Sánchez's transformism for 23-J: more center, less Podemos and return to bipartisanship

Pedro Sánchez has demonstrated on many occasions his capacity for reinvention. To adapt to circumstances, assume contradictions and change course to better reorient towards their goals. His political biography is marked by rudder changes, both in the opposition and in the organic life of the PSOE and during the five years he has been in charge of the Government. However, after the debacle of 28-M and the subsequent decision to advance the general elections to 23-J, the shift in his campaign strategy and speech makes the Sánchez of just a few weeks ago unrecognizable. A transformism that implies an attempt to reset the current legislature as far as the policy of pacts is concerned, releasing ballast from his parliamentary allies and putting an end to the staged tandem with Yolanda Díaz, but also denying certain policies of his partners, such as the feminist line of the Ministry of Equality, with which she always closed ranks, or look more to the center than to the left.

The design of the campaign for 23-J, in addition, little or nothing resembles that of the municipal and regional campaigns. Sánchez has left the rallies behind to plan a road show around the sets, including those of the media considered less sympathetic and that had not set foot in years, to bring a message of greater moderation to this type of audience.. Address more to the voters of the PSOE in 2019 who are now inclined to choose another ballot or to stay at home, than to reinforce the militant and supporter. From shying away from the media, or limiting interviews to a few, to being overexposed both in informational spaces and in the so-called infotainment. Likewise, he has opted for face-to-face debates, which he refused to hold in the previous general campaign, being in a position of strength, and for focusing the electoral contest in a bipartisan key..

The necessary crutch to the left of the PSOE, on which Moncloa placed its hopes before 28-M to fish in the fishing ground of demobilized progressive voters and thus join forces to re-edit the coalition, is now yet another ballast. In the best of cases, it is ignored, now burying the electoral ticket with the second vice president who was staged, with a view to the generals, in the vote of no confidence of Vox. just three months ago. At worst, an amendment is made to the entirety, as in the case of Irene Montero.

Sánchez was always the main supporter in the Government of the policies of the purple leader, choosing to break the tie in her favor for laws, such as the trans, which she maintained with the then first vice president, Carmen Calvo. Even with the law of only yes is yes, when the first reviews of convicted sexual offenders began to be made public in November, he asked his followers to close ranks with Montero after some socialist minister rushed to demand his reform. His maxim was to keep the coalition together and move the focus away from the conflict over the feminist flag.

Now, Sánchez has not only wanted to highlight his “public and notorious” differences with the Podemos leader over laws such as the only yes is yes, but he has even made an amendment to his “confrontational feminism” in its entirety.. Up to the point of censoring her for giving “arguments to these political leaders”, in reference to Vox's denial of gender violence. Of course, after assuring last Monday in an interview on Onda Cero that the speeches by the Minister of Equality had made his friends, men between 40 and 50, feel “uncomfortable”, the next day he recognized in another interview on La Sexta (El Intermedio) that this conclusion was derived from “demoscopy studies”. The conclusion was that it had alienated male voters and also women.

The conversion of Sánchez after 28-M is mainly nourished from this demographic reading. From the diagnosis of the wear and tear of its policy of pacts or some of the measures carried out by the coalition. As the IMOP-Insights survey for El Confidencial, analyzed by Ignacio Varela, collected this Monday, the four reasons for rejection most cited by former PSOE voters are the management of Pedro Sánchez (21%), the pacts (12%), the radicalization to the left (10%) and the breach of promises (10%).

The same analysis based on the aforementioned survey puts figures on the transfer of voters for 23-J. Of the 2.8 million people who gave their vote to the PSOE in 2019 and, for now, show no intention of repeating it, 21% favor another party, 8% abstain or cast a blank or null vote and one 13% do not know or do not answer. The net transfer to the PP is estimated at around 600,000 votes, but there are also leaks between blocks towards Vox.

The other great turn of Sánchez with respect to 28-M and the current legislature with the first coalition government since the return of democracy is the direct appeal to the useful vote. To concentrate the progressive support in the ballot of the fist and the rose. A reset of the coalition government, which would also contribute, according to surveys, to reducing the support of the socialists at the polls. Only in the aforementioned interview in El Intermedio, did Sánchez show his desire to govern in the future with Sumar.

“A Pre-Election Partner”

A message for a certain type of public, which is assumed to be more progressive, but which did not last long due to the discomfort expressed in Ferraz by the clamp of Díaz with Alberto Núñez Feijóo regarding the format proposed for the electoral debates. The leader of the populars prioritized a debate of three instead of two if Sumar's candidate preferred this format so as not to be left out. Díaz immediately picked up the glove and alarm bells went off in Ferraz, fearing that the “delay strategy” and entanglements in the Genoa counterproposal were intended to prevent a face-to-face meeting from finally taking place..

Within the framework of this conversion of the Sánchez after 28-M, other contradictions that have emerged coinciding this Wednesday with the first measures of the program announced by the PSOE seem more anecdotal. The proposal to increase maternity and paternity leave by one month, from the current 16 weeks to 20, was vetoed by the socialist wing of the Ministry of Social Rights, headed by the general secretary of Podemos, Ione Belarra.

From this department, they remember that their initial proposal for the family law already included the extension of maternity / paternity leave up to six months. An increase that would be implemented gradually until 2026. However, then the PSOE did not allow it and finally the Council of Ministers was taken without this measure, which the Socialists now recover in their program. One more contradiction, perhaps minor, although the response through a tweet from the Minister of Social Rights gives an account of the background current: “I wish I had governed with this pre-electoral partner”.