afternoon.. Next week's debate will be aggressive and harsh, and even without having any practical effect it will draw attention to the issue.

The narrative is just that: the narrative. You don't win or lose solely because of the narrative, but it is an important factor to take into account.. But the Government has lost the initiative when it comes to setting a narrative. Even the Financial Times editorial last week, which so well reflected the general image of the situation, was clear about one thing: they knew that the agreement is being made only to move forward with the investiture.. They did not believe that there was a strategy of underlying harmony. They simply argued that it was a risk worth taking, even if it was for the wrong reasons. What has happened in the last week and especially in the last few hours is that some wonder if politically it was really a bet worth making.