What is moving while Feijóo sits down to read the 'Marca', like Rajoy
The moment in which the parties arrive at the debate marks it deeply. This is always the case, because moments are decisive, but more so in this one, which seems to have been considered as the losers' debate. The polls do not doubt that the popular will win the elections (except for the CIS), and analysts debate between attributing a substantial victory for Feijóo, around 150-160, or a more moderate one, around 140. The rest, that is, the three great national parties, attend in an emergency situation. Except for the absent one, who moves rocked by an inertia whose destination seems to be the Moncloa, all the others need to gain space and this is their last chance.
It is curious that this is the minute and result of the campaign, because Feijóo has done nothing but make mistakes in it, with the crucial exception, that of the two-way debate. It sounded like a winning blow: the Socialists, in the previous weeks, had begun to generate the perception that the result had not been decided, and that it had started. The disappointment suffered by the left that night stopped that comeback in its tracks.
a new framework
Today's debate moves in a different framework: it is no longer so much about encouraging his supporters from the possibility of victory, but rather mobilizing them in the face of the consequences of defeat; It is about showing the great dangers that would lie in wait if the PP and Vox governed together, which is the message that will go through, expressly but also implicitly, the television broadcast. The left will try to convey to their own the sense of urgency and necessity. The other part of the strategy consists in making people believe that, even with a limited number of left seats, around 150, it would be possible to govern.
On the other hand, the absence of a Feijóo who decided a long time ago that the best move was to stay still, offers an ideal starting framework for Abascal: he is the only representative of the right against sanchismo. He has an advantage in this solitude, since he depends on himself: if he knows how to play his tricks, he will be able to get a good handful of votes from the PP. It can also be turned against him: if he fails, he will give away voters to the PP.
It should be noted, in this regard, the curious way in which Vox reaches the last week. The surveys offer a provisional result according to which Vox is below the level of acceptance of the previous general ones, and in some of them well below. However, Vox has around 14.5% of the vote, which is only 0.7% less than four years ago.. In other words, the D'Hondt law penalizes him a lot, and if he regains momentum today, the translation of votes into seats could be very different.
The party that most touched arrives is Sumar. Díaz will need to do in a few hours what he has not done throughout the campaign, differentiate himself and gain ground. Díaz's formation had to have reached where Sánchez could not; I had to expand spaces, especially on the left. Not only has it not succeeded, but its space has been reduced towards loyal voters. Tonight he needs to show that he is something else, that he has a differentiated and attractive profile that complicates the trend towards useful voting so much. It is a complicated task in many ways, but more so when Díaz's excessive aggressiveness towards the PSOE would be perceived as a mistake..
The change of strategy
Contrary to what one might think, the debate has its interest, precisely because of the moment it arrives, the end of the campaign. Sánchez decided to leave the EU summit with Celac early to attend a meeting in Huesca and yesterday he was not in the final declaration to participate in another meeting in San Sebastián. That campaign inch by inch of the Socialists, which perhaps should have been drawn before, is appearing in the final stretch, and is concentrating on the territories in which some deputy can change sign. The last seat of a fortnight of province will be key to the final map, and all the formations are concentrating on winning that last millimeter to their side. Regardless of the topics that appear tonight, that some specific message in this sense should appear referring to those territories, it will be the impression that is caused, the level of activation and mood, or discomfort and frizz, which will have a role. in these final days.
We will have to be especially attentive to the space on the right. Anything that is not a victory for the PP would be a notable surprise, but it remains to be decided what the final balance will be within the space, and what weight Vox will have. The debate has its risks for the PP: Feijóo can lose on both sides by not being present, since the left can activate a percentage of undecided voters, those concerned about a PP-Vox government, but Abascal can also steal their vote if succeed with your strategy. By taking a right-wing victory for granted, voting for Vox is no longer perceived as useless; that is to say, it would serve the same for Feijóo to govern, but accompanied by a counterweight to avoid positions of weakness against the left. And there are a number of neighboring voters who can choose tonight, depending on the image that Abascal offers.
In the same way, Feijóo can win on both sides without lifting a single finger.. If the debate is unsatisfactory, if the contestants are not correct with their approaches, if it becomes somewhat cumbersome or too bitter, the PP leader would emerge victorious sitting in front of the television because, effectively, it would become the losers' debate. Feijóo has opted for the Rajoy option, that of winning due to the mistakes of the opponents, that of sitting down to read the Marca while waiting for other people's failures.
There is not little that remains to be decided in these elections. And more when the atmosphere is strange. The date of the elections, the absence of real political debate and the permanent polarization, and the high number of undecided, especially within the blocs, suggest that there is much to be resolved. It is true that the numbers from the surveys are conclusive, but also that the demoscopes themselves have doubts, because they do not see the final map clearly drawn. In this scenario, the air of last chance pervades the debate.