The CIS of Tezanos gives victory to Colau in Barcelona, with Collboni only one councilor away
The mayoress of Barcelona and candidate for Barcelona En Comú, Ada Colau, would be the winner of the elections in the Catalan capital (11-13 councillors), followed closely by the socialist Jaume Collboni (10-12), according to the pre-election survey. of the CIS on the municipal elections of May 28. The CIS is not as optimistic as the surveys of some Catalan media about the prospects of Xavier Trias, which are lowered in a very important way.
According to the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), Xavier Trias (Junts per Catalunya) would achieve 8-9 councilors, while Ernest Maragall (ERC), the candidate with the most votes in 2019, would be relegated to fourth place (6-7).. In the fall of Ernest Maragall, the CIS survey does agree with the rest of the published survey works.
Daniel Sirera would add 2-3 councilors for the PP, while Ciudadanos, Valents, Vox or the CUP would not enter the Barcelona City Council.
With this panorama, Colau would have a very difficult time forging a pact different from the current one, since the majority in the consistory of the Catalan capital is in 21 councilors. The simplest formula for Ada Colau to be able to take the mayor's baton again would be to repeat the pact with the Catalan socialists. With the CIS data in hand, there is no other alternative. Ada Colau could reissue the current government but without external support, such as the one given by Manuel Valls in 2019.
None of the candidates have enough votes to govern the Barcelona City Council alone. In the debate on TVE, Colau assured that she would love to lead a tripartite with ERC and PSC. But everything points to the fact that the Republicans will not be necessary. Ernest Maragall and his continuist list does not augur well in the polls. On the other hand, Daniel Sirera could hold the key to an alternative pact to Colau, if Trias chooses to fulfill his main promise: to oust Colau, and for that he would support Collboni as mayor.