The 'annus horribilis' in Vox, from Olona to Espinosa, between purges, radicalization and fiascos from Ayuso to Tamames

In the offices on Bambú street they do not remember what it is to have a quiet August. The abandonment of Iván Espinosa de los Monteros reactivates the tremors within Vox after an unstable year, of successes and failures at the polls and a progressive turn to the right that anchors the party in an obvious ideological withdrawal that now, with a new wound bleeding and still assuming the shock of 23-J, the leaders who have fallen and been relieved in recent months already point out.

The resignation of Iván Espinosa de los Monteros can be understood as the cause of a crisis to which Vox is now opening up with uncertainty, but it is really the consequence of a year in which the group shed its skin until exposing the seams of the two factions: the liberal-conservative and the national-catholic. Exactly twelve months ago, Macarena Olona put Santiago Abascal's strategy in jeopardy by resuming her public activity after leaving Vox in strange circumstances and embarking with her followers on the Camino de Santiago. The hard wing then took control of the party.

There is no correlation between the break with Olona and the electoral failure two and a half weeks ago, which plunged the formation into 33 deputies, 19 below 2019. In the midst of both milestones Vox expanded its territorial structure and articulated a strong local base on 28-M. It was the party that grew the most. However, the national strategy of the party in recent months and the expansion of Alberto Núñez Feijóo's PP did weaken Vox, which led notable controversies in the crucial phase of the race to the polls that penalized the right on 23-J.

Iván Espinosa de los Monteros leaves Vox for “personal reasons”

In the final stretch of the campaign, Abascal predicted greater “tensions” in Catalonia if the right wing reached La Moncloa. Vox challenged the PP in its regional pacts by denying the existence of sexist violence, and in the premises it made controversial decisions, such as the withdrawal of LGTBI flags or the cancellation of cultural shows, which made the PP criticize Vox's “aggressiveness” since the left to base its electoral campaign on a fight against the “censorship” that the right activated in its new administrations. The result was an exceptional mobilization of the progressive voter in order to defend everything that Vox promised to repeal if it finally governed: feminism, the 2030 Agenda, equality laws or nationalisms.

Before, the political ecosystem of the right reached the pre-electoral terrain with turbulence. Vox tried since the beginning of the year to show itself as the only real alternative to sanchismo after symbolically breaking with the PP by knocking down the budgets of Isabel Díaz Ayuso in the Community of Madrid. This led to tensions in other regions, such as those related to abortion and fetal heartbeat in Castilla y León, one of the worst confrontations with the popular ones that diverted the focus from the reform of the crimes of embezzlement and sedition carried out by the Government of coalition.

Something similar happened weeks later, in the midst of a political storm due to the effects of the “only yes is yes” law, when Abascal selected economist Ramón Tamames, 89, who opposes Vox, as a candidate for a motion of no confidence with no chance of success.. It only served for his “self-promotion”, public joke and presentation as a future candidate of Yolanda Díaz, to whom Pedro Sánchez gave the role of responding to the old communist. Vox, by the way, will no longer be able to present motions of censure or appeals before the Constitutional Court as it does not have enough deputies. An added difficulty to the already complex strategy faced by the parliamentary group after the departure of its iconic leader.

electoral lists

The relationship between Abascal and Espinosa de los Monteros was partly twisted by the preparation of the lists of 23-J. Vox dispensed with deputies related to the spokesperson and with a liberal profile. He left out Víctor Sánchez del Real, one of the first party strategists and the ideologue of the successful 2018 Andalusian campaign, the takeoff of Vox. Also to Rubén Manso, prominent economist. Yesterday, in a forum in Vozpópuli, Manso accused Vox of becoming his caricature and was of the opinion that the departure of Espinosa de los Monteros augurs that the party will be the first of his European current to “fail” and sink.

Instead, the party opted for a new generation of parliamentarians: Pepa Millán, a former senator, or Jacobo Robatto, one of the architects of Olona's failed campaign in Andalusia in June 2022.. Ignacio Hoces, deputy secretary of Vox Institutional and new strong man at the top, also disembarks. He attended the farewell to Espinosa de los Monteros yesterday in Congress and will reinforce his role in the party, although it is taken for granted that the open crisis will now cause a profound reorganization that will surely generate more internal movements.

In any case, the restructuring will take place without altering the power accumulated at the top of the party, reinforced just over a month ago through a statutory reform approved by the militants shortly before the start of the electoral campaign.. Thanks to it, the Vox leadership increases its control by toughening the sanctions against those party members who damage the political brand, as well as those who disregard guidelines or instructions given by the party leaders.. A movement that reinforces the vertical structure of Vox, with Abascal as the unquestionable leader and flanked by his two trusted people in the political sphere: Jorge Buxadé and Ignacio Garriga. The resignation of Iván Espinosa de los Monteros and the wave of support he has received from the fallen of Vox -Manso, Sánchez del Real, Ortega Smith, Olona- corroborates that the party is growing in a single direction. On the table remains the question of whether the parliamentary group will follow that path with its new spokesman.