The war in Ukraine, which will reach its second anniversary next week, has gone through all kinds of phases, from a military, diplomatic, political and economic point of view.. Without a doubt, the most pessimistic moment can be identified in the days after the invasion, when everyone in Brussels, headquarters of the community institutions but also of NATO, assumed that Kiev would fall in a matter of weeks, if not days.. The Russian army seemed unstoppable, the Ukrainian defenses insufficient, and all calls were for Volodymyr Zelensky and his men to withdraw or be evacuated immediately.. But it didn't happen. They did not leave, nor did the country fall nor was the Russian power so formidable. And with heroic resistance, and multimillion-dollar military aid from the allies, the conflict stalled.

Now, however, 24 months later, the feeling is increasingly negative. There was a warning at the return of summer. In Washington, fed up with Zelensky not listening, paying attention to reasons or accepting nuances, they gave a severe wake-up call through an article published in The New York Times talking about the fissures in the Ukrainian military strategy, the problems of understanding, how Pentagon help was seriously compromised. In kyiv they did not pay much attention and the situation has only gotten worse. At the end of August, the European ministers, meeting in Toledo, showed their growing concern. The electoral framework does not help, but there were also, even among the most faithful supporters of the resistance, fissures, doubts, and fatigue.. And the figure of President Zelensky was beginning to turn out to be more of a problem than an asset in some capitals.

In Washington, aid is effectively blocked. The Senate gave the green light this Tuesday barely and after serious disagreements, but now it has a more than uncertain future in Congress. The doubts come from the Republican Party, the one that belonged to Reagan or Bush, the one that called for tearing down the Berlin Wall and wanted to suffocate the Kremlin. A growing number of your congressmen and senators, radicalized, nihilistic, authoritarian, today buy Putin's interpretation and speech word for word and refuse to continue sending money. The US has set aside 75,000 million euros in these two years, and all the members of NATO, more than 100,000 million, as the Secretary General of the Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, repeated this Thursday at the end of the meeting of the Defense Ministers of the 31.

Membership in the community club

In recent weeks, the European Union has given the green light to the start of accession negotiations for Ukraine and Moldova and approved a mechanism, within the review of the community budget, to financially support Kiev for the next four years, with 17 billion in transfers. and 33,000 million more in loans. But also with reservations. It's not just Hungary, but partners like Slovakia want to put on the brakes. The Netherlands does not yet have a government, but the winner of the elections, Geert Wilders, has never hidden his sympathies either.. And there are more, either because of ideology or because of exhaustion, who would not suffer much by changing their mind.

In the corridors of the Alliance, the concern, the doubts. Because of the bloody nature of the conflict, because of the threat of a possible new Russian offensive when the spring ends. For its rearmaments, with the direct or indirect help of China, North Korea and others. Because of the divisions in kyiv, after Zelensky replaced the commander in chief of the Armed Forces, Valeri Zaluzhni. And because diplomats and analysts warn of a tired, mobilized country that will be very difficult to lead in the coming months and in peace.. Ukraine desperately needs billions to avoid losing the war, but that is not even enough to win it.

The debate these days in Brussels has turned towards what exactly it means to win or lose. What can be admissible, acceptable, tolerable. Politically but also socially. Resistance in the Black Sea is formidable, but Ukraine fails to disrupt communication lines between Crimea and Donbas. The view at headquarters is that we are facing a new challenge and learning as we go, because Eastern Ukraine is a combination of the trench warfare of the First World War, combined with modern 21st century technology, especially drones .

NATO, as always, has reiterated through its ministers, and after listening to the Ukrainian about the situation on the ground, its support and committed more help. “In recent days new packages have been announced, including with Canada, Finland or Norway, which will provide spare parts and material for the F16 and air defenses,” said Stoltenberg.. Additionally, a group of allies has announced a collaboration with the aim of providing up to one million drones to Ukraine.. In addition to resources to help clear the liberated territories of mines, which are almost 50% of the total that was occupied in 2022.

This drone coalition will be made up of the United Kingdom or Latvia, but there are also countries such as Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands and the rest of the Baltic countries interested.. Drones are not only small observation and espionage devices, but they have changed the way war is conducted. They can carry weapons and equipment, bomb and be used as missiles. The Iranians have helped Moscow attack Ukrainian cities, and vice versa. By air but also by sea, something key to weakening the Russian Navy in the Black Sea. There are purely military ones and those for civil use but converted, much cheaper and which have become essential at borders and barricades.

“The UK continues to do everything it can to give Ukraine what it needs.. We are increasing our support to £2.5bn this year and committing a further £200m to manufacturing drones, making us Ukraine's largest drone supplier.. Today we go even further. I am proud to announce that the UK and Latvia will co-lead an international coalition to develop Ukraine's vital drone capabilities. Together, we will give Kiev the capabilities it needs to defend itself and win this war, to ensure that Putin fails in his illegal and barbaric ambitions,” the British Defense Minister explained during the meeting in Brussels.

In total, Stoltenberg has calculated that there may be up to a million of them at Ukraine's disposal in 2024, a gigantic figure.. A few days ago, in an appearance with Jake Sullivan, North American National Security Advisor, the Secretary General stressed that the industrial base is critical, because now we are facing a war of attrition and a war of attrition inevitably becomes a war of logistics.. “Drones have played an important role throughout this war. Türkiye has provided Bayraktar drones since before the large-scale invasion. And now they are setting up a new factory to produce more in Ukraine.”

Stoltenberg also confirmed this Thursday what was an open secret. NATO will establish, hopefully by the end of this year, a training center for Ukrainian troops in Poland. It is not yet known who will lead it, what budget it will have or how many soldiers will be able to train.. “The details are yet to be decided. We already have the political decision and we must implement it. It is the beginning of the process. We want to learn from the Russian war and for it to be a platform or framework to train Ukrainian soldiers alongside the allies. I hope that the final decision will be adopted later this year,” said the Secretary General.