Erdogan risks the presidency of Turkey in historic elections with the opposition ahead in the polls

“My people will not let the drunkard take the square and leave. We will not let Kiliçdaroglu, who is traveling with terrorist organizations, have this country divided.”. At 69 and after two decades in power, Recep Tayyip Erdogan sees his retirement closer than ever. And the elevated tone of the campaign proves it. Two decades ago the Türkiye he picked up was not the same; and he neither. Despite the fact that he has been presumed politically dead on many occasions, it is now when the polls show him as the loser of the elections this Sunday, May 14. A historic opposition alliance that brings together six parties of different political persuasions threatens to seize power from him.

In the elections, three candidates seek to seize the keys to the country. The first is Erdogan, current president, leader of the AKP and backed by the Alianza Popular coalition.. The second is Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, leader of the People’s Republican Party (CHP) and the National Alliance coalition. This main opposition alliance is also supported by the Labor and Freedom Alliance, led by the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Pro-Democratic Party (HDP). Finally, Sinan Ogan is the candidate of the Ancestral Alliance, which brings together several nationalist right-wing parties.

Until this Thursday there was also a fourth candidate running for president: Muharren Ince, former CHP presidential candidate in the 2018 elections, who was unable to renew his candidacy and created the Homeland Party. Ince's abandonment occurs after it was spread that he has allegedly been the victim of a blackmail attempt with a video of sexual content. The withdrawal of this candidate could give the opposition more chances, which is why there has been speculation about an attempt by Erdogan to pay him to run in the elections. Ince has denied the existence of this alleged sex video and the rumors about Erdogan, alluding that he is retiring “for his country.”

During this time, Erdogan has survived corruption scandals, massive protests, a coup attempt, a world economic crisis, inflation of 50% and even an earthquake with more than 50,000 deaths. The Turkish leader who has had the most power since Mustafa Kemal Atatürk founded the Republic of Turkey in 1923 now faces a decisive test: remain in power (after changing the constitution in 2017) or cede the reins of the country.

Two decades of authoritarian turn

Born into a modest family in 1954, Erdogan began his political career as mayor of Istanbul between 1994 and 1998.. Three years after leaving the mayor's office, he founded the Justice and Development party (AKP), an Islamist formation that inherited parties that had been outlawed.. The secular tradition founded by Atatürk led the party to define itself at the beginning as a conservative democrat and with a view to the European Union.

Erdogan then assured that the AKP was similar to what in other European countries are defined as Christian-democratic formations, focused on economic management and moderate in religion.. After serving as mayor, he would become prime minister in 2003.. During his first years in office, there was “a moment of democratization promoted by Turkey's candidacy for the EU that it inherited from the previous government but that Erdogan also promoted,” Carmen Rodríguez, a professor at the Department of Education, told 20minutos.. of Arab and Islamic Studies of the Autonomous University of Madrid.

Starting in 2013, following the Gezi protests, this authoritarian turn began in a more blatant way, which became more evident after the 2016 coup attempt and the 2017 constitutional change to a presidential system that concentrated all powers in the Presidency of the Republic. The statutes of his party limited the terms as prime minister to three, so after passing through that position Erdogan ran for president and held a referendum to change the Turkish political system and that power be held by his new position.

“Then it goes from an effective democracy to a competitive authoritarianism, because there is a real opposition within Turkey, but it is a competition that faces the party in power unequally,” says Rodríguez.

Erdogan's authoritarian turn in the second decade of the 2000s will go hand in hand with a much more nationalist discourse. “It focuses on the Kurdish question and also on a growing religious and Islamist discourse that, in fact, we are seeing in the main electoral coalition partners with whom it goes to the polls.. They are mostly candidates for far-right, nationalist and Islamist parties,” says the UAM professor.

Economy and anti-corruption to unseat Erdogan

For Senén Florensa, general director of the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) and former permanent representative of Spain to the United Nations, during his career, “Erdogan contradicts himself a bit” and “that is now taking its toll” with the new generations. “At first it presented itself as the only one capable of building a Muslim democracy, but then in recent years the direction has been the opposite,” says Florensa. Since 2008, the opposition member Kemal Kiliçdaroglu has denounced dozens of corruption cases in which AKP members were involved, and the opposition accuses Erdogan of having agglutinated a lot of power.

After the 2016 coup attempt by the Army (historical guarantor of the secularism of the State), he takes the opportunity not only to purge this estate, but also to purge the judiciary, diplomacy and administration. “Tens of thousands of people were removed from the environment,” says the director of the IEMed. This authoritarian drift “has taken its toll even with traditional voters,” acknowledges Florensa, who also points to the end of the economic boom and inflation of almost 50% in the country.

The opposition accuses Erdogan of having unleashed inflation with his policy of reducing interest rates to encourage spending, production and employment. The Turkish lira is at historical lows and unemployment is at 22.5%. “Do not sacrifice your leader for the onion and the potato,” said the current president during a rally, referring to the current situation.

In addition, in February of this year an earthquake in the south of the country left more than 50,000 dead.. Many were those who predicted that the criticized management of the aid to the victims and the denunciations of urban corruption in the licenses to create those buildings without the necessary anti-seismic structure were going to enter the public debate ahead of the elections.. Erdogan has tried to turn the disaster in his favor, promising construction, blaming builders and claiming a quick delivery of homes, ensuring that only he can guarantee the reconstruction of the area.

On the other hand, the opposition has not been especially merciless on this issue. “The earthquake is not being one of the main axes of the campaign to attack the Government. It is coming out especially in terms of logistical issues, since around two million displaced people are going to have a difficult time voting,” says Carmen Rodríguez.

Fear that the results will not be recognized?

A few hours before the elections, Erdogan has compared the voting this Sunday with the 2016 coup attempt. “If necessary, just like on the night of July 15, we will defend our independence and our future, even with our lives,” he said.

All the polls indicate that he will lose the elections, what is not clear is whether the opposition will reach the necessary 50% in the first round or a second round will be needed. Erdogan has said that “he will not give up serving his country” and the opposition fears that if the result is adjusted, the current president will not recognize the results. This already happened in 2019, when he lost the mayoralty of Istanbul to the CHP. The president ended up forcing the elections to be repeated, although he would end up giving birth to them by more margin.

In one of the last acts of the campaign, Kiliçdaroglu has asked his followers to go out and vote without worrying and to trust in the measures they have taken to defend the fairness of the elections. The leader of the National Alliance believes that he will win in the first round and has demanded that his followers be restrained in the celebration, given the possibility that violent groups in favor of Erdogan cause riots.

“It is a great occasion in which there can be an important change”, recognizes Senén Florensa. This Sunday a divided Turkey will decide between two completely different projects, in an election that will undoubtedly mark the history of the country.