Everything changed on Saturday July 15. Election campaign Ecuador. That day, in the PSOE engine room they received a tracking that showed a “peak rise” for them. “A strong rise”, was the conclusion after scrutinizing the data on mobile phones, they remember from Pedro Sánchez's team. That day, the strategists decided to change the pace, to leave behind a few days of discouragement as a result of Pedro Sánchez's stumble face to face with Alberto Núñez Feijóo. The numbers said that Saturday that there was a game. Subsequent polls confirmed the scenario. They returned to the daily rallies – decaffeinating even the EU-Celac summit -, parked to prioritize interviews in the media. And the focus was placed on Feijóo, in the PP, as some voices in the party were already asking for.
A week later, the “comeback” that the campaign team saw on their mobile phones that Saturday has resulted in Sánchez believing his inauguration is possible. The inputs that arrived in the day of reflection were also positive. All in all, Sunday night in Ferraz on the noble floors passed between skepticism at the first moments of the count, expectation and, according to some of the attendees, surprise at the final result. “What happened? Pedro Sanchez. He has no further explanations, “says a territorial leader.
Sánchez believes that he will be able to govern again. This was conveyed yesterday during the meeting of the Executive of the party. Applause, hugs, laughter… And sleepy faces. Also satisfaction. The leader of the PSOE and still president of the Government is convinced that there will be no blockade and, therefore, electoral repetition. What will he rule? As? It is what remains to be elucidated. What he has asked for is patience from his family. That it is a long-distance race, of wear and tear, and that Feijóo must wear himself out first and then they will come into play.
“This democracy will find the formula for governability”, was the message that Sánchez conveyed to his people during the Executive meeting, as reported by socialist sources present at the meeting.. “Eleven million people have voted forward.”
He did not offer any further clues or details, but from his message and conviction it can be deduced that Sánchez is determined to explore the Junts path, a negotiation with the party of Carles Puigdemont, still a fugitive from Justice and whose Euro-order yesterday requested the Prosecutor's Office to reactivate. The goal is to get at least their abstention. If they vote against, Sánchez has no chance of being sworn in.
The block that has allowed Sánchez to govern in the last four years reaches 172 deputies -PSOE (122), Sumar (31), ERC (7), Bildu (6), PNV (5) and BNG (1)-, for the 171 of a right-wing bloc that could make up the PP (136), Vox (33), UPN (1) and CC (1).
Junts, the formation of Carles Puigdemont, which won seven deputies, has said in this campaign that it would vote against any candidate. In the investiture debate, an absolute majority is needed in the first round (176 votes) and a simple majority in the second (more yeses than noes).. In other words, any option for Sánchez goes through the fact that Puigdemont's party abstains. Now one of the phrases that Sánchez has repeated like a sledgehammer over the last 15 days resonates: “I look for votes even under the stones”. It happens that Junts has been a party that has remained on the margins of governance and with which, unlike ERC or Bildu, the PSOE has not negotiated one-on-one measures or has used them to carry out measures.
If there are no more yeses than noes -Junts said yesterday that it will not vote in favor of Sánchez-, the blockade that the result reveals will be consummated and it would be necessary to go to new elections. But Sánchez and his team do not consider this option. They believe that there will be a government and that it will be theirs and not that of the PP, since they warn that Feijóo has guaranteed more nos than yeses in any vote.
Junts insists on asking for amnesty and the referendum as demands. During the campaign, Sánchez, faced with the demands that the independentistas were already anticipating for his support, launched the following commitment: the independentistas “request amnesty and a referendum and they have not had, nor will they have, either of the two things”. And he added that they will not happen due to “personal conviction” and because neither the Spanish Constitution nor any in the world recognizes the right to segregate a territory.
In the PSOE they dodge for the moment the subject of the negotiation with the independentistas. What to trade and how. «Now it is not time to talk about the price to pay. Is soon. It is time to analyze the results,” say government sources. And as for the uncomfortable photo of having to negotiate with Puigdemont's party, they are ironic about whether it would not have been uncomfortable to attend a negotiation between the PP and Vox. “We don't know what can happen, but the political position is already won, whatever [Sánchez] does,” says a prominent leader about the future relationship with Junts.
But the negotiation is taken for granted. “You have to go calmly. It will be tried and we believe that it will be achieved, ”explain government sources. From the Government they remember that in Catalonia autonomous communities are celebrated in 2025 and that there will be more parties, not only the PSOE, interested in working so that the path of Junts takes shape and allows the investiture of Sánchez. Sumar, through Asens, has already contacted Puigdemont, and ERC on the same Sunday night called Junts to an understanding to prevent the right from having a chance to govern.
Measurement in the calendar
Sánchez has transferred his family to have peace of mind. Calm. He won't move for now. Ferraz's strategy involves letting the PP cook in its own sauce. The analysis they make is that the result of Feijóo has caused anxiety in the popular ones and that given the internal tension that may exist, it is better to sit down and observe before making a false move. “In the PP they have to clarify now” say socialist sources. “We are not in a hurry.. We have not talked about investiture and we have not started anything, “they say, alluding to Feijóo's announcement to start contacts with other parties.
«It remains to be seen if the PP reaches the investiture. It does not have the necessary support,” they say from the socialist leadership. «The PP is not going to have a majority, we do. You cannot be in a hurry with this result, ”government sources portray.
They believe in the PSOE that in addition to the mobilization achieved, their good result is due to the fact that Feijóo “was riding a fictitious wave”, in relation to the polls, and that his last week “was calamitous.”
Pending events, Sánchez's position is to compromise as much as possible, even with an eye on September if necessary. They do not expect decisions, at least that is what they say in Ferraz, until August 17 approaches, when the Cortes have to be constituted. Nor is it contemplated, at least on its own initiative, not even a meeting with Feijóo. This is how they summarize in the Government and in Ferraz the situation in the PP in the last hours: «The PP is now talking to itself. He does not speak to the country, nor to the PSOE nor to any partner. He speaks in anticipation that there are no internal movements that could hinder Feijóo ».
Another of the keys to delaying time is that in the PSOE they know that different souls inhabit Junts, that every time there is a debate or important decision, the formation becomes tense and division appears. They trust that the passing of the days can make a dent and intensify those contrary positions, that an internal debate will be opened that facilitates the negotiation.