In elections that are considered as a first round of the general elections at the end of the year, the CIS once again gives unfounded wings to the PSOE. It already did so in 2019, when Tezanos forecasts anticipated that Ángel Gabilondo would preside over the Community of Madrid, Carmena would continue to lead the City Council and Pilar Alegría would rise as mayoress of Zaragoza. none of that happened. After being defeated at the polls, the three Socialist candidates ended up leaving the positions for which they were elected.

The same situation is repeated this time, at the gates of a critical 28-M for the aspirations of an Alberto Núñez Feijóo who all the polls place above Sánchez. The trap with which Tezanos plays, point out independent analysts consulted by this newspaper, is that most of the electoral forks are too wide and, in general, too directed. In other cases, the samples are too small, always favoring the PSOE.

This is a constant that has been repeated since Sánchez appointed Tezanos in June 2018. “The CIS would augur a victory for Sánchez in the American primaries”, the Andalusian president, Juanma Moreno, ironized this Thursday, who asked the director of the Center to at least “keep the forms” so as “not to disrespect the citizens”.

“If these are the data, let's imagine the reality,” added sources from the Madrid PP, one of the few who would win the elections with a clarity “that not even Tezanos has been able to hide.”

[Tezanos pushes the PSOE campaign with his CIS: he says that Page, Lambán and Ximo Puig will continue to govern]

As has been the case on previous occasions, the publication of the public barometer has come wrapped in controversy. Opposition groups have not given credibility to this survey for a long time, but last March Podemos also accused Tezanos of “manipulation” and asked him for “explanations”. Félix Bolaños, Minister of the Presidency, had to come out to defend the current president of the CIS and formerly a member of the PSOE Executive: “The technical criteria are beyond any doubt.”

In reality, the technical criteria are the ones that cause the controversy to each barometer. The forks and samplings mentioned above give rise to different interpretations based on the same data: that of the CIS painting practically all the autonomous communities red is one, yes, but other analyzes and kitchens present some very different realities that could be much more favorable to the PP.

alternative analyzes

In the case of the Valencian Community, for example, Tezanos predicts a third edition of the Botanic Pact (formed by PSOE, Compromís and Unidas Podemos), but the reality is that the data also includes a possible sum of the PP and Vox, enough to govern. In the case of Aragón, an alternative interpretation of the CIS results would give the majority to Javier Azcón (PP), who with 29 seats could govern hand in hand with Vox (5) without resorting to Aragón Existe.

The most “blatant” case —as the analysts consulted point out— would be that of Castilla-La Mancha. Where Tezanos gives an absolute majority to the PSOE alone, the royal forks contemplate that he could be overestimating socialism by up to 6 seats and underestimating the strength of the PP by a maximum of 10. This gap would be key when it comes to setting up Parliament, granting government to one side or the other of the chamber.

[The CIS of Tezanos gives Ayuso an absolute majority and leaves Almeida pending from United We Can]

If some data can be interpreted in various ways, there are others that are not even worthy of trust.. As regards the Government of the Balearic Islands (which also grants to the PSOE), Tezanos' analyzes must be taken with a grain of salt, since they are carried out from only 400 direct surveys, too few to paint a clear scenario.

Tezanos gives air to Sánchez

The surveys paint a particularly critical situation in the Valencian Community, which many consider key to the change of positions. Tezanos states that, this time, Carlos Mazón's PP could win the elections.. but without possibilities of reaching the government. The socialist Ximo Puig would reissue the Botanic Pact with Compromís and Podemos for the third time. At its highest fork, those of Feijóo would be four seats away from achieving the investiture.

In Aragon, for its part, everything is played on the edge of the knife. The socialist Javier Lambán would have serious difficulties to revalidate the presidency, but a possible pact with Chunta, Podemos and Izquierda Unida would return power to the PSOE. Aragón Existe would play a key role, and if Lambán's prognosis worsened, it would have governance in its hands.

In Castilla-La Mancha, contrary to the vast majority of the surveys published by the newspapers these days, Emiliano García-Page would obtain an absolute majority. The Manchego would be a parliament with very little fragmentation, since Podemos would not reach the minimum required to obtain representation. The sum of PP and Vox would be far from seizing power.

There are few doubts in Madrid, where the victory of Isabel Díaz Ayuso is not in question and — just like Page in Castilla-La Mancha — she would rub her fingers towards an absolute majority without depending on anyone. Much more complicated would be his municipal tandem, José Luis Martínez-Almeida, who would see very closely a sum of the left led by Rita Maestre.

The Más Madrid candidate would stay at the gates of the Mayor's Office due to the absence of Podemos, which would not reach enough 5% by the hair to achieve representation in the Consistory.

The same pattern is repeated in Asturias, where Adrián Barbón would maintain the presidency, but would need Podemos. The sum of PP and Vox would be far from being enough. In Navarra, the fragmentation of the right after the breakup of the PP and UPN would once again facilitate the presidency of the socialist María Chivite, with the help of Bildu and Geroa Bai, without any major problem.

The map prior to the elections on May 28 in the communities in dispute is as follows: the PP governs in 2 of the 12 regions at stake (Madrid and Murcia), while the PSOE governs in 9 (Asturias, Navarra , Balearic Islands, La Rioja, Canary Islands, Valencia, Aragon, Castilla-La Mancha and Extremadura). The rest, Cantabria, is in the hands of Miguel Ángel Revilla's PRC, who could also lose the Executive.

It is true that territorial power, in 2019, turned around in favor of the socialists and that the map was stained red. But of the five Communities that do not enter the fray within two weeks, three are in the hands of those from Feijóo: Galicia, Andalusia and Castilla y León. There is party.