A strengthened or desperate Prigozhin? What Wagner's controversial videos hide

He called Russia's top military commanders “sons of bitches” and “bastards”. On Victory Day, he posted a video calling his grandfather an “idiot,” a nickname many have linked to Vladimir Putin.. Yegveny Prigozhin, Wagner's leader, appears to have reached a breaking point with the Defense Ministry after months of battle at Bakhmut and denouncing the lack of ammunition at the front.. The controversial statements by the head of the group of military contractors were widely disseminated around the world and, while some have interpreted them as a sign of rebellion, others have described them as a sign of desperation..

Formerly known as Putin's chef for his former Kremlin-contracted catering company, he began to gain public prominence when he arrived in Ukraine with the Wagner mercenary group. After military victories on fronts such as Soledar and his arrival at Bakhmut, rumors began to surface that Prigozhin was interested in entering the political sphere.. Claims to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov over the lack of ammunition turned into an open conflict between the two parties, which reached its peak after the leader de Wagner threatened to abandon the front if he did not receive the necessary weapons.

In recent months, Prigozhin had sent messages such as that the Kremlin wanted to kill Wagner at all costs and pointed out that Russia does not want to admit Wagner's military victories because that would mean that the group of mercenaries is more effective than Russian troops.. However, on May 5, he brought the tension to a maximum with a video full of expletives against the Kremlin's high military commanders.. After the Victory Day parade and Putin's speech in Red Square, Wagner's leader spoke again to ask for ammunition again and affirmed that the group of military contractors will not withdraw because that would constitute a crime of treason to the state by desertion. In addition, he said that the Russian generals are betraying Putin: “What if it turns out that grandfather is a real idiot?”.

Although he did not make a direct reference to Vladimir Putin, the Russian media interpreted that he was referring to the Russian president.. Later, Prigozhin posted an audio message on his Telegram channel in which he hinted that the message was meant for Gerasimov.. The latest public appearances by the Wagner leader have had a major impact in the international media and many have been surprised by the harshness with which he addresses the Russian Ministry of Defense. Others see it, on the contrary, as Wagner's test of despair in the Ukraine.. “Everything he says is a bluff or nonsense. Here it is shown that Prigozhin has no decision-making power over what happens in the war and that is why he pushes those narratives that are unfortunately widely shared.. He is just an avatar, an opportunist, but in no way a military man, strategist or politician,” says Ruslan Trad, a security researcher for the Atlantic Council and an expert on the operations of the Wagner Group, to El Confidencial..

In 27-minute May 9 video, Prigozhin rambles about lack of ammunition for Wagner, MoD deserting positions, & inserts an interesting phrase: “The happy grandfather thinks he is fine…what if it turns out he is a complete asshole?” “Grandfather” is established nickname for Putin. pic.twitter.com/kuudoGjWW1

— Jack Margolin (@Jack_Mrgln) May 9, 2023

Trad argues that Prigozhin takes advantage of any statement to gain visibility and build an image of what one investigator says is a businessman with a heart, who nevertheless has the will to rebel at the top.. However, this image is joined by that of the mercenary leader for whom he became known after his arrival in Ukraine..

“We can pull rotten teeth out of those bad mouths with pliers. We can pull out Macron's teeth and, in general, the teeth of all those who spill pathogenic dirt [on Wagner],” the group's head said after the French parliament designated it a terrorist organization and urged the European Union to do the same.

The researcher recalls that these types of threats are part of his influence strategy but, at the same time, the videos and statements of the last few days show that he is dependent on Russia. “The model that Prigozhin has started is alarming for the Russian security forces. It shows an arrogance that can lead to the creation of many more structures like Wagner, with which the strong in power can squeeze the Kremlin. However, so far, Prigozhin is only part of a larger network that is administered in Moscow,” Ruslan Trad maintains in this newspaper..

Does Russia need Wagner?

Prigozhin's videos show that they are the only way he has to express his disagreement and anger. “They are one of the few ways to communicate with Putin, as he doesn't have any kind of direct line,” says Mark Galeotti, a professor at University College London's School of Slavic and Eastern European Studies and a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, in an interview in Kyiv Independent. Wagner's dependency shows, according to the expert, that the group is a shadow of what it once was.

Galeotti added that Bakhmut's threat to withdraw was not the first, but if he really kept his word, it would be disastrous for him.. “He is completely dependent on the Kremlin for all his business activities and has been given tolerance and favorable treatment”. In the event that it did, on the other hand, the investigator believes that the chances of it surviving would be remote.. “I don't necessarily mean physical, but he has so many enemies that they would be happy to take him down the moment he no longer had any protection”.

By contrast, Mark Galeotti points out that the MoD still needs Wagner in Ukraine.. “If they got victory after victory, they would be in a strong position to go and talk to Putin and say, 'We have to get rid of them,' but they are not in that position.”. Prigozhin, meanwhile, positions himself as a victim so he can say that if things go wrong, it's not his fault.. For this reason, some analysts point out that his demands for more ammunition may be a red herring and an excuse to explain why he has not achieved significant achievements in Bakhmut after months of intense battle..

For months the Wagner leader has denounced an “abandonment” of his fighters by the Kremlin. That is why he showed dozens of bodies from his unit fallen in Bakhmut in a video and has raised the tone of his criticism. Some open source intelligence (Osint) experts told El Confidencial that Prigozhin's criticisms could cause widespread discontent among Wagner's mercenaries that could have consequences for the Kremlin.. However, most of the opinions increasingly reject a rebellion by the group and bet more on the desperation of its leader.

“The fact that Prigozhin did not carry out his threat to leave the front indicates that he is aware of his dependence on the Russian Ministry of Defense (…). He probably expected the Russian Defense Ministry to give in completely to his demands at the risk of abandoning his own targets for regular Russian forces, but he probably realized that he cannot fulfill his ultimatum at this time,” a recent report by the Russian Defense Ministry said. Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

From shady leader to commander

Mark Galeotti stated for the Kyiv Independent that Wagner is no longer what he was. In this regard, researcher Ruslan Trad added that the war in Ukraine has changed the vision of the group, compared to operations in Syria or Africa.. “In parts of Africa like the Central African Republic and Mali, for example, Wagner's fighters have made no secret of their activities, even going so far as to appear during official events in the countries where they operate.. On the contrary, the movement of its fighters in Ukraine is secret and mostly attached to the Russian Special Forces, Spetsnaz and other elite forces of the Russian Army,” he points out to this newspaper..

Yevgeny Prigozhin himself has changed since his arrival on the Ukrainian front, especially after the fighting in Bakhmut and Soledar. “His image went from being the shady owner of Wagner – because he is not the owner but a Wagner financier – to an active commander who walks with the soldiers at the front,” he says..

Prigozhin's influence in the Kremlin is likely to be less than it once appeared, but Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, stressed to Newsweek that Russian officials are frightened by the threat the leader of Wagner for the Government and political stability in the country.

Prigozhin claimed in April through his Telegram channel that the Kremlin's top brass were trying to “dilute Wagner's power so that it is not a big force that plays any role in domestic politics.”. The statements are framed after the Putin government denied several of the claims about the state of Russian troops on the front. “One of the Defense Ministry units fled from one of our flanks [in Bakhmut]. They abandoned their positions, they all fled. Why doesn't the State manage to defend the country?”, he accused in a video published this Wednesday.

Hours later, a Ukrainian military unit claimed it had driven out a Russian infantry brigade on that front, confirming Prigozhin's account.. The news could not be independently verified and the Russian Ministry of Defense has not commented on the matter, but cases like this show that not everything that the head of the group of military contractors affirms would necessarily be false or conditional.. What is the way out of a Prigozhin who criticizes the army on which he is dependent? “In this war, which seems increasingly unpredictable with time, and perhaps doomed for Russia, Prigozhin says things that seem right.. In the long run, it can become more attractive, which means that people start to think that maybe I'm not so wrong about the state of affairs,” concludes Stanovaya..