The latest calculations of the PP: "Hidden vote plus" in favor in Valencia and Aragon and against with Page and Vara
They say it with a small mouth, afraid of malfario. They also say it with the doubts of someone who sees politics from the inside, with a tubular vision.. And they say it with the handbrake on because all the polls agree that everything is very close. They say it as a spell or as a self-affirmation therapy. but they say it. The main leaders of the PP say it and repeat it every time they are asked: “Things are going very well.”
The things are the trackings -to which this day has accessed
io-, in which the
popular
rise and consolidate majorities with
Vox
, on the demoscopic role. The general feeling in the main opposition party is that the PP will recover some of the great fiefdoms of the
PSOE
and that he will obtain a victory in the global calculation of the local elections, but there is a high halo of uncertainty. Everything will depend on the “hidden vote plus” that “sure” there will be on Sunday, reveals a leader of the immediate environment of
Feijóo
.
This leader calculates that this percentage of votes will be final in at least five communities. In
Valencian Community
and
Aragon
, that “plus” will fall on the side of the PP, he assures, while in
Castilla la Mancha
and
Estremadura
He believes that it will be the socialist barons who will benefit from that small percentage of the vote that passes under the radar of the polls, but that “there will be”, like the witches that promoted the absolute majorities of Feijóo.
The internal polls of the PP predict the absolute majority for the sum with Vox both in Aragon and in the Valencian Community. Just yesterday, the
tracking
They were no longer located so much in the “photo finish” between blocks as in a somewhat more consolidated front on the right. The absolute majority of the Valencian Parliament is 50 seats, and the right already surpasses it in the fork.
The polls that Page manages give him a comfortable absolute majority
The bloc is also above the 34 that mark governability in Aragon, although with the doubt, yes, of whether
citizens
will come into
Saragossa
-the threshold is 3%-. On the contrary, the
PSOE
handles polls in which PP and Vox stay just on the brink of the absolute Aragonese majority. It all depends, therefore, on
Aragon exists
.
In Castilla-La Mancha, the popular leadership believes that
Emiliano Garcia-Page
is bordering on an absolute majority, which is 17 parliamentarians. “16-17”, says one of the main leaders, who believes that the socialist baron could also have that “plus” of undecided voters in his favor.
Demoscopy diverges in this community. If the daily polls of the PP of Castilla-La Mancha yesterday showed the fixed photo of a very, very fair majority for the right, those of the PSOE gave Page twice as many seats as
Paco Nunez
, and a very comfortable absolute majority. “We are going to get 20 points.”
In
Balearics
, in Genoa they assure that the battle of arithmetic is going to be “very even”, while in the team of
Marga Prohens
They consider the sum consolidated with Vox or with the
Pi-Proposal for the Balearic Islands
: “There will be change, sure”. And the PP of Extremadura clings to a surprise that in Genoa they do not see as disposable, but not easy either. “Anything can happen, we can perfectly win,” they say.
Mazón and Azcón would take power, according to the 'trackings' of the PP
Together with the useful vote of Ciudadanos -to which Feijóo will appeal at the closing of the campaign, together with
Ayuso
and
Almeida
in Ifema, Madrid-, another of the keys to the final sprint of the campaign is what the young people will do. The
popular
They have already begun to see an increase in voters from 18 to 29 years old, “which is the age group where the left is most competitive”. In Genoa they assure that “in 1996 and in 2011 the young people were decisive for the victories of
Aznar
and
Rajoy
», and they add that now, «for the first time» in several years, «the PP has surpassed Vox in that strip».
“In the young vote, Vox beat us and now we would be in a position to be first among young people on the right,” insist the sources consulted. If the gap between the PSOE and the PP in the 29-year-old age bracket narrows, it will be very difficult for Sánchez to achieve good results,” say the conservative leadership.
A third key will be “the remainders”. That is, the last seat in each province. The last parliamentary representative of each province may depend on very few votes. “It can easily dance”, assures one of the main leaders of Genova. If this prognosis is fulfilled, what will decide the result will be, in effect, the “hidden vote bonus.”