The amnesty makes it difficult for the Canarian Coalition to support Sánchez and leans towards abstention

The support of the Canarian Coalition for the investiture of Pedro Sánchez will not be so easy, even if its demands are accepted. The Canarian nationalists have added a clause on amnesty in the hypothetical agreement. The rejection among their electorate of the agreement with the PSOE weighs and they want to know “before we get on that train” what the socialists will agree with the Catalan independentists. Sources from the party led by the president of the Canary Islands, Fernando Clavijo, maintain that “to this day” a pact with Sánchez would not be understood either in the party or among his electorate if he finally accepts an amnesty law..

In this scenario, and even accepting their demands based on the Canarian agenda and the transfer of pending items in the budgets, the same sources are inclined towards abstention. His reading is that, if the legislature gets underway, the PSOE will also have to go to them to get their vote.. When the first law is debated or when the following budgets are presented.

The value of its only deputy in Congress, Cristina Valido, is that it would be crucial for the Executive to only need the abstention of Junts or one of the other groups of the sovereigntist bloc instead of their vote in favor. A support that would facilitate governability for Sánchez when parliamentary arithmetic closes the door to variable geometry. If the debate on the territorial model is opened during this legislature, as the PNV demands, the Canarian nationalists would also enter the equation. Canarian Coalition positions itself in favor of facing this debate. Both to reinforce its more identity profile and to demand full compliance with the “acquired rights” in the Statute of Autonomy of the Canary Islands and to aspire to guarantee the treatment of an outermost region recognized by the EU..

Its objective is to position itself as a hinge and not fit into any block, after supporting Feijóo's investiture and opening up to do the same in Sánchez's. “We are not in those two blocks,” explained Valido during his intervention in Feijóo's investiture debate with an argument against polarization. Likewise, he stressed that “the mandate of the Canary Islands is to solve their problems.”. Proof of this versatility is that they already distanced themselves from the PP in the first plenary session to support the use of co-official languages in Congress. Then they joined the bloc made up of the PSOE and its potential investiture partners (Sumar, ERC, Junts, EH Bildu, PNV and BNG).

If they finally abstain from Sánchez's investiture, the socialists would not be able to lower the price of Junts by continuing to specify their vote in favor. However, at Moncloa they assure that the agreement with Carles Puigdemont's party will not change, even if it is worth their abstention.. Another thing would be during the legislature, which would give him greater margin. The Government of Pedro Sánchez broke the mold this term by managing to approve three consecutive budgets with a minority coalition. However, it had some margin to try a variable geometry in laws that some of its partners did not support or decrees such as the labor reform.. Now, they have no alternatives and the minorities do the math to anticipate when they would be essential given the abstention of some other group..

Winks and suspicions

Government negotiators are convinced of being able to attract Canarian nationalists. As they move forward, they are willing to sign the so-called Canarian agenda. The same list of demands that the Canarian nationalists agreed with the PP in exchange for their vote in the investiture of Alberto Núñez Feijóo. Likewise, sources from the Treasury leadership assure that they have no problem sitting down with the formation to review the pending transfers to this territory in the current budgets.. An advance payment without which CC will not even agree to negotiate.

As a first nod, the Interior has agreed to call the Canary Islands to the immigration meetings, with the aim of strengthening collaboration between administrations. A presence that they have been demanding insistently since they acceded to the regional Executive in the last elections..

The Canarian Coalition's misgivings about the PSOE are also due to the fact that, firstly, they have not met with the socialists since the week prior to the formation of the Congressional Board.. Then, they did not reach an agreement, after the PSOE offered a “minimum pact” based on extending free public transport, and they chose to support the PP candidate for the presidency of Congress.. Secondly, because they require a double guarantee to secure the budget items that have not yet been received.. That is, those that can be executed on time are transferred immediately, before the end of the year, and the rest are committed to the 2024 accounts..