Third victory of the PP of Juanma Moreno after a sorpasso by the minimum in Andalusia

The PP has obtained this July 23 an unquestionable victory in Andalusia in number of seats and in votes, although below the expectations generated after the success of the regional elections of 2022, when it obtained a resounding absolute majority, and of the municipal ones of last May, when the PP managed to wrest the government of the eight Andalusian capitals and six of the eight councils from the PSOE.

The electoral cycle closes, therefore, with a new popular triumph that confirms the supremacy of the PP in what had historically been considered one of the most solid socialist barns. But, given the expectations created around the Juanma Moreno effect, the surprise of election night has been that the Andalusian PSOE has managed to resist better than expected at a time of tremendous organic weakness due to the loss of territorial power.

At the close of this edition, the PP would have obtained 25 of the 61 deputies to Congress that are elected from Andalusia, that is, 10 more than in the November 2019 elections, with around 1,560,000 votes. The PSOE, for its part, is left with 21 deputies, which are 4 less than those achieved in the previous general elections, with 1,438,000 votes. The difference is about 122,000 supports, a much smaller gap than the one that resulted from the last municipal elections (185,000 votes difference) or the one that opened in the regional elections of June 2022 (almost 700,000 votes).

In any case, the Andalusian map is painted blue in the regional calculation and is consolidated as one of the territories with the most specific weight for the PP, after winning seven of the eight provinces.

But the PSOE of Juan Espadas has contained in some way the bleeding of support that it had been suffering in the last calls, despite having left four deputies along the way. And what will undoubtedly be celebrated as a partial success of the socialists, of high symbolic value, is having managed to maintain first place in the province of Seville, cradle of the old PSOE of Felipe González and Alfonso Guerra and a true talisman for Andalusian socialism.. In these general elections, the head of the PSOE list for Seville has been the Minister of Finance (now in office), María Jesús Montero, Deputy Secretary General of the PSOE, who has played a leading role throughout the campaign and who is considered one of the unquestionable references for the future of the PSOE, as he demonstrated by going out yesterday on Ferraz's balcony with Pedro Sánchez and his wife.

The PSOE-A will have to refine a lot to correctly interpret the electoral results. Because, although it is true that it has been able to resist the popular wave better than expected, its results (four deputies less than in 2019) are worse than those achieved in the country as a whole (two more deputies).

The current general secretary of the PSOE-A, Juan Espadas, does not come out stronger than ever from this electoral event, but the atmosphere of relief that exists in Ferraz after having managed to stop any option for the right to govern, could serve as a balm when it comes to demanding accounts.. In addition, in the face of a hypothetical scenario of electoral repetition, logic would invite us to postpone any process of internal reflection.

The third party in number of votes in Andalusia has been Vox, which has obtained 657,450 votes and has lost three of the twelve deputies it had in Congress.

And in fourth place Sumar has been placed, which achieved 512,284 votes and six deputies, which are the same as United We Can already achieved in 2019.

Neither Adelante Andalucía (the party of Teresa Rodríguez and Kichi headed by Pilar González and who only ran for Cádiz) nor Jaén Merece Más (the revelation party of the municipal elections in the capital of the province) have obtained representation in Congress. Macarena Olona, who became the leader of Vox in Andalusia and was running in these elections as the head of the list for Granada of her new party, Caminando Juntos, has also been left out.

The PP was convinced that Andalusia would be key to the triumph of Alberto Núñez Feijóo in these general elections and this has been the case. But getting a majority in the voluminous Andalusian vote barn (6.7 million voters) has been insufficient for this victory to allow Alberto Núñez Feijóo to be sworn in as Prime Minister. Definitely, Feijóo has remained far from “marking a Juanma Moreno”, if we use the formula that the president of the Board used on several occasions during the electoral campaign, when in the PP they even dared to speculate with a “sufficient” majority to govern without the need for Vox.

The Andalusian PP has put the finishing touch to the electoral cycle and has consummated the third Andalusian political turnaround, but Feijóo's pyrrhic victory will not allow him to celebrate success as he expected. In any case, Juanma Moreno has established himself as one of the most powerful barons in Feijóo's PP.

With 99.01% of the count, participation in Andalusia stood at 68.97%, which is 3.06 points more than that registered in the last general elections, when it reached 65.91 percent.. Voting by mail has been included in this data, which has reached historical figures, with 377,000 Andalusian voters choosing to go ahead when voting. Participation in Andalusia has been slightly lower than that of Spain as a whole, at 70.32%.