UPN is the party with the most votes in Navarra but the PSOE is once again in the hands of Bildu to govern

UPN wins the elections in Navarra again, but Javier Esparza's regionalist party would only come to power in the impossible event that Pedro Sánchez reneged on EH Bildu. The most feasible scenario is that the PSOE reissues the left-wing alliance that in 2019 led it to form a government with Geroa Bai and Podemos, supported by the abstention of Arnaldo Otegi's party at the investiture of María Chivite.

Bildu is once again key on this occasion and the PSOE is once again in his hands. The controversy over the presence of ETA members on their lists reinforces the Abertzales (who win two seats and for the first time surpass Geroa Bai, who loses two in turn) and does not take its toll on the PSN, which remains as it was.

The left bloc benefits from the center-right division. In 2019, UPN, PP and Ciudadanos competed under the Navarra Suma brand and achieved 20 parliamentarians out of the 50 representatives of the Provincial Parliament. The coalition broke up last year after Esparza approached Moncloa. Now, with 90% of the votes counted, UPN obtains 15 seats, the PP obtains three and Ciudadanos disappears. Not even the irruption of Vox in the Chamber with two deputies would allow Esparza to add more than his adversaries. So the PSN could reissue the tripartite uniting its 11 seats with the seven of Geroa Bai and the three of Contigo Navarra (Podemos, IU, Batzarre, Alianza Verde and Equo, which were separately in 2019), with which it would reach 21 deputies, one more than the entire center right.

Chivite would have the accounts if Bildu abstains in the second round of his investiture, as in 2019. Otegi, for whom it is a priority to prevent the right from governing at all costs, needs to be in good standing with the PSOE, which is key to controlling the Prosecutor's Office in the legal cases open against the ETA network.

It is probable that the Pamplona City Council will also be included in the negotiation. With 99% scrutinized, the list with the most votes for only one councilor away from Bildu's is that of Cristina Ibarrola (UPN), but without enough support to form a majority, so the PSN's strategy to seize power and evict to the center right, it involves placing its candidate Elma Saiz as mayor with the support of Bildu, as they did in Vitoria in 2015 to evict Javier Maroto (PP) from the City Council.

Joseba Asiron (Bildu) has made it clear tonight that he wants to be the mayor, but Saiz has repeated actively and passively that he would not support either Ibarrola or Asiron. The negotiation until June 17 is going to be tough.

In Tudela, the situation is clearer. UPN has won with an absolute majority with 11 of the 21 councilors, so mayor Alejandro Toquero will keep his seat.