The last barometer of the CIS, published hours before the pasting of posters that marks the beginning of the 28-M campaign, represents a new boost to the aspirations of the PSOE.

If we had to go to the polls today, the Socialists would win the municipal elections in Spain -the first national elections since the general ones in November 2019-, with 31.7% of the vote, that is, more than 4 points of advantage over the PP, which would remain at 27.3%. In addition, the third force would be Podemos (7.9%), ahead of Vox (6.8%).

According to the survey directed by José Félix Tezanos, the Socialists would consolidate in their main squares, and would continue to govern the Valencian Community, Castilla-La Mancha, Extremadura, Aragón, Asturias and Navarra.. In addition, the left would also maintain the municipalities of Seville and Valencia thanks to the support of its partners. Ada Colau would continue in Barcelona.

In the Community of Madrid, Isabel Díaz Ayuso would remain on the verge of an absolute majority. José Luis Martínez-Almeida would also revalidate his mayoralty, but with a very fair result that would leave the left on the verge of a sum to unseat him.

In Aragón, Javier Lambán would have serious difficulties to return to the presidency, but the PSOE would add enough (at its highest range) with Chunta, Podemos and Izquierda Unida. Aragón Existe would play a key role, and if Lambán's prognosis worsens, it would have governance in its hands. Jorge Azcón, through an agreement with Vox, would be one seat away from the presidency. The PP, as Genoa has suggested these days, would not rule out joining Aragón Existe.

[The CIS of Tezanos gives Ayuso an absolute majority and leaves Almeida pending from United We Can]

In Castilla-La Mancha, contrary to the polls published by the newspapers these days, Emiliano García-Page would obtain an absolute majority. It is a very little fragmented parliament. The other two parties with representation would be PP and Vox, but they would be far from seizing power.

In Valencia, Carlos Mazón, the PP candidate, would win the elections, but Ximo Puig would retain the government by reissuing the Botanic Pact with Compromís and Podemos. At its highest fork, those of Feijóo would be four seats away from achieving the investiture.

In the capital of this Community, it would be Compromís who would win the elections and, in return for Puig's presidency, the Socialists would once again make Joan Ribó mayor.

In Madrid, Ayuso's victory is beyond doubt and, like Page in Castilla-La Mancha, he would brush his fingers against an absolute majority. Almeida would have it much more complicated, who would see a sum from the left very closely. According to the CIS, Rita Maestre would not be mayor due to the lack of representation from Podemos, which would barely reach 5% enough. Murcia would be the other territory most prone to the PP. López-Miras would be president again.

Adrián Barbón, in Asturias, would maintain the presidency, but he would need Podemos. The sum of PP and Vox would be far from being enough. In Navarra, the fragmentation of the right after the breakup of the PP and UPN would once again facilitate the presidency of the socialist María Chivite, with the help of Bildu and Geroa Bai.

In La Rioja, the PP would win the elections by the minimum, but governance would remain up in the air. At their highest fork, the two blocks would be able to seize the presidency.

In Cantabria, Miguel Ángel Revilla could lose the government. PP and Vox could add an absolute majority, although a tripartite PSOE, Podemos and PRC could also do it. The presidency, therefore, would be undefined.

In the city of Barcelona, Ada Colau would clearly win the elections, although Collboni's result would be considerable. Junts would be above Esquerra Republicana. The current mayor would need support for the investiture. Óscar Puente and Abel Caballero would retain, respectively, the consistories of Valladolid and Vigo.

The map prior to the elections on May 28 in the Communities in dispute is as follows: the PP governs in two of the twelve regions (Madrid and Murcia), while the PSOE governs in nine (Asturias, Navarra, the Balearic Islands, , La Rioja, Canary Islands, Valencia, Aragon, Castilla-La Mancha and Extremadura). The rest, Cantabria, is in the hands of Miguel Ángel Revilla's PRC.

It is true that territorial power, in 2019, turned around in favor of the socialists and that the map was stained red. But of the five Communities that do not enter the fray within two weeks, three are in the hands of those from Feijóo: Galicia, Andalusia and Castilla y León.

Tezanos responds

As has been the case on previous occasions, the publication of the public barometer has come wrapped in controversy. Opposition groups have not given credibility to this survey for a long time, but last March Podemos also accused Tezanos of “manipulation” and asked him for “explanations”. Félix Bolaños, Minister of the Presidency, had to come out to defend the current president of the CIS and formerly a member of the PSOE Executive: “The technical criteria are beyond any doubt.”

Tezanos himself has responded to the criticism through an article published in the magazine Temas, which he himself directs. It is titled “The 1933 Syndrome” and its author compares himself to the Jews who suffered persecution under Nazism in Germany at that time.

The socialist sociologist says that the “systemic animosity” of PP, Vox and Ciudadanos is “scary” towards those who, like him, belong to “constitutional parties” and are in the “free exercise” of their “rights”. With this argument, he refutes that the opposition criticizes his duality as a PSOE militant and as president of the CIS.

“Belonging to a political party can be a kind of handicap or even a reason for repudiation, stigma or a priori rejection of certain Spaniards, who are even intended to be prevented by law from holding certain responsibilities,” writes Tezanos.

“Faced with such arguments, I cannot help but remember what millions of decent people suffered during the fateful years of the dictatorships that emerged in the thirties. Dictatorships that some now seem to want to whitewash,” adds the president of the CIS.

Tezanos not only has words for the opposition in his article, but also for the media that criticize his polls: in his opinion, the tone of certain newspapers and the aggressiveness of certain political commentators generate “astonishment and concern.”