Spanish socialism succeeded in turning around the right-wing electoral mantra of “que te vote Txapote”. Now the challenge is more difficult. “Let Puigdemont vote for you” in the literal sense, since Pedro Sánchez needs the support of the seven JxCAT deputies in Congress if he wants to repeat his mandate. But this kind of slogan, an idea by the Murcian political analyst Ángel Montiel, will be a much more ambitious objective.. Sources close to Waterloo estimate that there is nothing they can offer from Moncloa to the former Catalan president and, therefore, they conclude that in January there will be a new electoral repetition.

The PSOE is not going to make an offer in the coming days, according to sources from the Socialists. It will come like this to September. They consider that the same pressure will work with Carles Puigdemont as with Alberto Núñez Feijóo: let the days go by and his weakness becomes evident. But the fact that this can work with Junts does not mean that the same will happen with Waterloo and its surroundings, since there are differences between the party and the group installed in Belgium.

Puigdemont has shown that he controls JxCAT remotely. He did it when he appointed Míriam Nogueras as a candidate for Congress. The bridges of the training with ERC do not reach Waterloo. Only the Republican Secretary General, Marta Rovira, maintains some sporadic contact. Sources of this formation confess that communication with the environment of the expresident is on the dead end. The relationship only belongs to the president of Junts, Laura Borràs, and its general secretary, Jordi Turull. Neither of them will be relevant in the final decision on the investiture. And after the Foreign vote, the former president has made it more than clear on his Twitter account: “The final count has caused a change in the seats of the relevant Parliament in the investiture equation,” recalls the leader of Junts. “The President of the Government can only be elected if he has the positive vote of a very broad coalition, including the 7 votes of Junts per Catalunya”. Only “yes” is valid and it will be “no”.

The unity of the independence movement is more than questioned, since the most ambitious thing that ERC proposes is to modify the regional financing, while JxCAT aspires to be granted an amnesty and a referendum on the self-determination of Catalonia.

The PSOE has limited itself to sending messages to the Waterloo and JxCAT environment. The most relevant, according to sources close to the party, has been that of the former Spanish president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. He has made it very clear that “there will be neither an amnesty nor a referendum.” Socialism hopes that expectations will be lowered and that an agreement can be reached. For them or because ERC manages to drag them to their more pragmatic positions.

But that does not seem possible with the escaped Catalan expresident. First, because there are no bridges with him. That is evident with ERC. Carles Puigdemont and Oriol Junqueras do not speak to each other, as the former acknowledged in an interview with RAC-1. “I haven't talked to Junqueras for a long time. months, maybe a year. With Marta Rovira, the last message was in October 2021,” he declared.. So it is not so easy to influence Puigdemont who also likes photos of his visits so that his role is recognized. And this negotiation requires discretion, as recognized by all parties..

sumar's laboratory

Sumar's ideas laboratory is preparing a proposal. For that, Yolanda Díaz designated Jaume Asens as interlocutor with Puigdemont. Sumar sources acknowledge that turning to Asens was a personal decision by Díaz, without consulting Moncloa or the PSOE. The proposal that Asens will transfer, of which the details are unknown, will not have the endorsement of Ferraz either. The irony is that he was the man who bypassed Puigdemont's then lawyer, Jaume Alonso Cuevillas, and recommended the former president flee to Belgium in October 2017.. Alonso Cuevillas found out that his client had crossed the border when the press called him. Now Asens has to transfer to Puigdemont himself a solution so that he can return. A surprising turn of events.

The whole situation in Sumar with the Catalan issue is, to say the least, contradictory. Asens raises rejection among the bases of the Commons for being an independentist. In the last primaries, when they named him a candidate, he had a 40% abstention rate as a sign of protest. Another irony is that Sumar's spokesman, Ernest Urtasun, is an MEP, like Puigdemont. But the relationship between the two is tense, bordering on non-existent, according to sources in the European Parliament. So it has been preferred to play it safe.

In any case, Sumar's proposal will not reach Waterloo until the end of August or the beginning of September. “There will be a job that will take weeks, perhaps months,” warned the leader of the Commons in Parliament, Jèssica Albiach.

Back to the polls

With these pieces on the board, it is most likely to repeat the general elections next January. Carles Puigdemont does not have incentives to yield. JxCAT yes, because the party is financially exhausted, and a new campaign is not what the formation needs the most. But Puigdemont has already vetoed the agreements with the PSC in the councils, although their mayors preferred it to the final result: an ERC strengthened by post-electoral pacts with Catalan socialism. The temptation for the former president to appear again at the polls is irresistible. And having the focus of the international press and appearing to the world as the man who forces new elections in the fourth largest European economy, even more.

In addition, Puigdemont has now come up with all the defenders of abstention —Clara Ponsati, the former vice-president of the Parliament Josep Costa, the leadership of the ANC—, who aspire to stand in the next Catalan elections precisely to politically bury both the former president and his rushes. And claiming to be purer than the tenant of Waterloo himself. It does not seem like the best time to reach agreements with Madrid from the point of view of the JxCAT MEP