Political Uncertainty as Felipe VI Navigates Uncharted Waters

Discount time has begun for Felipe VI. The Head of State finds himself in a situation never experienced in almost half a century of democracy in Spain. Two candidates say they want to be appointed by the King to form a government.

The most voted, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, relies on the argument of being the leader of the first political force. However, after Vox yesterday broke the promised support for the PP candidate, Cuca Gamarra, after the party’s refusal to give them a seat on the table, Feijóo would not add enough support and would only be left with their representatives -137, plus the UPN deputy and the representative of Coalition Canaria-. It remains pending what position Santiago Abascal takes and if the break is maintained.

Pedro Sánchez, socialist candidate and acting president, has been running since 23-J as the ideal person to form a government despite being the second force. However, the support of Junts yesterday during the vote of the members of the Table brought him closer to La Moncloa again. So the King has two politicians running, but without a clear picture to form a government.

Constitutionalists consulted by EL MUNDO stress that the very existence of the round of consultations implies an assessment of the situation. And based on that, he must calibrate not only the votes obtained, but the support he can gather to be sworn in as president.. Francesc Carreras is positioned in this sense.

«I see the procedure very clearly», he assures, invoking article 99 of the Constitution: «After each renewal of the Congress of Deputies, and in the other constitutional cases in which it proceeds, the King, after consulting with the representatives designated by political groups with parliamentary representation, and through the President of Congress, will propose a candidate for the Presidency of the Government».

Francina Armengol is the only clear name right now. The new president of Congress has as its first function to draw up a list with the spokespersons of each parliamentary group and send it to the King. Before each new constitution of the Table of Congress, the Head of State has always received the new president in audience.

It will be the same with Armengol, who, after that first meeting, today, will send you the names of the spokespersons. So, the Head of State will set two days for the consultations, probably not before the middle of next week or at the beginning of the last week of August.. the date is important.

If it were already held in September, the chances of a hypothetical electoral repetition falling at Christmas would be full. Therefore, two options are considered for the investiture: either the end of August or the end of September, so that a new appointment with the polls would already be in January.

Don Felipe meets with the candidates in a protocol order from highest to lowest parliamentary weight and listens to their proposals. Several of Sánchez’s potential partners, predictably, will not even attend the appointment in Zarzuela. Once the consultations have been carried out, the King must propose as a candidate whoever he believes has the support to form a Government.

“In a parliamentary system, the party with the most votes is not the one that can form a government,” recalls Carreras, who insists that in article 99 “what is implicit is that the King has to propose whoever has the best chances.”. If he proposes the most voted knowing that he does not gather support, “the one who would lose would be the King, not the candidate,” he says.

Six legislatures and nine rounds

Felipe VI knows the procedure perfectly. He has six legislatures and nine rounds of consultations in his reign. Don Juan Carlos held 10 rounds of consultations. Four failed and three effective investitures with two Prime Ministers: Rajoy and Sánchez have emerged from these appointments with parliamentary spokesmen.

According to article 56.1 of the Constitution, the King “arbitrates and moderates the regular functioning of the institutions”. Felipe VI invokes all legal means to be able to form a government. This happened in 2016, when he commissioned Rajoy to form a government, who declined the constitutional mandate.

The head of state had to repeat the rounds of consultations and order Sánchez to form a government, which did not obtain enough votes. Rajoy won and the King ordered him to form a government, but he did not succeed in the first round, so there was a new round from which the popular party was already invested. Between the first consultations of that year and the opening of the next legislature, 10 months passed with a government in office.

The elections that followed the vote of no confidence did not yield a clear winner. The King called two new rounds but elections were held again. A single round of consultations at that time was enough for the head of state to commission Sánchez to form a government. Now, the King will listen to the spokesmen in a new round of consultations to decide who to appoint.