Sánchez turns to the continuity of Vara and fuels the reasons not to resign if he loses on 23-J

The ghost of the electoral repetition in Extremadura has led Guillermo Fernández Vara to reconsider his intention to abandon politics after 28-M. A decision that they have applauded in Ferraz. Party sources consider the socialist baron as “the president that Extremadura needs, given the show that PP and Vox are giving”. They see it as their main asset to re-present themselves if the lack of agreement leads to new elections and, as is foreseeable, the right does not refrain from the inauguration that the still acting president will attempt before. “If there is repetition, it will be Guillermo [Fernández Vara]” the candidate, say sources from the PSOE leadership. It remains party and there is no place for hasty organic resignations.

The support is total and the head of the Government and leader of the Socialists, Pedro Sánchez, has held two personal meetings with Vara in recent days. Your circumstances and decisions could become a mirror if you lose the elections on 23-J. That is, to resolve the doubts of those who think about the day after, about the succession, if they are defeated at the polls.

The message that the President of the Government sent to his people in the last Federal Committee was that “one day I will stop being president, but not on 23-J”. A message with a double reading, in a motivational key to launch to prepare the generals, immediately after the debacle of 28-M, and also of succession. Despite this, all the defeated barons have decided to hold on to their posts before the hypothetical opening of a succession process. With the Extremaduran mirror and Ferraz's determination to encourage Vara not to step aside, doubts are dissipating that Sánchez would not immediately leave the general secretary's office if he is defeated in the general elections. At least until there is investiture.

The possibility of an electoral repetition in the absence of absolute majorities (in the last two appointments of general elections, the elections had to be repeated) feeds the reasons for remaining in office until the situation is resolved. Without a replacement and as acting president, the only option to repeat as a PSOE candidate would be that of Pedro Sánchez. The leader of the popular, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who the polls give a winner, but needing Vox to add, actively and passively maintains that he will govern alone. Those of Santiago Abascal, for their part, defend that if their votes are necessary, they will demand to enter the Government. The negotiation in this situation will not be easy and the Galician leader will have to choose between the model of Extremadura or that of the Valencian Community, where the PP of Carlos Mazón has advanced a coalition agreement with the formation of the extreme right.

Before assuming this decision, always with the ghost of electoral repetition lurking if Feijóo maintains his commitment not to allow Vox to enter his Executive if he wins the elections, the leader of the popular will insist on asking the PSOE to abstain. A technical abstention that returns to the forefront of political language. That is, that the list with the most votes be allowed to govern so as not to have to agree with the crutches of each block. If Feijóo wins in a minority, prevent Vox from assuming government responsibilities, and if Sánchez does, prevent him from agreeing with the space to his left, now represented by Sumar.

The President of the Government has already ruled out this possibility and following Ferraz's command is the best guarantee to comply. Sánchez avoids the debate on the most voted list, also taking advantage of the fact that the popular ones have joined Vox to unseat socialist candidates who on 28-M were the first force. There will therefore be no abstention from the PSOE after 23-J to prevent a coalition government with Vox.

This is precisely the scenario indicated by the IMOP-Insights survey for El Confidencial published this Monday. The PP would obtain 33.3% of the vote and 136-138 deputies in Congress, some 40 seats above the PSOE, which remains below the psychological barrier of 100. An indisputable triumph, but insufficient for his goal of trying to govern alone. “The PSOE is an organization that deserves respect,” Sánchez demanded in an interview with Carlos Alsina on Onda Cero after being told that the possibility of preventing Santiago Abascal's men from entering a coalition could be in his hands.

A voluntary step aside from Sánchez, if he fails to revalidate himself as president of the Government, would not guarantee that “respect” that he asks of the PSOE. As he did not guarantee in 2016 at the investiture of Mariano Rajoy, with the traumatic abstention of socialist deputies that Sánchez opposed, intoning the no is no, until he ended up forcing his resignation.

To avoid these hypothetical fractures, Sánchez has drawn up electoral lists with people he trusts completely.. Much greater armor than in the 2019 elections. In fact, on this occasion, Ferraz chose to impose his candidates on various lists, both from territories led by critical barons and by like-minded. The clashes over the preparation of the candidacies inflamed the spirits in the federations of Castilla-La Mancha, the Valencian Community, Aragon and Castilla y León, causing the resignations of all the candidates on the Teruel list and for Ávila.

The leader of the socialists in Castilla y León, Luis Tudanca, one of the barons closest to the current Ferraz leadership, came to be publicly “outraged, disappointed and disappointed” with the impositions on the lists corresponding to his constituencies. The barons of Castilla-La Mancha and Aragón, Emiliano García-Page and Javier Lambán, for their part, did not even go to the Federal Committee that ratified the lists. Although the fire was controlled at the meeting of the highest body between congresses, the day after it was in everyone's mind and the fight for the lists left its mark.

Another of the reasons to avoid a hasty withdrawal, not to reissue the Government, shared in this case by all the political leaders who are going through these circumstances, is to prepare a calm relief. A controlled succession to influence the process. Beyond the message with which he closed the last Federal Committee —”someday I will stop being president, but not on 23-J”—, Sánchez avoids these debates at all costs, but he is clear about the legacy for which he wants to be remembered . “It will be you who make that reflection,” he responded to this question from Carlos Alsina to close his interview last Monday, to add that he would like “at least the public to interpret these years, which have been turbulent from the point of view of Given the geopolitical situation, we have tried to show our faces, not ignoring the challenges, facing them head-on and doing so in a supportive manner”.