The failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive has resurrected fears in the old continent of a Russian attack in central Europe. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius flatly states that “Vladimir Putin will one day even attack a NATO country”. Although a Russian attack is not likely “for now,” the minister added that his “experts expect a period of five to eight years in which this could be possible,” Pistorius explained to the German media Der Tagesspiegel in an interview published last Friday. .
Russia's neighbors know they are in the crosshairs. “If Russia is not stopped in Ukraine, it could continue. And the Baltic states will be next,” Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuania's foreign minister, told reporters in Brussels on Monday.
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European fear is not new. The German Ministry of Defense has been considering a possible scenario in which Russia attacks NATO's eastern flank in 2025 for some time.. This is stated in the publication of the German newspaper Bild.. The publication claims that it has in its possession a secret document from the German Ministry of Defense. The scenario, called 'Defense Alliance 2025', describes possible actions by Russia and the West “month by month”, leading to an inevitable outbreak of war in the summer of 2025.”
The first step would be a victory in Ukraine. Part of the price would be paid by the Russians: in February 2024, Russian authorities would announce a new wave of mobilization, recruiting 200,000 more people into the army.. It is not clear where they would get the war material that they have lost on the front so quickly, but the German document predicts a spring offensive in Ukraine, which in June could already be “a great success” and push back the Ukrainian troops.. With Putin victorious in Ukraine, Central Europe is the next step.
A Russian advance in Ukraine could modify the initial resistance to making concessions to Russia: in Ukraine, for fear of losing all the disputed territories; and in the EU, to contain waves of refugees, which can destabilize political systems.
Progress by phases
With the EU, the first approach would be less conventional: cyber attacks and “other forms of hybrid warfare”, mainly in the Baltic countries, which will lead to “new crises”. According to the scenario, “first a hidden and then increasingly open Russian attack against the West” will begin in July.
Russian authorities would also begin “inciting” ethnic Russians in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The objective is to create “confrontations” that in themselves mean nothing, but that Russia would use as a pretext to launch large-scale maneuvers called 'Zapad-2024' in the west of the Russian Federation and Belarus, with the participation of 50,000 soldiers. in September.
Moscow would thus repeat the 2021 plan, when it carried out maneuvers near the border with Ukraine. Now it would be the borders of Poland and Lithuania that would be threatened. Contemplating this Russian plan is not new, as it has been studied several times by NATO as a possible future scenario.
A variable that did not exist in 2021 in the case of Ukraine is the advance that its Kaliningrad region represents for Russia, nestled between Poland and Lithuania. It represents a strength and at the same time a weakness: Russia would deploy additional troops and medium-range missiles there, but sound the alarm about an alleged imminent attack by NATO.. The plan: seize the Suwalki Corridor, which connects the Baltics with their NATO allies. If Russia takes over that strip, its territory of Kaliningrad will be united with its ally Belarus.
The German document suggests that Russia “will repeat the 2014 invasion of eastern Ukraine on NATO territory”. NATO will be forced to decide when to apply the well-known Article 5, which establishes that partners must come to the aid of a member country if it is attacked. But this will happen just at the moment when the US is electing a new president.
The impending US presidential election and possible re-election of Donald Trump could cause military aid to dry up completely, which could have cascading effects on European nations.. The Baltic countries and Poland would sound the alarm, Moscow hopes that Europe will not react correctly because of the division.
In March 2025, Russia would deploy additional troops to the borders of the Baltic countries. According to the scenario, the Kremlin would place two tank divisions and one motorized rifle division in Belarus; In total there will be more than 70,000 soldiers. NATO, for its part, would react defensively by putting 300,000 in the Lithuanian corridor. “NATO will defend every centimeter of the integrity of the Baltic States,” Lieutenant General Jürgen-Joachim von Sandrart, who is the general commander of NATO's Northeast Multinational Corps, assured EL MUNDO.
Western analysts suggest it will take Putin at least several years to make up for Russian military losses in Ukraine. But his victory in Kiev would break the confidence of the countries of Central Europe, a geographical area in which Russia has long placed part of its claims, many times through the mouth of former Russian president Dimitri Medvedev, current number two on the Security Council. of Putin
President Vladimir Putin assured Chinese leader Xi Jinping that his invasion of Ukraine would last five years, Japanese newspaper Nikkei reported in December, citing multiple anonymous sources familiar with Russian-Chinese diplomatic maneuvers.. In 2022, Ukrainian forces took military analysts by surprise. Russia is unlikely to change its war goals in 2024,