The 'tip' of Tezanos that caused Sánchez's turn: he lost 612,000 votes and has not recovered 10% of women
The alarm lights had gone off. The PSOE took a strategic turn with the law of only yes is yes and decided at its own risk and unilaterally to undertake a reform against the criteria of Podemos when it showed through the surveys that it was precisely he who was suffering the greatest wear. Spain ate dinner every day with reduced sentences and saw in the media an updated count of benefited sexual offenders. The data began to say it clearly. The women's favorite party was losing their support in a year with a double election date.
Month of January. The CIS shows a voting intention of 30.2% for the PSOE. José Félix Tezanos continued to give the Socialists a downward trend, as he already did in December (30.6%), when he came from a November in which he predicted 32.7%. They are 2.5 points less -in the 2019 elections, some 612,00 voters-. What had happened? In mid-November the first sentence reductions began to be announced, a scandal. It began what the PSOE later described as “social alarm” due to the “undesired effects” of the law of only yes is yes.
It is true that Tezanos's forecasts have always been questioned by experts and polling companies, but beyond the final photo published by the CIS in each barometer, the most relevant thing in this case is the comparison of internal data .
The “only yes is yes” law already benefits 978 sexual offenders and releases 104 of them
In them you can find the evolution of the intention to vote of women in all this time. From the month of October, when the sales had not yet started, until March, the date of the last study published. The first conclusion is that the PSOE has lost in five months of controversy the vote of one in 10 women who supported it. If the vote estimate in those months could also be eroded by the sedition and embezzlement reform, the gender detail reveals that the yes is yes was more crucial.
Let's see. In October, the CIS estimated that 31.5% of the women surveyed would choose the PSOE ballot. It was by far the favorite. Well, for the second, the PP, bet 23.3% of the questions asked. They are 8.2 points of difference.
In January these differences are reduced because then the women who would elect the PSOE dropped to 29.7%. They are 1.8 points less than in October. In March, the percentage continues to plummet. The CIS estimates that it would be 28.2% of them. That is, 3.3 points less than before the outbreak of the crisis. Those 3.3 points mean losing 10.47% of their female voters. In other words, one in 10 women. The difference with the PP, in comparison with the PSOE, has been reduced, although it is true that it has not managed to get much electoral advantage either.
“Macho” judges
Unidas Podemos, however, would not have accused this wear, making the victimhood profitable among its electorate. In January the percentage of women rose, in full defense that the sentence reductions were the fault of the “macho” judges. In March, as his voting data is distorted by Tezanos's decision to count Sumar on his own, no conclusion can be drawn.
With the data in hand, it is now better understood that the PSOE broke the deck in January and decided to go it alone before the verification that the negotiations with Podemos were going nowhere.. Because they had not advanced for a month and a half and the women's vote was fleeing. The first contacts between socialists and purples took place in November but it was on the December bridge when the Ministries of Justice (PSOE) and Equality (Podemos) crossed ideas. Pilar Llop sent those days the text that was voted on yesterday in committee and that tomorrow will be approved in Congress, with additions agreed with the PP.
Podemos had been flatly rejecting the terms of the socialist text since the December long weekend but it was in January, shortly after the publication of the CIS, when Pedro Sánchez gave the order to go alone, despite the fact that he was aware that he was going to unleash a total war with Podemos. Because it meant the disavowal of Irene Montero in her star law.
There is another factor that happened in January. The CIS conducted a survey on sexual violence. Tezanos did not introduce any question about the only yes is yes law despite the “social alarm”. Or at least none was published in the study when it was released on February 8. However, three days after the field work of that survey (it was asked from January 20 to 25), the Government leaked that it was going to reform the law alone or with Podemos. It was then that the war between the Government’s partners broke out. On the eve of 8-M the Congress voted its processing and next week the Senate will make it final.
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