The EU goes on the diplomatic offensive after the latest outbreak of violence between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. Negotiators from both countries met on Tuesday afternoon in Brussels with senior European officials. The meeting was a mere thermometer to measure the temperature of the positions and, above all, to prepare the ground for Granada, where the two leaders will meet on October 5 on the sidelines of the third summit of the European Political Community.
The Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinian, and the Azerbaijani President, Ilham Aliyev, will meet in the Spanish city with the intention of facing a dialogue whose ultimate objective is to advance towards a peace treaty that will put an end to decades of continuous clashes. and flashing. The event will be attended by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron.. For now, the meeting held in the community capital by the secretary of the Armenian Security Council, Armen Grigoryan, and the Azerbaijani foreign policy advisor, Hikmet Hajiyev, with experts from the EU, Germany and France has served to seal an intention to advance in the normalization of their relations during their vis à vis in the Andalusian city.
“Grigoryan and Hajiyec have discussed possible concrete steps to advance the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan at the next meeting [in Grenada], for example, on border delimitation, security, connectivity, humanitarian affairs and a treaty of peace”, summarizes the final communiqué issued by the European Council.
The one in September is the umpteenth military clash between the two since the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the most powerful since the last war in 2020.. On this occasion, Azerbaijan consolidated its position and strength after six weeks of intense fighting, which ended with a ceasefire sponsored by Russia, who deployed troops to supervise it.
Russia loses mediation capacity
The shock to the geopolitical table that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has left also finds its impact in this region of the Caucasus. Moscow is focusing its energies and forces on the military intervention that began 19 months ago.. In parallel, its historic relationship with Armenia is faltering after Yerevan has accused Moscow of a lukewarm response to preserve the status quo of Nagorno Karabakh.. For its part, the Kremlin has also not liked Pashinian's rapprochement with the West in terms of security.
The feeling among analysts is that Russia is losing its capacity to influence in the region, something that Azerbaijan would be using to consolidate its military victory three years ago.. “Baku had felt that its grievances related to the 30-year conflict with Armenia were not being adequately addressed by previous peace processes.”. “It redrawn the map in the 2020 war and is now seeking a peace agreement with Armenia, but on its own terms,” analyzes Crisis Group expert Zaur Shiriyev.
With a neighborhood inflamed by the war in Ukraine, the European priority is to cease hostilities, stop the exodus and restore calm. Their response to date has been lukewarm.. And somewhat even-handed, something that has not pleased the most critical in the European Parliament.. Dozens of MEPs have called for a firmer stance with Azerbaijan and even sanctions. However, energy is once again a thorn in the EU's energy alliances. Azerbaijan has emerged as a “key and trusted ally” when it comes to supplying gas to the community bloc. After the start of the war in Ukraine, Brussels and Baku signed an agreement to double gas shipments to 20 billion cubic meters annually.
“The EU fully supports the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and Armenia and expects all actors to do the same (…) Azerbaijan has full responsibility to ensure respect for the rights and security of Armenians living in Karabakh. The use of forces to resolve disputes is not acceptable,” said Josep Borrell, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, recently.
The attack initiated by the Azerbaijani Army has left an exodus of more than 13,500 Armenians in one week. To alleviate the humanitarian crisis, the European Commission approved this Tuesday an emergency fund of five million euros. In total, Europeans have allocated 26 million euros in humanitarian aid to the region in the last three years. During the face to face in the community capital, the Europeans have asked the Azerbaijanis for transparency and guarantees on humanitarian assistance to the locals and more details about their plans and their vision for the future and the status of Nagorno Karabakh and its population, which is mostly Armenian.