Erdogan could lose the presidency this Sunday, according to polls
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could lose the presidency in this Sunday's elections, according to the results of two polls published this Thursday, a few hours after finishing this hard-fought election campaign.. Konda, one of the most prestigious polling companies in Turkey, points out that the main candidate against Erdogan, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, would receive 49.3% of the vote, while the current president would be five points below, at 43.7%.. If neither candidate breaks the 50% barrier, the country's future president will be decided in a second round on May 28..
On the other hand, the Yöneylem poll predicts 49.5% of the votes for Kiliçdaroglu and 44.4 for Erdogan. Two other candidates are running in the presidential elections but neither currently exceeds 5% of the votes. One of them, Muharrem Ince, a former ally of Kiliçdaroglu, withdrew his candidacy this morning, after a sex scandal in which he was allegedly involved was revealed last night.. “I withdraw from the race. I'm doing it for my country,” Ince said at a press conference.. The candidate concentrated a month ago about 5-7% of the votes, mainly from young citizens dissatisfied with Erdogan and Kiliçdaroglu. His popularity was deflating in the polls as the elections approached.. His withdrawal adds uncertainty to the vote and could give Kiliçdaroglu more leverage to win in the first round, analysts say. The fourth candidate, Sinan Ogan, a former member of the ultranationalist MHP party, attracts about 4% of the vote.
If this Sunday's vote conforms to the polls, it would spell the end of twenty years in power for Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who took office as prime minister in 2002 and as president in 2014.. Turkey switched from a parliamentary to a presidential system in 2018, eliminating the figure of the prime minister and concentrating much of the executive powers in the figure of the president.
Social Democrat Kemal Kiliçdaroglu has the support of a coalition of six opposition parties, center-left, nationalists, liberals and Islamists. In recent weeks he has received the backing of the pro-Kurdish left-wing coalition, which could contribute 10% of the vote.
Parliamentarians present a different picture. Erdogan's coalition, of the party he presides over – the Islamist AKP – along with other ultranationalist and Islamist formations, could obtain 44% of the votes, according to Konda data.. Meanwhile, the opposition coalition, which supports Kiliçdaroglu, would obtain 39.9% of the votes. Erdogan would get more support in Parliament, although without reaching an absolute majority.
A few hours after closing the electoral campaign, Erdogan has hardened his speech against the opposition coalition, which he calls “LGBTI” and receiving support from terrorist groups, alluding to the support of Kurdish left-wing parties, which the government considers linked to the PKK guerrillas. Last Sunday Erdogan called on his voters to convince their relatives to vote for his party to “not have accidents this Sunday”.. “The opposition promises to release terrorists from prison, promises to employ supporters of terrorist organizations. Even worse, it promises to leave our children in the clutches of LGBTI perverts,” he declared during the event.. Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu warned that these elections are a “coup by the West” supporting the opposition.
The escalation of tension in the campaign, led to a stone attack by ultranationalists at a rally of the main opposition coalition, in which seven civilians were injured. The opposition has asked its voters to remain calm and not to go out to celebrate victory if they win, so as not to provoke clashes in the streets.