Isabel Díaz Ayuso said: “Probably this Friday we will have that seat number 16 in Madrid”. And granting the credibility that deserves to whoever was right when almost everyone already ruled out that option, we must review the rest of the forecasts that the Madrid president made in her appearance last Wednesday. He affirmed that Pedro Sánchez has “an agreement to make Otegi lehendakari”. To examine this prophecy, we will have to wait a long year, until the next Basque elections -the legislature concludes in July 2024-. But he made another prediction, closer: “Sánchez has an agreement [with Puigdemont] to sell our nation in two weeks”. The deadline matters, because, above all, that deputy who changed color this Friday not only alters the blocks, but speeds up the clocks.
Since Sunday, it was taken for granted that there were two ententes that were almost tied. On one side, PSOE (122 deputies), Sumar (31), ERC (7), Bildu (6), PNV (5) and BNG (1). Overall: 172 seats. After the PSOE fell to 121, that block, with its 171, no longer surpasses the right, where it would now be 172 (PP, 137; Vox, 33; UPN, 1; Canary Islands Coalition, 1). Ana Oramas, leader of the Canarian regionalists, has ruled out supporting “the ghost investiture” of Feijóo. But he also refuses to join the other block. The Canarian Coalition, now in league with the PP in the regional government, but experienced in the change of sidewalk, could well cling to the abstention in the investiture. At that point, the right would then be worth 171, as much as the left.. But that changes little.
Really, the leader of the PP has no option of being invested with the result of 23-J. The 7 of Junts would be in the no to Feijóo (178) compared to 171 (without CC). That tie at 171, foreseeable today for the inauguration, would not allow Sánchez to be president either. It would not have more yeses than noes -except for betrayal, little foreseeable, from the CC to the PP-.
electoral repetition
The blockade, then, would lead to other elections, which is the drift that Genoa really clings to, from the conviction that the clear image that Sánchez depends on the fugitive Carles Puigdemont would give an extra to the right to reach the majority absolute. The electoral repetition would be as late in the year as it could fall on December 31. But with such a tight-convulsed scenario, the steps will possibly be lengthened and it would end up being at the beginning of 2024. The PSOE will do everything possible to avoid the risk of new elections and that brings us back to the immediate present, those “two weeks” in Las Sánchez “with Spain on vacation, it will sell our nation,” Ayuso predicted.
Until now, the acting president only needed an abstention from the fled president to be sworn in, a situation that is easier for both parties to mask. Now, with 171-171, he needs to get Junts' yes. But, above all, that negotiation can no longer be postponed until autumn. Moncloa sees his plans shaken: he cannot let time pass for the pressure to generate cracks in Junts, while Feijóo squeezes himself in an investiture without options.
Constitution of the Cortes, deadline
August 17 already marks a deadline for the PSOE. That day the Cortes were constituted and both the PSOE and the PP aspire to the Presidency of the Congress of Deputies, the third institution of the State and a key position to set the legislative and political rhythms in tune with Moncloa. In that election, whoever obtains an absolute majority in the first ballot (nobody has it) or a simple majority in the second (there is a tie) prospers.. But for the election of the president, unlike for that “ghost investiture of Feijóo”, the yes of the Canary Islands Coalition to the PP candidate does seem negotiable who, by the way, should first convince Vox, so given to voting for himself same.
If the PSOE loses control of Congress it would be a major setback for Sánchez. “Covenant in two weeks”. Because effectively that time has the PSOE to convince Junts (or part of that group) to support the candidacy of Meritxell Batet, if the PSOE bets on her again, or any other socialist candidate to preside over Congress.
If there were a pact between the left and Junts for the constitution of the Cortes, that August 17, the King's round of consultations would also be affected, which begins just after. Because by then the war of blocks would be somewhat more clarified and Felipe VI would have to decide between entrusting the investiture to the leader of the most voted party (PP), which was predictable until now, or to whom (Sánchez), and then yes in a reliable way, due to the acceleration of the negotiations after the change of seat in Madrid, he may have, by the grace of Puigdemont, a majority to be invested. And so there would be a president on the fast track, at the beginning of September.