When in 2017 he decided to carry out a march on foot of more than 420 kilometers from Ankara to Istanbul to protest against the Government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, few could have imagined that six years later the polls would indicate him as the next president of Turkey.. At 74 years old, the Social Democrat Kemal Kiliçdaroglu has needed to shake up the Turkish political landscape to be able to stand up to a president who has more power than any other in history. A coalition of up to six parties, the support of the Kurds and an Erdogan with the lowest popularity rating in two decades is the recipe for this former official and former director of the Turkish Social Security.

Erdogan and Kiliçdaroglu represent the two great Turkish traditions: the Islamist tradition against the secularism that looks to the West. In the year that marks the 100th anniversary of the creation of modern Turkey, Kiliçdaroglu, who is originally from the Kurdish-majority region of Dersim and belongs to the Alevi minority, a heterodox branch of Islam, defends the most basic essences of the Republic founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk: a secular country and a modern democracy open to the outside.

Nicknamed “the Turkish Gandhi” for his resemblance to the Indian leader, since 2008 he has denounced dozens of corruption cases in which members of the AKP, the current president's party, were involved.. Already in 2019, he pointed to a fierce fight to remove Erdogan from power, who two years earlier had reformed the constitution so that the president could have political influence, something that until then had been held by the prime minister.. Kiliçdaroglu's party, the Republican People's Party (CHP) created by Atatürk himself then managed to win several major cities, including Istanbul.

From Erdogan in 2002 to Kiliçdaroglu in 2023

Although it is difficult to conceive of it today, the truth is that Erdogan's coming to power at the beginning of the century does not differ that much from Kiliçdaroglu's current claims. The AKP was founded in 2001 as a conservative democratic party.. Despite the fact that some of its members came from previously outlawed Islamist parties, they initially had no religious claims.

“They were conservative Democrats. In fact, they asked to be observers of the European People's Party within the institutions of the European Union and in the first legislature they managed to open negotiations for accession to the EU”, explains Carmen Rodríguez, professor of the Department of. of Arab and Islamic Studies of the Autonomous University of Madrid. The veto of several countries (France among them) would not be long in coming and Turkey's European future would end up being one of the great frustrations for Erdogan himself.

“The opposition has proposed improving relations with the European Union and reactivating accession negotiations,” recalls Professor Rodríguez, who adds that “they want to improve relations with the United States and anchor Turkey in NATO, preserving their national interests”. Regarding Russia, “they understand that it is an inevitable partner with which there are important energy and economic ties to maintain.. In fact, they consider Turkey's position in the Ukraine conflict to be positive, a position defined as active neutrality seeking avenues of negotiation,” he says.

Regarding the Islamization process carried out by Erdogan, these two decades he has sought to gradually dismantle Kemalism (ideology that descends from Atatürk). “The Army, which was the guarantor of that secular State, was purged after the 2016 coup attempt. But not only the Army, but also took the opportunity to do so in the judiciary, diplomacy and the entire administration. Tens of thousands of people were removed from the environment,” Senén Florensa, general director of the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) and former permanent representative of Spain to the United Nations, assures this outlet.

Despite this, “Erdogan's re-Islamization has not been able to sweep away the effects of all that historical modernizing policy either.. That is where the positions of the two candidates with options come up against each other,” says Florensa.

A diverse coalition

What then is the uniqueness of these choices? that the opposition presents itself as a united force against Erdogan. The National Alliance, led by Kiliçdaroglu, brings together six parties (called the table of 6) of diverse political persuasions but with a joint manifesto with common objectives if they came to power. Among them are two parties of leaders who have come out of the AKP: one of them is a former prime minister and another led by a former economy minister under Erdogan.

One of the most complex decisions was deciding who would be the leader of the alliance and, after choosing Kiliçdaroglu, he has turned to launching messages that appeal to the economic and social situation that Turkey is going through. “They seek to address the concerns of a citizen who is greatly affected by both the political situation and an economic situation marked by very high inflation and also by the depreciation of the Turkish lira,” Rodríguez adds.. Faced with the confrontation and even insult from Erdogan, Rodríguez affirms that the opposition has carried out “a day-to-day campaign, very social and purposeful”, avoiding even using the February earthquake as a battering ram against the ruling party.

All in all, governing with so many parties raises a reasonable doubt as to whether in a real scene they could manage that internal diversity. For Rodríguez, “it plays in favor that there is already an agreed roadmap, with which there are already steps that they have agreed to carry out”. On the other hand, these parties “have suffered considerably from the authoritarian turn of recent years” and “without a doubt this is going to be a catalytic mechanism that will lead them to try to stay in power.”

Another scenario that could occur this Sunday is that the opposition wins the presidency but loses parliament, since both things are voted on May 14. If it occurs, “it would be very difficult for the opposition to carry out major legislative changes that require a qualified majority of deputies and, above all, for constitutional changes,” says Carmen Rodríguez. On the other hand, Florensa points out that in this case it could be that they can govern “thanks to Erdogan's own reforms to give the president more power”, turning against his own constitutional change. Likewise, the support that the alliance has will also be essential for governance, where the Kurds will play a prominent role.

The Kurds, a fundamental support

The Kurdish conflict has left more than 50,000 dead in the last 35 years, also becoming one of the great obsessions of the Erdogan government. Leaders of the Turkish left have assured that with them in power they will seek to resolve it and in the opposition alliance there is a consensus on the need to address the Kurdish issue within Parliament. It has been precisely this fact that has led Erdogan to accuse the opposition of collaborating with “terrorists”.

“Kiliçdaroglu's party has made an interesting journey in the last decade in order to approach the Kurdish question in a dialogue and negotiated manner,” says Rodríguez. Some surveys indicate that the CHP could have deputies in some Kurdish provinces for the first time.

“It is estimated that only the pro-Kurdish party gets close to 11% of the votes, so obviously it is a very important actor”. The Labor and Freedom Alliance, led by the pro-Kurdish People's Pro-Democratic Party (HDP) has already announced that it will support the candidacy of Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, so in the face of a second round if no candidate reaches 50% this Sunday, those votes they could end up in the opposing alliance.

“For the first time in the last 20 years there are options that there really is an alternation,” acknowledges Senén Florensa, who asks to be attentive to what happens on Sunday and, above all, to the post-electoral process.