The fear of a frightened final for Puigdemont hovers over the negotiation: "He already succumbed in 2017"

The Unilateral Declaration of Independence of the Catalan Parliament, on October 27, 2017, to be a “State” in the form of a “republic”, opened a new chapter in the history of Spain. Six years later, national politics is still subject to an event that was very close to being avoided.. In the previous hours there were conversations on multiple sides to convince Carles Puigdemont to stop the DUI and call regional elections. Many of those involved in that negotiation, including Lendakari Iñigo Urkullu and relevant figures from the PSOE and the PP, went to bed the day before with the conviction that they would do so.. But the former president of the Generalitat finally backed down.

“He could not resist the pressure from ERC, from the most radical independence movement and from a good part of his own,” they remember in the PSOE. The precedent of that scare now flies over the conversations that the socialists have with Junts to support the investiture of Pedro Sánchez. They value very positively that Puigdemont is willing to negotiate. “What is clear is that they have decided to play and that in itself is a sign,” party sources say.. But they also assume that this does not entail “presupposing anything” about the outcome.. In 2017, they do not forget, “he succumbed at the last moment”.

Puigdemont's personality causes concern in the PSOE and the PNV because it is a factor that influenced then and can do so now. He knows, socialist sources confirm, that “he has won the lottery”, that he has “a great opportunity”. The question is, they emphasize, “if it is capable of sustaining that over time”. They have this same misgiving in the PNV, despite the fact that the years that have passed and the recent visit that Andoni Ortuzar made to Brussels have helped to close the rift between Puigdemont and Basque nationalism due to the breaking of the commitment with Urkullu.. Despite that meeting, the feeling they convey is that the agreement cannot be taken for granted, although they recognize that “both parties are going to try with seriousness and determination.”. They agree with the PSOE that “Puigdemont is going to play the ball”, but they add that “another thing is that he knows how to play it”.

The socialists assume that what happened in 2017 – the critical moment that the former president faced – is not comparable to the decision he must make now: facilitate the investiture, agree on the end of the criminal charge of the process and give stability to the legislature. The pressure on him is “much less”. But they are not deceived about its unpredictable nature: “Until the negotiation is closed, victory cannot be declared”.

Those who know him well also agree that it cannot be ruled out that everything will derail in the end.. He is described as “crazy”, but this is an absolute “simplification”, explain sources close to him.. He is a “man loaded with faith”, dedicated to a cause, a “prophet” to whom classical reasoning cannot be applied.. He lives cloistered and does not offer anyone clear signs of his true intentions.. In that sense, they see it as feasible that he could give another “scare”.

All those consulted assume that the process to reach an agreement “is not going to be easy”, neither for the acting president nor for the hard wing of the independence movement, which threatens to show its rejection with an electoral candidacy around the ANC ( Catalan National Assembly). But interpretations of how it can develop are disparate.. Those who consider that Puigdemont will make Sánchez “suffer” a lot before supporting him in the investiture, if he finally does so. And those who think that in Catalonia the possibility of an amnesty has spread so much, as the last step of a “reconciliation”, that not even he will be able to avoid it. Going to elections, they reason, would mean that the option of leaving many people without jail, disqualification or fines disappears.. And this also influences the former president.

“They are going to take advantage of the opportunity”

In the thesis that there is no other way out, there are very relevant leaders of the PSOE who do not hide their conviction that Junts “is going to renounce its maximum positions”, in reference to the fact that unilateralism or other commitments that do not exist must be left behind. detail. “They are going to take advantage of the opportunity”. They believe that the positions will become clearer, once the commemoration of the illegal 1-O referendum passes, and that then the negotiation will truly be addressed.. Meanwhile, secrecy is total and even Junts is so dedicated to preserving conversations that it refuses to answer questions about common topics..

In the PNV they also think that everything will be clear in the first half of October. Sánchez has already said that the moment he receives the order from the King, once Feijóo's investiture fails, he will speak “with total frankness” and will be “coherent” with “the policy of normalization and stabilization of Catalonia.”. Until that arrives, the PSOE coexists with intense noise around a possible amnesty. Internally, mainly by former leaders, but also with interference in the process by two of its partners: Sumar and ERC, whom they perceive as “two elements of dispersion”.

Regarding Yolanda Díaz, criticism from the PSOE persists because they consider that she is dedicated only to “messing up” in her public statements. But socialist sources assure that he does not maintain an open channel with Junts on the issues surrounding the investiture.. They also point out that nothing he says has any influence on the negotiation because they have already established a “level of trust” with Puigdemont's party, which protects them from what is happening around them..

Despite being an unpredictable leader, there is a lot of confidence in Moncloa that an agreement can be reached.. Catalan society itself demands it, they maintain.. The vote for the PSC in the 23-J elections, highlighted by this organization, is that of many people, including pro-independence supporters, who want the real problems to be addressed and the page turned.. A position, Government sources emphasize, in which a very important part of the Catalan employers' association is located.. Although sources from the Catalan socialists clarify that the businessmen will not speak out publicly, they do believe that it creates a “context” in favor. Will it influence Puigdemont? Well, really, in the PSC they believe that no, that the opinion of the Catalan bourgeoisie is not “relevant” for him. But even so, they see the investiture as possible.