Puigdemont: 'caixa' or facade

The sine qua non condition for a negotiation, political, business, social, is that all parties consider, or can sell, that they win.. Another reason for agreeing is translated in negative terms, that is, not doing so entails a greater loss than doing so.. However, in the political negotiation of Sánchez's investiture it is not evident what Puigdemont gains or loses if he decides to make an agreement with the Government of Spain.. And that could be the fundamental reason why all the analyzes are so clueless about whether or not there will finally be an investiture.. For now, MEP Carles Puigdemont has the upper hand.. Because? Because Sánchez wanted a short negotiation and this seems to be going for a long time. Furthermore, the debate has not been about what Junts (Puigdemont) wins or loses if it gives another opportunity to the right and the extreme right to win in a supposed electoral repetition, but rather about the tricks of the independentists and, especially, of the former president..

Sánchez, on the election night of July 23, had to take a deep breath after holding his breath for two months. The surveys, in the same way as in Poland or Argentina, had underestimated the capacity of mobilization of antibodies against the extreme right.. That night, there was a winner, the PP, and a winner: the PSOE that, together with Sumar, had the opportunity to reissue the Government, but with an even more twisted sum, because it had to incorporate Puigdemont into the governability of the country, the who made mockery of the State and judicial disobedience a political career.

Isabel Díaz Ayuso, unlike her PP colleagues, rushed to take the investiture of Pedro Sánchez for granted. The Madrid president's speech exterminated the already complex story of a Feijóo exhausted by an insufficient victory. Despite the fact that the head of state's assignment forced the Galician to try to make a move, those who were already deploying their playing field were the independentists, especially Junts, who for the first time since its creation was willing to play the investiture game. , as stated by his only valid interlocutor, something that Ayuso's statements confirmed.

Junts is not a typical political party, because it was not designed to be one either.. You could say that it is a kind of platform that is amalgamated around a political leader who is not part of its leadership, Carles Puigdemont.. The political decisions of this platform do not emanate from the Junts bodies, but they are not endorsed by them either.. To (pseudo) ratify them or not, another parallel body was created called the Consell de la República, where in recent times there are more critics than members, which Puigdemont continues to use as if it were a kind of Parliament in which he remains the president. in exile.

When it is said that Junts is negotiating the investiture, it is not true. The one who negotiates, the one who decides and the one who agrees or does not agree is Puigdemont, and according to information from Fernando Garea, his lawyer, Gonzalo Boye who establishes the perimeter of the amnesty. The rest of the platform will do what Puigdemont orders. Therefore, to analyze whether the pact will be made or what political implications it has, we should not frame the analysis in what affects Junts as a party, but rather whether Puigdemont is interested in reaching a political agreement or not.. Because at this time the only thing that is clear is the strategy of making the PSOE suffer, which continues in a silent state and without giving clues on how to address this Rubicon.

Is Puigdemont interested in the pact? We will consider in the analysis that the amnesty would be the central condition and that it would affect him personally.. It is assumed that Puigdemont, as a father, son, husband, friend, would be interested in returning home.. Today, the former president of Catalonia has limited his movements, because he knows that if he returns to Spain he would have to face justice, in the same way that Junqueras and company did.. Remember that ostracism, since ancient times, has been one of the greatest punishments to which a person could be condemned. Therefore, we will assume that he would love to be able to return home, not be judged, continue as a European parliamentarian and spend the weekends in Girona, thanks also to his judicial and political strategy..

However, from the return, then what. The abnormality of his vital situation is what continues to motivate his political legitimacy.. We pointed out before that Junts is a party that Puigdemont leads, let's say from the exile of its leadership, because it is not part of it.. And this organic abnormality is granted because none of its members, those who pay the membership fee, dare to contradict a person who has sacrificed sleeping at home for the political cause.. Therefore, once you acquire the status of a person who can walk around your native Girona, what differentiates you from the rest?

The second question is not minor and is, once the clean slate operation has been carried out, what sense does it make to continue pedaling the fiction of the Consell de la República and, above all, how is it going to maintain the status of primus inter pares without assuming the statutes and daily life of a political party. He will try to lead Junts per Catalunya or he will set up another party. Furthermore, Puigdemont would be willing to submit to the legitimacy of the polls. That is, he will present himself as the head of the list in the next elections to the Parliament of Catalonia, ERC is deciding who will present himself as a candidate: Aragonès or Junqueras. But the other architect of October 1, 2017, if Puigdemont were to run for election, would run the risk of wanting to be president under the threat of being left without that legendary patina..

Every day that passes without an agreement, positions become castled. At first it seemed that the amnesty was the big game enough to save the party. However, the days go by and positions become messy.. Puigdemont no longer only seems to want amnesty, which could be read as his papal bull for his own, now the referendum is back in the foreground, a verification process, according to Lola García, a possible nominative recognition, we do not know if political, called “Catalan national minority” that could have unique political rights? And finally, at least so far, he wants a call, not to be less than Junqueras, with whom Pedro Sánchez had a conversation a few days ago, and, therefore, to be recognized at the highest government level, the photo of Díaz it is no longer enough.

But what is Puigdemont willing to do? The compromise that Sumar imposes at the moment, the only ones who have spoken out clearly on this matter, is the recognition of their own errors and the purpose of amendment, come on, stop saying that “they will come back to fer”. Junqueras and all those judicially convicted and politically amnestied did not recognize a single error. They all defended their right to fight for the independence of Catalonia and to carry out a unilateral referendum. We will hear Puigdemont admit some mistakes and, above all, say that, at least, he would not do it again. It is very difficult for me to imagine it, especially because he knows that at the moment the one who is leading the strategy of this negotiation is him..

There is still one month and three days left to exhaust the deadline that would force Spain to return to the polls. Just over 30 days in which every day that passes without an agreement the PSOE is forced to listen to how the requests of its not yet members become more expensive. But the only thing that seems to matter is whether Puigdemont wants it or not, whether this pact benefits him or only in the short term.. At the moment, the socialists are finding it too long. The day they speak will be to sentence and Puigdemont will have to choose caixa (negotiate the pact and obtain its benefits) or facha (give the extreme right the opportunity to enter the Government in a repeat election).