US President Joe Biden's enormous optimism about an imminent truce in the Gaza Strip is not shared by Israel and the Islamist group Hamas, as they continue their indirect negotiations under Egyptian-Qatari-US mediation.
“My National Security Advisor tells me that we are close. It's not done yet, but we're close. “I hope that by next Monday we will have a ceasefire,” Biden surprised before the two parties and Qatar threw water on the forecast that was even colder than the ice cream that the president was carrying in his hand.. It was interpreted more as a wish than as rational forecast based on what is happening on the war front and at the negotiating table.
The belief in the region is that the agreement for a truce of at least 40 days is more feasible than ever, but not within the deadline declared by Biden. While Hamas warns that “important differences” remain and accuses Israel of not wanting to end its offensive definitively, Israeli sources downgraded the notable optimism they leaked after the Paris summit, held on Friday with the US, Egypt and Qatar.. Furthermore, they denounced that “the terrorist group does not renounce its intransigent demands”. “There are still many obstacles,” a source in Israel told CNN.
Biden's successive statements on the war demonstrate his personal commitment and his presidential desire – translated into increasing pressure – to achieve a ceasefire in the devastating war that would allow the release of the 134 kidnapped people, some of them also with American nationality, and alleviate the dramatic humanitarian crisis suffered by Gazans, including the threat of famine, after almost five months of military operation.
An offensive that could extend to its terrestrial aspect in a very sensitive area and time. Rafah and Ramadan are two key words on the negotiating table. Like the two sides in a war that turned 144 days this Tuesday, Biden wants a truce before the start of Ramadan scheduled for March 10 or 11.
The holiest month for Muslims is a special, spiritual, community and family event that Gaza hopes to celebrate without airstrikes or fighting.. Ramadan is also usually the time when tension increases around the Esplanade of the Mosques or Temple Mount in Jerusalem, as well as Palestinian attacks in Israel.
“Ramadan is approaching and there has been an agreement by the Israelis that they would not carry out (military) activities during Ramadan to give us time to remove all the hostages,” Biden declared on NBC, in which he warned the first Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that “if this continues with this incredibly conservative government that they have, and Ben-Gvir (far-right leader) and others…. “They are going to lose the support of the whole world, and that is not in Israel's interest.”.
“A poll released this Tuesday shows that 82% of Americans support Israel,” replied the Israeli leader in a video accompanied by a statement whose title reflects the tension: “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responds to US President Joe Biden “.
The Rafah operation
The other major issue cited by the mediators that has raised concern and with it the urgency of an agreement is the announced ground operation in Rafah.. Israel affirms that it will enter that area near the Egyptian border to dismantle the last Hamas battalions, but it would postpone the incursion for a ceasefire that frees its people from the hands of the militia..
Biden leads international pressure to avoid the operation in an area where more than half of the 2.3 million inhabitants of the Gaza Strip live poorly. A few days ago and secretly, the head of the Israeli Army and internal security service visited Cairo to discuss with his Egyptian counterparts the evacuation plans for civilians from Rafah, most of whom were displaced, before an action that is also of great concern. to the Arab country.
Qatar hopes to reach an agreement before Ramadan and avoid the attack in Rafah, but does not believe it will be possible next Monday as Biden suggested. “There is no news in the hostage exchange negotiations and a ceasefire in Gaza,” reacted the Foreign Affairs spokesman, Majed Bin Mohamed Al Ansari, although he was optimistic because “the negotiation continues at various levels.”. An Israeli delegation remains in Doha to reduce differences.
The terms of the negotiation
The leaks that come out every day from the Israeli cabinet (sometimes of very different color and interest depending on the source), from the Hamas leadership and from the mediating trio (USA, Egypt and Qatar) are a powerful psychological instrument in the negotiation, with effects on war. But it also serves to draw up the roadmap for what would be the first stage of the truce.. It would be a 40-day ceasefire in which Hamas would free 40 of the Israelis it kidnapped in the October 7 attack.. According to a document revealed by Channel 13, there would be 15 over 50 years of age, 13 sick, 12 women (7 who should have been released in the November truce and 5 soldiers).
In exchange, Israel would release 400 Palestinian prisoners with a ratio of 10 prisoners and a day of truce for each kidnapped person released.. This is a proposal that Hamas continues to study, as revealed to the Reuters agency.. The exact number and identity of the 400 Palestinian prisoners to be released must be agreed upon by the parties, although the mediation document, according to Channel 13, establishes that 15 are “heavyweights” serving life sentences for serious attacks.
The Israeli Army must also relocate its troops in the Gaza Strip, moving away from the most populated areas, stop its aerial reconnaissance and intelligence missions carried out by drones for eight hours a day, and allow the gradual return of displaced civilians from northern Gaza.. Likewise, humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip will increase to 500 trucks per day and the rehabilitation of hospitals and bakeries will be allowed, according to Reuters.
Hamas insists on its main demand: the Israeli commitment to end – and not just suspend – the massive offensive launched after the 7-0 attack. Israel refuses since, it alleges, this would mean failing to achieve the stated objective of completely ending the military and control capabilities of the Islamist group in the Palestinian enclave.