Tezanos does it again: in 2019 he said that Gabilondo would be president and Alegría and Carmena, mayors
The Center for Sociological Research (CIS), directed by the socialist José Félix Tezanos, has published this Thursday a barometer that keeps intact the hopes of the main socialist barons to remain in power in the 28-M elections. But history repeats itself. Four years ago, in the last municipal and regional elections of 2019, the main conclusions of the macro-survey published on the day the posters were put up had little to do with reality.
The public body then predicted the long-awaited reconquest of the PSOE in the Community of Madrid, with Ángel Gabilondo at the helm, the continuity of Manuela Carmena as mayoress of the Madrid city and the victory of Pilar Alegría in the Zaragoza City Council.
Nothing could be further from the truth, it was Isabel Díaz Ayuso who became president against all odds, José Luis Martínez-Almeida ousted Carmena and Jorge Azcón took control of the Aragonese capital.
[Tezanos pushes the PSOE campaign with his CIS: he says that Page, Lambán and Ximo Puig will continue to rule]
Four years later, Tezanos once again anticipates a great victory for the left by giving the PSOE an advantage of up to more than four points over the PP. It also predicts the continuity of the Socialists in the governments of Castilla-La Mancha, Aragon and the Valencian Community and in the Seville City Council, as well as the victory in that of Valencia.
This contrasts considerably with what was published by the majority of private polls, which draw a clear victory in votes for the PP and leave the scenario much tighter.. Especially in two of the aforementioned communities, where the permanence of the socialist barons Lambán and Puig would be in danger, since they would be outclassed by the popular candidates and with little room to agree on their left.
Regarding the CIS survey four years ago, it was especially foolish in the city of Madrid. Although the forecasts regarding the distribution of forces were fulfilled, with Más Madrid on the podium and the PP second, the truth is that in the number of councilors it was only right with those of the popular ones.
Tezanos inflated Carmena's options by predicting that she would greatly exceed the absolute majority thanks to a pact with the Socialists. It granted Más Madrid between 21 and 23 councilors and the PSOE between 10 and 12 representatives. On the right, he placed the PP with 13-15 councilors, Ciudadanos 8-9 and Vox 2-3. The electoral results were: Más Madrid 19, PP 15, Cs 11, PSOE 8 and Vox 4.
[More Madrid trusts the CIS of Tezanos in its campaign debut: “There is a party in Sol and Rita will be mayoress!”]
In the same way, the CIS also raised the electoral expectations of the left in the Community of Madrid, by predicting a comfortable absolute majority for the sum of PSOE and Podemos. Especially striking was the ruling with the purple formation, which he placed with between 17 and 19 seats. They finally got 7. On the right, he placed Vox as the last force with between 6-8 deputies, when they got 12.
The other particularly striking case of that macro-survey was Castilla y León. Tezanos left open the options of triumph of the socialist Luis Tudanca, who if the estimate of the public body had been fulfilled would have recovered for the PSOE the Board after three decades of opposition. But, the majority of PP, Ciudadanos and Vox in the regional chamber, made expectations fall on deaf ears.
<p