The Calviño mystery complicates the formation of the Government for Sánchez

The uncertainty about whether Nadia Calviño will finally be the new president of the European Investment Bank (EIB) makes it difficult for Pedro Sánchez to form the Government, now that the agreement with Junts has completely cleared the investiture. At Moncloa they counted on the fact that at this point it would be more than clear that she was the chosen one.. The process has been delayed and although his candidacy has had the support of Germany in recent hours, Sánchez may be forced to decide on its continuity, without having the EIB chair completely tied..

In just one week, there will be a new Government. The plenary session for the president to obtain the confidence of the Chamber will be held on the 15th and 16th, this Wednesday and Thursday, and has a sufficient absolute majority to be appointed president in the first vote. This means that the inauguration before the King would be on Friday and that he will immediately focus on the composition of the new coalition Executive.. The ministers would be sworn in that same Monday, if Sánchez acts as he did four years ago.

The decision about Calviño is crucial. The president must decide whether to remain in the Government and in January, once it has been clarified whether he will go to the EIB, he makes a new adjustment to his Cabinet. Or if he directly leaves her out, confident that the future of his vice president is in Luxembourg, especially now that the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has guaranteed his support, in a bilateral meeting with Sánchez during the congress of European socialists in Malaga.

The vice president's purpose has always been to remain in the Executive until the end of the year, to complete the Spanish presidency of the EU, and then leave for the Investment Bank. Government sources assure that it has been agreed upon with the president. But internally, both in the Government and in the party, it is not fully understood that she will be ratified as head of the Ministry of Economy in mid-November to leave the position in just a month and a half.. “It is not known whether the vice president herself repeats or not” and that causes “several alignments in the air,” say the sources consulted..

“The great name”

The importance of Calviño's position is not only due to the relevance of the economic area, but also because it affects the distribution of vice presidencies.. She now occupies the first position, but whoever replaces her can only be a minister and thus return to a political vice presidency (as in the period of Carmen Calvo), for which the one who sounds the most strongly is María Jesús Montero.

That Calviño's future is not clear, they recognize in the game, is a “problem”, because Sánchez is expected to make a “clean” in his team. “New stage, new Government,” they point out. The feeling that there will be many changes is widespread in the Executive and in the PSOE. And it is very possible that it will also affect the spokespersons in Congress and the Senate.. It is sensed that the replacement “will be important” because, and there is also great unanimity on this, a Government “with more political capacity” is needed.. “We need bigger people”. But “the big name,” they say, may be the person in charge of Economy.

In large companies and in the financial sector, possible replacements for Calviño are beginning to be heard.. The one who sounds the most is José Luis Escrivá, Minister of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration. The vice president's current number two, the Secretary of State for the Economy, Gonzalo García Andrés, is also seen as capable..

Although in the financial sector it is considered that there could be traffic between Plaza de Cibeles (Bank of Spain) and the ministry. The mandates of the governor, Pablo Hernández de Cos, and the deputy governor, Margarita Delgado, expire in the middle of next year, so they might not frown upon occupying the economic portfolio.

De Cos seems complicated, because he was already related to the possible PP Government, and Delgado has a very banking profile. There could be a third option, the advisor of the Bank of Spain Soledad Núñez, who held top economic positions in José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero's team.. Sánchez will also have to think the other way around: who he places at the Bank of Spain in a few months, for which similar names such as Escrivá and Delgado are being considered..

Calviño's candidacy for the EIB has taken longer than expected. When the economic vice president announced her intention to compete for the position, on August 11, the result was expected to be known at the European summit that took place in mid-September in Santiago.. However, the decision has been delayed meeting after meeting of the Economy Ministers (Ecofin), to the point that the Belgian Finance Minister, Vincent van Peteghem, has urged Germany and France to opt.. Germany has just done it and the interpretation in the Government is that Scholz has not taken this step without first discussing it with Paris.

Despite this, to obtain this position the support of 68% of capital is required, for which the support of the large shareholders is essential (Germany, France, which has not yet made a statement, Italy and Spain) and, furthermore, that 18 of the 28 countries approve. So German support is important, but not definitive. Therefore, although the process can be resolved in the extraordinary Ecofin at the end of the month or in the already scheduled one at the beginning of December, in the financial environment it is not ruled out that Germany's support will not be sufficient and the process will be delayed until 2024, although implies an extension of the current president of the EIB.

With one scenario or another, Calviño's plan is to continue until the Spanish presidency ends. The vice president has led the negotiation of the future fiscal rules of the EU, which is now entering its final phase. Calviño would like to close the file, the main one of the Spanish semester and which will mark a milestone in the history of the club's economic governance. The agreement before the end of the year will determine the success or failure of the Spanish presidency of the Council of the EU in economic aspects.. If the pact is not closed before December 31, 2023, the calendar will begin to accumulate delays and it will be difficult to complete the reform in this European legislature.

Although the technical work is being led by Carlos Cuerpo, Secretary of the Treasury, there will be a given moment, between the last weeks of November and the first half of December, when the matter will require political involvement.. That would be the moment in which Calviño, or the person who occupies the Ministry of Economy, should get involved.. The last fringes are always the most difficult to close. And in these negotiations the personal aspect matters a lot: that the minister in charge of the presidency knows his colleagues personally, that he knows if the German minister is bluffing or if he is serious, that he knows how to build consensus and understand the dynamics of what happens in the room. That would be an even more difficult job for a newly elected minister. Some factors that will surely be on the table when Sánchez designs his team.