The PP seeks alliances with regional parties to minimize the weight of Vox after 28-M

This Friday a key campaign officially started in the face of a scenario with an uncertain result in most of the territories that are facing the polls. In the headquarters of the big parties there is only one certainty: with few exceptions, election night will reaffirm that regional and local governance depends to a large extent on coalition pacts. to the left and to the right. The Popular Party can dye a large part of the territory blue and recover territorial muscle after the crash of May 2019. But its success will depend to a large extent on the agreements that it manages to close with Vox, in whose ranks they already warn that they will make their votes count by asking for seats in key squares.. In the Genoa engine room they seek to limit that dependency and, incidentally, lower the expectations of Abascal's party.

The popular will invite regionalist and local parties with which they share a certain ideological proximity to the negotiation table after 28-M. “It is not the same to need 10 Vox seats as 5”, repeat the PP strategists. In the national leadership of the PP they advance that there will be no common roadmap to close post-electoral agreements, and that they will wait to see how the map looks to analyze their possibilities in each territory. But Genoa is working on a plan B with the aim of opening horizons beyond the party located to its right, and is looking for a kind of territorial alliances with which to get closer to the majority and thus minimize Vox's list of conditions to support investitures. of popular candidates.

Aragon is one of the territories where the strategy could be successful. The latest IMOP-Insights survey for El Confidencial revealed a particularly hard-fought scenario with a technical draw between Javier Lambán's PSOE and Jorge Azcón's PP, with a slight advantage for the second. Four years ago, the socialist baron signed an unprecedented left-wing quadripartite agreement with Podemos, the Chunta Aragonesista and the PAR, but today that sum would be insufficient to revalidate a majority. The same happens in the field on the right. The popular and Vox would not add the 34 seats necessary for an absolute majority. The balance would be tipped by Aragón Existe, which would be in a position to tip it to the highest bidder.

According to the aforementioned survey, Aragón Existe would obtain three deputies, the three for Teruel. The deputy Tomás Guitarte, who heads the movement of Empty Spain in his territory, has already handed over the key to the investiture of Pedro Sánchez in Congress, but the popular Jorge Azcón advances that he will open the doors to join the PP in the region. The regionalist formation has not ruled out, a priori, any contender for the investiture. Aware of what is at stake, the mayor of Zaragoza has wanted to take care of the forms with Guitarte, and has already declared in Spain for examination, a meeting organized by El Confidencial, which unites measures with Teruel Exists, such as the 20% reduction in the prices in Aragón Vacío or the rethinking of renewables in areas with a tourist impact in eastern Turolense.

The PP plan has a risk. The presence of Vox in the equation, even if its support is external, can scare away some regionalist forces, whose red line is to sign a document that also includes the heading of the far-right. Without going any further, Azcón will have to strike a balance if he wants to balance the hypothetical support of Aragón Existe —which categorically rejects a pact with those of Abascal— with that of Vox. Everything will depend on the final result on an election night in which everything indicates that there will be surprises.

In the Canary Islands, the PP would be willing to close an agreement with the Canary Islands Coalition if the numbers arrive to unseat Ángel Víctor Torres, the socialist leader who seems to resist the controversy related to the Tito Berni case, and who touched him closely. The list of the popular, headed by Manuel Domínguez, could surpass that of the former Canarian president Fernando Clavijo, but would remain in second position against a PSOE that continues first in the polls. Vox could scratch up to 4 seats, so, again, the popular ones would try to isolate the greens and reduce their influence to a minimum.

In recent weeks, the PP has also been closely watching the political movements that are taking place in Cantabria, where they glimpse a “collapse” of the PRC of Miguel Ángel Revilla, at the helm of the region since 2015.. The popular ones take the regionalist party for granted, and begin to pave the way to offer “a good agreement” with those of Revilla that puts an end to their temptation to agree with the PSOE. Again the stage is wide open. And, again, the PP would try to stop Vox's demands.

The PP has also located the Balearic Islands as one of the territories in which they most likely see a “overturn” on the night of 28-M, with Marga Prohens at the helm. The Balearic leader has recently renounced her act in the Congress of Deputies, which is a good indication of her chances of wresting the regional executive from Francina Armengol. In this context, a regionalist party could once again play a decisive role in tipping the balance to the left or right. In this case, it is about El Pi-Proposta per les Illes Balears, a centrist formation that would retain two of the three deputies in the Parliament and with which Genoa is capable of understanding. Vox could double its representation to 6 seats.

Genoa has set itself the goal of limiting as far as possible the pacts with Vox that imply its entry into regional governments. It is precisely the opposite goal to the one proposed in the barracks run by Santiago Abascal, where they seek to replicate the Castilla y León model in other regions and municipalities.. The two forces on the right have pulled the rope to its maximum. And in the campaign they will maintain immovable positions. As of May 29, both PP and Vox privately recognize that they will have to relax their conditions so that the left does not win new victories at the expense of their lack of understanding.