The CIS of Tezanos leaves the Government of Almeida in the air with a right-left tie

José Luis Martínez-Almeida will win the 28-M elections, but could lose the mayoralty of Madrid to the left, according to the CIS of Tezanos. The PP candidate would obtain 28% of the votes and between 21 and 25 councilors, he would need another four supports to achieve an absolute majority in the plenary session of Cibeles (29 representatives) and for that he would need the support of Vox. Those of Abascal would get 7.4% of the votes and between four and five seats. Más Madrid and the PSOE could also reach said threshold.

More Madrid would obtain 26.7% of the votes with between 13 and 18 seats, the PSOE would reach 16% and between eight and 11 councilors. Taking the maximum forks, both add up to 29 councilors. The board is very tight because Ciudadanos and Podemos could also enter, as long as they exceed 5% of the votes.

The two could unbalance the balance to one side or the other and have the same chance of entering Cibeles. The estimate of votes for the former is 4.5%, and for the latter, 4.3%.. The most optimistic forecasts give them, respectively, 5.8 and 5.6% of the vote. If the maximum projection is fulfilled, Podemos would obtain four councilors, and Ciudadanos, three.

Community of Madrid

Isabel Díaz Ayuso, however, would obtain an absolute majority in the Community of Madrid, with a vote estimate of 45.2% and between 61 and 70 deputies. The majority in the regional Assembly is at 68 seats. Más Madrid would continue to lead the left, with 21.4% and 29-30 seats, against PSOE (17.3% and between 19-26 representatives). Podemos would surpass Vox by three tenths, with an estimated 6.6% and 6.3%, respectively. The purple party would get between eight and 10 deputies, and Abascal’s party would get between eight and 11.