Double Russian disaster in Avdiivka

There is a widely shared meme in Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion. It is a Ukrainian soldier who, inside his trench, looks at a reporter with the following subtitle: “We are very lucky because the Russians are stupider than us.”. What happened these days in Avdiivka, a disputed city in the heart of Donbas, does not allow for many military explanations, but it fits the meme perfectly.

Avdiivka, which had 31,000 inhabitants before the war, is located north of the city of Donetsk. While many surrounding villages fell into rebel hands already during the 2014 rebellion, Avdiivka held out in Ukrainian hands.. Although the Russians have tried to capture it since Vladimir Putin began his “Special Military Operation” in 2022, they have advanced to the east and west, but have not managed to completely surround it.

The Ukrainian garrison is well entrenched and controls a seven or so kilometer salient within Russian-controlled territory.. For weeks there had been speculation about a Russian offensive that would relieve the pressure exerted by the Ukrainians in their counteroffensive from Zaporizhia somewhere on the map, accumulating reserves of armor and battalions to be used at the best moment.

armored fist

Five days ago, the Z troops launched a large armored fist, of about 70 battle tanks, in the northern pincer and another 40 in the southern pincer.. As is usual throughout the war, in battlefields so sensorized by infrared cameras and observation drones, the columns were detected and swept away by the Ukrainian artillery.. Many of these vehicles could not even open fire. Only on the northern flank, the field was full of charred armor. Analysis from open sources has detected at least 63 battle tanks and other armored vehicles such as infantry transport BMPs devastated by cannon fire, mines or anti-tank missiles in that area.

New try

The surprising thing, even after the Ukrainians had reinforced the positions by moving one more brigade, is that the Russians made a new attempt yesterday with another armored column on the north face, this time with half as many armored vehicles.. The result has been the same: tanks smoking like oil torches. Within minutes, tanks that have not been hit by artillery have burst when entering a minefield.. This time there were no BMPs, those Soviet tracked vehicles that carry soldiers sitting on the roof into combat, but BTRs, that is, vehicles with rubber wheels and not chains.

With 2,400 Russian tanks lost during a year and a half of invasion and a replacement rate clearly insufficient to cover that rate of losses, many analysts believe that Russia may be losing these days the material that it should have managed during the combats it will have to face. this winter.

“The Russians did not achieve much in terms of square kilometers captured. However, they lost a lot in terms of manpower and vehicles,” writes analyst Emil Kastehelmi.

In Avdiivka, of little strategic interest, Russia is using itself in the same way as in Vugledar last winter, sending battalion after battalion that were destroyed in minutes.

The reality is that attack operations, as the Ukrainian counteroffensive also demonstrates, have become very complicated in this war. All of them end up detected by the drone network that flies 24 hours a day, seven days a week, crashing into minefields, enemy artillery and drones as suicidal as the mission itself.