The CIS challenges all the polls and gives the PSOE the winner in the municipal elections
The Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) continues with its dissenting trend from the rest of the polls on voting intentions and in its pre-election poll it places the PSOE as the winning party in the municipal elections on May 28. The institute led by José Félix Tezanos estimates that the Socialists would win 31.7% of the ballots in the town halls throughout Spain, thus taking almost four points from the second, the PP, which would obtain 27.3% of the votes .
The survey reflects a clear dominance of the two big parties in the municipal elections and reveals a certain recovery of the bipartisanship, which would represent almost 60% of the votes.
The third most voted force would be Unidas Podemos and its different brands in the communities, with an estimate of 7.9%. Vox would remain as the fourth most voted party, with 6.8% of the votes.
Behind would be the Catalan separatists, ERC and Junts, who would take around 2.5% of the ballots; ahead of Más País, which would accumulate 2% of the votes. Ciudadanos collapses and 1.7% of voters would choose him, a percentage similar to that of Bildu, PNV and Compromís, who would obtain 1.4% of the votes.
The next regional and municipal elections will be key to predicting in which direction the results of the general elections scheduled for the end of the year will go. It will also be the first battle between Pedro Sánchez and Alberto Núñez Feijóo, after the current PP leader took over the party a little over a year ago.
The survey reveals the intention to vote of the Spaniards through 21,973 interviews carried out between April 10 and 16. Also this Thursday, data has been published on the regional elections that will be held on the same 28-M, with data from the main cities of the country.
The big cities
For the mayoralty of Barcelona, for example, the commons would accumulate the majority of the votes (24.8%), which would translate into between 11 and 13 councilors in the city council. The PSC would follow with just 2.3 points of difference, chosen as the second option for the people of Barcelona with 22.5% (10-12 councillors).. Junts would be the third most voted party with 17.3% (8-9 councilors), and ERC would obtain 13.2% and 6 to 7 councilors.
In the capital, the PP would be the first force in the mayoralty of Madrid, with 38% of the votes and from 21 to 25 councilors. It would do so with a comfortable advantage of 11.3 points over the second most voted political force, Más Madrid, which would obtain 38% of the ballots (21-25 councilors).. In third place would be the PSOE, with 16% of the votes (22 points less than the popular ones), which would imply its representation in the Madrid city council with between 8 and 11 councilors. However, and given that according to the poll there would be a tie on the left (PSOE and Más Madrid), the color of the municipal government will depend on whether Podemos and Ciudadanos obtain representation.
Nothing to do with his position in Seville, where the Socialists would be the first party with almost 40% of the votes (39.6%) and 14 to 15 councilors. He could govern again with the support of Con Andalucía, which would obtain 9.7% of the votes. Thus, the support of the coalition of IU, Podemos and Más País, gives him 3 councilors. The PP would be the second force with 33% (12-13 councilors), and Vox could become the fourth political force with 7.7% of the estimated vote (3 councilors).
In Valencia, the left would revalidate its leadership in the capital of the community, although with a stronger Compromís that would accumulate 30.4% of the ballots (and between 11 and 12 councilors).. The popular ones would be the second force, with 20% and 10 councillors; while the PSOE would be relegated to third force, just half a point behind the PP, with 19.5% and 7 councilors.