In a war, strategy and calculation are more important than courage.. This is what Sun Tzu said 2,500 years ago in that treatise on the art of war that does not lose its validity. The Chinese strategist and philosopher attached great importance to the spirit of victory as long as the ability to foresee did not diminish. Forms in an electoral campaign fortunately have nothing to do with those of a war scenario, but, as in a war, precise calculation and a successful strategy are essential to achieve victory.
Although this Thursday night the electoral campaign for the municipal and regional elections on May 28 has officially started, we have spent months with national politics immersed in an election dynamic that shows where each one is going to try to convince the public that his proposals are the best imaginable and those of his rivals would lead us to disaster. Exaggeration in both senses is part of the tradition of campaigns without anyone having shown that hyperboles provide those who practice them with the alleged reliability to get people on their side.
As in war, the morale of victory is essential to win in an electoral contest, and it is not easy for a sad and timid candidate to have any chance of prospering.. Consequently, it is understood that even the worst portrayed in the polls express themselves publicly as if the polls were going to smile on them, but a touch of humility would convey greater credibility than fantasizing about obtaining tremendous results.
Modesty is undervalued in politics and even more so in electoral periods, to the point of submerging its protagonists in a cloud of complacency in which they lose their sense of reality.. The greatest risk of this drift is the projection of expectations of victory so exaggerated that if they are not fully achieved, they can be interpreted as defeat.. That happened to the PP in the regional elections of Castilla y León, warned by the party leadership as a military parade. Fernández Mañueco's candidacy won the elections, but not with the announced ease. He had to swallow the toad of agreeing with Vox and the sensation transmitted was that of having made bread with some cakes.
In Genoa they seem to have learned their lesson and are trying not to raise their prospects of victory too much in these next elections on 28-M, already perceived as a first round of the general elections at the end of the year. The “repeal of Sanchismo” seems, however, too risky given the president's proven ability to survive and the possibilities that the rest of the legislature presents to him to sell economic and social measures with much more positive macro figures than what was expected and an evolution of the labor market stubbornly contrary to the catastrophic omens that the opposition attributed to the increases in the minimum wage and the labor reform.
Sánchez is seen this Friday with Biden in the White House and in the summer he will preside over the EU with all the packaging that this provides him. Nor does the message sent from the Government and the PSOE, deeming the so-called 'Feijóo effect' dead, respond to reality. Although the latest polls have reduced the initial momentum after the arrival of the Galician, the popular leader manages to maintain a perception of strength and solvency that is not inconsiderable.
Sun Tzu said that it is essential to know well the capabilities of the adversary and that taking it lightly leads inevitably to defeat.. And that message is still valid as well.