The war in Ukraine will be two years old next February, and there are no signs of it moving forward in either direction.. But no matter how much time passes, the threat of a possible nuclear escalation does not stop hovering over the battlefield.
U.S. Army Brigadier General Kevin Ryan, who served as chief of staff of the Army Space and Missile Defense Command, said nuclear war is a “completely feasible” option if one condition is met.
As reported by the Daily Mail, Ryan, who served as defense attaché in Russia, believes that Moscow is not only at war with Ukraine, but also with the West, and it is for this reason that Putin is much more likely to see the use of tactical nuclear weapons as a “prudent deterrence.
“Exploding a nuclear weapon inside Ukraine may seem like an 'overkill' in a war against Ukraine, but in a war against the West, it could be seen as a prudent deterrent,” Ryan says.
“The bottom line is that the use of a nuclear weapon is entirely feasible and negative outcomes could be ruled out if the alternative is defeat,” he adds.
The retired general says that if Ukrainian forces begin to make gains on the battlefield, Putin and his military leaders would not be intimidated by the prospect of irradiating territory within their occupied lands with tactical nuclear weapons.
These nuclear weapons can have a yield of up to 100 kilotons, five times the amount of the US atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.
“As far as Russia irradiating territory that is within its occupied lands, I think Russian leaders would weigh that against losing a war, or losing Crimea or a large portion of their own military,” Ryan says.. “In these cases, it is not a bad deal for Russia,” he adds.
Failure of the counteroffensive
“The only reason we haven't seen tactical nuclear weapons is because Ukraine's counteroffensive hasn't been as successful as expected,” Ryan says.
In fact, Putin has warned since launching his large-scale invasion of Ukraine that Moscow is willing to use “all available means” to defend itself from attacks on Russian territory considered existential, in reference to its nuclear arsenal.
“Although the West has relied more on conventional weapons since the end of the Cold War, Russia has had to continue to rely on tactical nuclear weapons to be prepared to achieve its battlefield objectives,” Ryan says.
“That is largely because Russia has not been able to successfully modernize its conventional forces,” he explains.
“The bottom line is that Russian military leaders view tactical nuclear weapons as a valid and useful escalation tool,” says Ryan. “Putin too,” says the general.
“The West has not fully woken up to the reality that we are in a war with Russia,” says Ryan. “Countries like Poland and the Baltics believe Putin's words and actions and think we are at war,” he says.
“But the United States, the United Kingdom and much of NATO? I think they think this is just a war between Russia and Ukraine, a war that we can be on the sidelines helping,” Ryan explains.
“Ukraine is the first battlefield of Putin's war with the West,” Ryan warned. “There is evidence that Russia is preparing for a conflict greater than the one occurring in Ukraine,” he concludes.