The errors in the polls that explain why nobody got the result of 23-J right

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The result of 23-J has been far from what the majority of the polls indicated during the campaign. A good part of the demoscopic houses announced a victory for the block of the right that has not finally occurred. Also a fall of Pedro Sánchez that has not occurred. The electoral night of this Sunday now confirms that the polls outlined an overrepresentation of the PP and an underestimation of the PSOE. The experts consulted agree on the diagnosis that none was able to accurately measure to what extent the Socialists were going to absorb the entire nationalist vote, especially in Catalonia. Nor was the reaction to Vox after its policies at the regional and local level.

The polls gave the PSOE around 108 seats, 14 less than the 122 obtained this Sunday. Sánchez, who has once again displayed his resistance manual, has even improved the results of the 2019 elections, when he stayed at 120, and has gone from 28% to 31.7% of the votes. Only the CIS predicted his ascent, although he shot it up to a maximum range of 135 reps. “Studies have not accurately collected the movements of the last week and especially the wonderful campaign of the PSOE after the debate with Feijóo and its ability to reach young people,” says Isabel Peleteiro, general director of IMOP-Insights. This entity, a reference for El Confidencial, is the one that has most adjusted the result of the popular leader, with a range of between 134 and 142 seats.

The sum of the PP and Vox has been far from expectations, with 169 seats and seven of the absolute majority. Although the studies published until this Sunday warned of a more or less equal scenario in the comparison of the blocks, the bulk of the polls clearly suggested the victory of the right, even around 180 deputies in the most optimistic forecasts.. From GAD3, the company directed by Narciso Michavila, they recognize that they weighted the popular ones several points above reality, partly because they did not detect their exhaustion in the final stretch of the campaign.

One of the great keys, according to the polling houses consulted, is in the useful vote for the PSOE in Catalonia and the Basque Country. Although in the last stretch of the campaign the upward trend of the socialists in these territories was reflected, none knew how to accurately assess the transfer of the nationalist vote and the growth in Sánchez's deputies. “The PSOE has absorbed nationalism with great intensity,” indicates another of the companies consulted, which also highlights a slowdown in the flow of socialist voters who opted for the PP.

Sánchez rose in Catalonia as the first option, dominating the four provinces, going from 12 to 19 deputies and displacing ERC from the board, which fell from 13 to seven representatives in the Congress of Deputies. In Euskadi, the PSOE also rose as the first force with six percentage points more than in 2019, rising from 19.3% to 25.3%. In Navarra, for their part, the Socialists won a representative and stood out from the rest of the formations with 27.4% of the votes. “The change was clear and we all pointed it out, but we did not know how to calibrate the exact amount,” adds Peleteiro.

Vox reactive vote

The experts point out a second issue that has to do with the reactive vote for Vox, which has promoted the Socialists and did not influence the predictions either.. Although the PSOE figures were supported at the beginning of the campaign in recognition of its management in the Government, the trend changed at the end of the campaign, mutating into a response to the policies developed by the ultra-conservative formation in the autonomous governments and the municipalities where it has formed coalitions with the PP, especially in terms of equality.. “There has been a vote to avoid the consequences of the alliance of the PP and Vox,” underlines the director of IMOP.

This reading is shared by other analysts, who consider that a kind of “patriotism” of the party against Vox has prevailed.. The reality is that it is impossible for the right to govern with an absolute majority, with Alberto Núñez Feijóo with 136 deputies and the formation led by Santiago Abascal with 33 (19 less than in 2019).. The scenario after this 23-J is blocking and everything remains in the hands of JxCAT. The formation led by the fugitive Carles Puigdemont has the key to governance with a vote in favor of the investiture of Pedro Sánchez or an abstention, by adding one more vote to the left bloc.

The failure of the polls is not a novelty. In all electoral processes it is common for the results to deviate from the polls and do not coincide with the final count, but the truth is that this time it has been higher than in previous elections. The companies consulted acknowledge the slip and make an examination of conscience, although they also point out the difficulties in conducting the interviews, with problems in contacting citizens because they are on vacation. Be that as it may, the controversy surrounding the polls continues and fuels criticism from left and right.