Scientists warn: the next pandemic will be caused by the flu virus
In the aftermath of the global pandemic caused by the coronavirus, scientists are now directing their efforts towards anticipating the next potential outbreak. Recent research suggests that the flu virus is a significant contender for triggering a new pandemic in the near future. A comprehensive international study involving 187 experienced scientists has revealed that 57% of disease experts believe a strain of the flu virus could be the cause of the next global outbreak of a deadly infectious disease. The research findings will be unveiled next weekend at the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID) congress in Barcelona.
These concerns expressed by scientists align with recent warnings from the World Health Organization (WHO) regarding the rapid spread of the H5N1 variant of the avian flu virus. While there is currently no evidence of human-to-human transmission, the high mortality rate among those who have come into close contact with infected birds is a cause for concern. Any mutations in the flu virus raise alarms as they can potentially increase its adaptability to humans and facilitate person-to-person transmission.
Leading the research, Spanish scientist Jon Salmanton-García from the University of Cologne explains that the seasonal flu outbreaks can be considered as “small pandemics,” relatively controlled due to the limited virulence of the strains causing them. However, this might not always be the case, emphasizing the need for vigilance.
In addition to the flu virus, the study also considers the possibility of an unidentified pathogen called ‘Disease X’ being the cause of a future pandemic, an option not ruled out by 21% of experts. Furthermore, 15% of the surveyed scientists still view the Sars-CoV-2 virus, responsible for the Covid disease, as a potential threat to humanity.
Notably, there has been a surprising occurrence of the H5N1 virus in cattle, alarming the scientific community. The WHO global flu prevention program acknowledged the exponential growth in bird infections and the emergence of affected mammals, including seals, minks, sea lions, and foxes. While the virus’s adaptation to these animals is not confirmed, cases in cows and goats, as seen in the United States, signify a further spread of the virus to mammals.
According to virologist Ed Hutchinson from the University of Glasgow, the increasing spread of the virus among farm animals raises concerns about its potential transmission to humans. He suggests that the more the virus spreads, the higher the likelihood of mutation and subsequent human transmission. However, Hutchinson points out that if an avian flu pandemic were to occur, we would be better equipped to handle it compared to the development of a vaccine for Covid-19 from scratch.