The next year 2024 will be held presidential elections in the United States. We know that as of today candidate Trump is more than thirty points ahead of the second Republican candidate, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Former President Trump has a peculiar way of understanding international relations and seeks instant coups with unforeseeable consequences, such as the so-called Abraham pact for the State of Israel to be recognized by some Arab countries and which, for example, led to the recognition by the United States of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara -creating a regional imbalance- a few weeks after leaving the White House.

In recent statements, Trump has claimed that Ukraine's entry into NATO “would be completely insane”, thus opening a possible gap in the unanimity of its Atlantic partners in the event that he were to become president again.. He has also stated that he would end the war in Ukraine in one day, a statement along the lines of what has already been commented and that it does not provide a viable solution to an extremely complex conflict and that it is not susceptible to voluntaristic simplification.. So is Trump.

The war has other fronts other than combat, where they fight for every meter of land and where the losses and gains of each other, dramatic in any case, are not at all determinative for the final result they hope to achieve.. In this sense, we see how the abandonment of the agreement for the export of Ukrainian grain by the Russian Federation implies an indiscriminate global rise in the prices of food and raw materials that will aggravate famine in some countries of the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, in addition to a systematic destruction of the Black Sea port facilities and Ukrainian grain silos.

This situation may be used by the Russian Federation to strengthen its relations with some of the affected countries that will supply their food deficiencies with Russian exports.. In these countries, moreover, mixed feelings will be created towards those they consider responsible for the situation and who are benefiting from the conflict.

Wars today have the character of totals, they are settled in all domains and spheres of human activity, the devastation can become complete and the alleged “surgical actions” of yesteryear have given way to widespread destruction and the denial of use of any land, sea or air space regardless of the purpose pursued, be it war, economic or even humanitarian.. It is the concept of unrestricted warfare.

We see that this conflict is focusing more and more on cities and critical infrastructures (bridges, silos, railways, port terminals…), perhaps because the results on the front are not what might be expected. It seeks to damage productive capacity as much as possible and weaken the will to resist, transferring suffering to the population as a whole. Russia seeks to provoke discouragement and frustration in countries committed to supporting Ukraine as they see the conflict drag on indefinitely without the recovery of the entire territory of Ukraine.

Contributing to all this is the information war that is being waged in all countries and in all social communication media -with special mention to the networks- which seeks to accentuate the real or invented differences and highlight any contradiction, no matter how small.. The examples of Hungary in NATO, of Austria in the EU or the reaction of Poland, Romania or Bulgaria by prohibiting the passage of Ukrainian grain through their territories are examples of the different sensitivities that governments have to face, holding positions that may seem contradictory to those of their allies. The costs of solidarity will become more burdensome with the prolongation of the conflict and only the values shared by the countries that help Ukraine will sustain support for its resistance.