Israel advances in the second phase of the war against Hamas and seeks to divide Gaza in two: what does it consist of and how long will it last?

Israel has launched the second phase of its war against Hamas, as announced this weekend by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.. This is, without a doubt, the longest and most complicated stage of the plan designed by the Hebrew government to end the threat of Islamist militias in the Gaza Strip and which consists of three phases.

What does phase 2 of the Israeli plan consist of?

The second phase of the Israeli strategy is what is known as the ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, which began during the early hours of this Friday to Saturday.. “Our soldiers are in the Gaza Strip, they are deployed everywhere,” Netanyahu declared on Saturday, confirming that infantry troops and armored vehicles of the Israeli army are already deployed inside the Strip.

How long will it last?

Netanyahu himself stated in a televised speech that “the war inside Gaza is going to be long” and equated it to a “Israel's second war of independence.”. Hebrew military intelligence contemplates that this phase of the war could last several months.

“Israel's intention is not to enter, clean and leave, as on other occasions in which it has carried out retaliation operations or raids to capture or kill a terrorist. Now the intention is to stay in the Strip and the Israeli army is prepared so that this war could last up to a year. Israel is planning a long-term war and staying in the Strip for a long time,” says Ernesto Pascual, doctor in International Relations at the UOC.

What is the objective of phase 2?

The objective is none other than “to eliminate all sources of Hamas resistance,” as stated by the Israeli Minister of Defense, Yoav Gallant, while pursuing the release of the hostages kidnapped by the Islamist militia.

The first phase of Israel's plan was launched on Saturday, October 7, the day of the Hamas massacre in Israeli territory, and consisted of an intense campaign of aerial bombardments against the Strip to “destroy Hamas' infrastructure.”. It lasted 21 days until early this Saturday, phase 2 began, the objective of which is to end all the resistance of the Islamist militias, once their infrastructure was reduced from the air.

Pascual maintains that completely ending Hamas “is going to be complicated,” although he points out that “with a long stay on the territory” by the Israeli army, “it can be achieved.”

How has the second phase started?

The Israeli army has entered Gaza territory through several points in the north of the Strip and has even reached the capital: Gaza City.. Heavy fighting has taken place against pockets of resistance in the northeastern city of Beit Hanoun, as well as in the central area of Bureij and in the capital's suburbs.. In addition, Israeli troops have cut off the Salah al-Din road (the Saladin road), the main artery that connects the north of the Strip with the south.

Pascual points out that Israel is trying to control all the roads that connect Gaza City with the rest of the Strip to “strangle the areas where they consider there is greater Hamas infrastructure.”. For now, the Israeli strategy has drawn a divide in the central area of the Strip and the army concentrates its efforts in the northern half.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have reported, for their part, that in the last 24 hours they have attacked “more than 450 terrorist targets” in Gaza, including “operational command centers, observation posts and launching points.” of anti-tank missiles”.

The ground invasion of Gaza also has air support, since selective bombing continues in large areas of the Strip and helicopters are also intervening to neutralize Hamas positions.

What are the risks?

This phase of the war against Hamas is the most risky for Israeli soldiers and the Ministry of Defense assumes that it will have to count casualties in its ranks, although at the moment it has not offered figures for victims or injuries.

In this regard, Professor Pascual points out that these casualties will cause discomfort in an Israeli society that, for the moment, massively supports the military intervention in Gaza: “Israel has to be prepared to suffer casualties and that will affect Israeli public opinion. Launching aerial bombardments, where there are no casualties beyond carrying the collateral damage caused on your conscience, is not the same as entering the field, because there you will have personal casualties and those casualties will reach Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.. “We will have to see how far the Israeli population is able to withstand the flood of casualties that will occur.”

The complex system of tunnels that Hamas has in northern Gaza is the great obstacle for the Israeli army, since it hides numerous ammunition and a good part of the Islamist infrastructure.

For their part, the local authorities of Gaza, under the command of Hamas, report that more than 8,000 Palestinians have died since the beginning of the Israeli bombings and it is feared that the ground incursion will increase the number of victims.

Could there be a global war in the region?

Israel's ground incursion will further raise tensions in the region and violent clashes have already occurred in the West Bank. In fact, Israeli forces killed four Palestinians this Monday in a military operation in the Jenin refugee camp, north of the West Bank, where 122 Palestinians have already died since the war in Gaza began.

At the same time, Israeli forces “are on alert” on the border with Lebanon and Syria against possible incursions by Hezbollah militiamen. In that sense, a spokesman for the Hebrew army has warned that “any terrorist squad that Hezbollah sends towards the border fence with Israel will die.”

Pascual does not rule out that the conflict could escalate into a broader war in the region: “There may be a reaction from the Arab world in this regard and we will see what it is.”

What will happen in phase 3?

Phase three will begin when Israel has completely neutralized the terrorist threat in Gaza and consists, in the words of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, in “the elimination of Israel's responsibility for life in the Gaza Strip and the establishment of a new security reality for the citizens of Israel.

In other words, when Israel considers the Strip pacified, it intends for it to stop depending on Israel for its supplies, as was the case until now.. Although it withdrew its troops from Gaza in 2005, the UN continues to consider the Strip as an occupied territory, like the West Bank, and considers Israel responsible for the basic needs of its inhabitants.

“Israel has designed a long-term plan in three phases and these types of plans hold everything on the maps, but the reality is that we have many previous experiences, such as the United States in Vietnam or the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, in which these operations were they complicate a lot. Maintaining order in a hostile territory is always complicated,” says Pascual.