Kevin McCarthy, facing the abyss of a motion of censure

The civil war between Republicans in Congress has begun. The hard wing of the conservative caucus began its strategy on Monday night to replace Kevin McCarthy as president of the House of Representatives, a rebellion on board concocted by Matt Gaetz, the radical congressman from Florida, who still has not forgiven him for his betrayal. having avoided the government shutdown late on Saturday with the help of Democrats. Paradoxically, McCarthy now depends on progressives to survive the no-confidence vote against him.

The still leader of the Republicans responded an hour later with a call to the vote in which he has shown himself convinced of saving his position, also firm in his intention not to give in to the Democrats or reach agreements behind the scenes to ensure success in the recount.. The problem is that the accounts don't add up.. Republicans have 221 seats and Democrats 212. It is enough for a handful of the wayward Republicans to turn their backs on him – which seems quite likely – for him to be at the mercy of the rival bench, which neither trusts McCarthy nor is willing to support him without a series of favorable conditions for his supporters. interests.

A triumph of the republican rebellion would have serious political implications. A vacancy in the presidency of the House of Representatives would mean a paralysis of activity until a new leader is elected.. Or what is the same, chaos. All this with the latent threat of a new Government closure after the partial agreement last weekend, which is only valid until November 17.

McCarthy has refused to apologize for his political maneuvering to keep the government operational.. “If at the end of the day I am removed from office because I took action to ensure that Border Patrol troops and agents continue to get paid, that is a fight worth fighting,” said the California congressman.

Democrats have not spoken out forcefully for or against either.. His position is lukewarm for obvious reasons.. On the one hand, it is an opportunity to put an end to a political rival who is behind the formal investigation against Joe Biden – en route to impeachment – for the alleged shady dealings of his son, Hunter Biden, abroad.. But on the other hand, they know that it is their best card to avoid the closure of the Government in November.

What seems clear is that the confrontation between McCarthy and Gaetz has entered personal territory. The wayward congressmen reluctantly accepted his appointment as speaker of the House of Representatives last January, and since then have done everything possible to torpedo his path, with Gaetz as the leader of that opposition.

“I think we have to move forward with new leadership that can be trusted,” Gaetz said Sunday, a challenge his more moderate opponent appears to have accepted.. “So be it. Let's end this and start governing,” McCarthy replied.. His future, in the air and pending Tuesday's vote in the House of Representatives. Continuity or chaos?