A small state in the former GDR is the last electoral test in Germany before the end of the Merkel era

German conservatives face the extreme right this Sunday in regional elections that have the value of the last test before the legislative elections in September, which will end the 16-year reign of Angela Merkel.

The 1.8 million voters of Saxony-Anhalt, 'land' of the former communist GDR and one of the poorest in the country, vote this Sunday in elections considered crucial. Never has an election in this small state, dominated almost uninterruptedly since the chancellor's reunification by the Christian-Democratic Union (CDU), aroused so much national interest.

Although most polls give the CDU an advantage with 27-29% of the vote, the election is announced to be close to the Alternative for Germany (AfD), an anti-immigrant party that has become the second regional political force since 2016, and which is it grants 24 to 28% of the votes.

Much depends on the undecided, who represent a third of the electorate, according to a latest barometer from public television ZDF. An AfD electoral victory, unprecedented in the country, would be a catastrophe for Armin Laschet, the unpopular head of the CDU and aspirant to succeed Merkel as chancellor after the September 26 legislative elections, according to analysts.

This would revive debates about his legitimacy as a right-wing candidate, and “weaken the situation for the CDU as a whole,” says Hajo Funke, a political scientist at the Free University of Berlin.

Forbidden to flirt with AfD

The largest German party has been experiencing a crisis of confidence for several months due to failures in government management during the third wave of the coronavirus epidemic, as well as corruption scandals involving its deputies in mask purchase contracts..

The CDU, which has already suffered heavy setbacks in two regional elections, has also suffered a bitter internal struggle: Laschet's candidacy was challenged by the head of the Bavarian CSU party Markus Soder, considered more suitable to lead the conservatives.

The head of the CDU ended up imposing himself, but he continues to be little liked in the country. He needs a win to unite his people and consolidate the position of the Conservatives who, after having fallen behind the Greens in voting intentions at the national level, have recently regained first place. But even if the AfD were to win in Saxony-Anhalt, this party would not be able to form a coalition, since the other formations refuse any alliance with it.

“The CDU cannot be involved in any rapprochement with the AfD. Whoever does so must leave the CDU,” Laschet warned Thursday, faced with the temptation of many conservatives to cooperate with the anti-immigrant party.

Hope for the Greens

Saxony-Anhalt, a 'land' hard hit by the exodus of its inhabitants since reunification in 1990, is fertile ground for the AfD, which has built its success by fueling fears of the flow of migrants to Germany in 2015, and which accuses the central government to forget about the ex-GDR regions.

The head of the Saxony-Anhalt conservatives, Reiner Haseloff, whose party obtained 30% of the votes in the last elections, has led an unprecedented coalition with the Greens and the SPD Social Democrats since 2016. AfD had then obtained just over 24%.

In 2017, the extreme right achieved a spectacular entry into the Bundestag, the national parliament, and became the first opposition force with 12.6% of the votes.. Although this Sunday's elections are announced as a duel between the CDU and AfD, the Greens, generally fragile in the former GDR, hope to take advantage of their good national polls to double their result and obtain 10% of the votes in this 'land' .

Reiner Haseloff could then renew his coalition with them and the SPD, or perhaps seek an alternative with the liberals of the FDP, who according to polls are returning to the regional parliament.