The wave of the new right that was inaugurated with Brexit and the triumph of Donald Trump is the latest example, and although with comings and goings, with moments of rise and decline, it has consolidated itself as the ideological force that challenges the greats. traditional parties. But, regardless of whether these formations make their way or not, there is the question of whether they respond to a change in mentality among voters and if new ideas are making their way.
A survey conducted last month by YouGov among Republican voters provides significant data in this regard. The survey was commissioned by the think tank American Compass, whose explicit goal is to reorient the conservative economic agenda toward workers, families, communities and the national interest and away from the blind faith in the free market that dominates that ideological sphere.. The mere existence of a think tank of these characteristics is already an anomaly with respect to the political visions of recent decades..
What we already know
Some clearly recognizable elements appear in the survey. The most obvious, and the one that has a direct translation in Spanish politics, is the one that places cultural issues among the priorities of the Republicans: the rejection of transgender activism, the links between large companies and the dissemination of woke ideas. and what they call “racial indoctrination” are among their main concerns. Illegal immigration also appears as one of the main challenges they usually face..
Some of these issues were not present a decade ago, others were, but in all of them there is an important qualitative nuance. His speeches are not conveyed to his voters as a radical opposition to specific practices, but are drawn as a fight against excesses.. It happens with illegal immigration, an expression where they put emphasis on the second term: they are not against immigration per se, but against illegal immigration.. This framework is systematically repeated, and from there concepts such as “racial indoctrination” arise: it is the first term on which emphasis is placed.. Each cultural issue that is addressed by these rights insistently formulates this excessive position: they do not claim to confront the fact itself as much as they confront exaggeration or abuse..
A candidate like DeSantis, who was chosen by the party as an alternative to Trump, has placed himself in this culturalist position.. At the moment he does not seem to be taking off in the polls enough to get closer to the former president, whose clearly anti-system narrative (see the profit he got from the image of his arrest) gives him a lot of advantage in the Republican sector.. In any case, the emphasis in this ideological corpus is the one that Vox uses in Spain (with which it hopes to grow in the medium term and the one that Meloni has used in Italy).
What we don't know
The most significant changes, according to American Compass, are not taking place in the cultural field, but in the progressive abandonment by Republican voters of the typical way of understanding the economy: “They have abandoned the traditional approach of the Republican Party on deregulation and free trade”.
Specifically, there are three aspects that move away from the thinking that has dominated the right-wing framework in recent decades.. The most significant is the notable support that Republican voters give to protectionism: 77% support tariffs and understand that domestic manufacturing should be promoted. In some areas, they also support state action: 78% say they are in favor of the government providing support to ensure that the United States is a leader in advanced technologies such as semiconductors..
In addition to protectionism, there is a change, not resounding but significant, regarding the role of finance. 57% believe that “Wall Street investors are getting rich by doing things that weaken our economy”; They no longer believe that they strengthen the country, but that they have become a problem. The percentage of voters is not very high, but it marks an enormous difference with the past, when support for finance was notably majority..
Another door that has opened is the work one.. 41% believe that unions “are a positive force that helps workers and reduces corporate power”. This is striking because, even though the percentage is lower than that of those who maintain the opposite position, it is a very unusual figure for “a party that has been unconditionally anti-union for decades.”. This change is also perceived when analyzing the American moment: 85% consider that employers' complaints about labor shortages “are a good thing, because it will force them to offer better jobs and pay higher wages, which that will spread prosperity”. Since the other option for obtaining labor is more immigration, they much prefer that employers raise wages.
New and old right
Likewise, there is greater concern among conservatives about the standard of living, as they perceive the middle class to be very weak, and even more so at times like this.. 90% believe that the cost of necessary goods and services has become much higher, while wages are not growing enough.
Where the old beliefs are maintained is in the rejection of taxes, which are very high, as well as direct aid from the government, even in cases where it involves birth support.. In European countries, some right-wing governments have used this route to transfer income to their citizens, which basically means introducing social democratic policies through a different door.. The Republican voter, however, is not in favor of these measures: they do not like increasing public spending.
With this data, American Compass experts conclude that there is a clear division between what they call the new and old right: the first, which makes up 40%, gives preference to issues such as globalization, financialization and the power of workers, and the second, 30%, continues to emphasize the free market, finance and global trade: “On many key issues, Republican Party voters have adopted positions that directly oppose the market fundamentalism that is still common in the main conservative institutions”.
In this gap, a peculiar variable also appears: among the voters of the old right, upper-class men predominate, but women from that same social stratum prefer the new right..
The Spanish case
This profile, however, is not present in Spanish politics, partly because the territorial variable marks the national agenda through confrontation with peripheral nationalisms, partly because that conservative economic mentality oriented towards the community and the national interest has not penetrated in Spain. The liberal framework that reigned during the global era, that of free trade and free circulation of capital, taxes and low wages, is deeply rooted in the right.. Vox has incorporated some element of the new conservatism that it describes in its American Compass study, such as its defense of energy sovereignty, but it is far from it, and the PP is anchored in old positions of global liberalism, as was proven in the program described by Feijóo in the investiture attempt.
The change in mentality noted may only be the product of a moment linked to specific difficulties in the US economy, but it is more likely to reflect a modification in the mental framework on the part of conservative voters.. Many of the European right, in the government or in the opposition, are turning towards protectionist positions, which cannot fully work if they do not raise the income level of their populations, either through transfers to promote birth rates, such as Hungary and Poland. , either because they encourage policies of national withdrawal, like the French one, or because they include directly social democratic measures in their program, as does the Slovakian Robert Fico. At this time of upheaval in the international order, the gaps for new developments to appear are becoming larger, and perhaps this is one of them.