There are several ways of looking at Morocco's decision to literally open its borders for thousands of people to arrive in Ceuta this week.. It can be interpreted as a retaliation, as revenge, as a provocation, as a challenge or an order, or a bit like all of the above at once.. It can also be interpreted as a trial balloon. With a simple gesture, but one with enormous consequences, Rabat has cleared up doubts about five key elements in its always complicated and tense relationship with Spain: what would Moncloa do in the face of a targeted and intentional mass arrival of people, what would Spanish society (since the citizenship to political opposition), how the EU would respond, what steps (if any) the United States would take and what impact the images of hundreds of children abandoned to their fate in the waters of Ceuta have, in the face of global public opinion already the Moroccan

Mohamed VI's international commitment was not in Brussels, but in Washington. And the images give him completely the same, knowing also that the continental eye is almost numb when it does not directly affect it and that the bombing images are more impressive. With the EU it does not have really strong direct or personal bilateral ties, but with the US it does. The foreign relations of both countries go back to the end of the 18th century and, right now, Joe Biden needs Morocco in his chess game in the Middle East. Hence the US recognition of the sovereignty of Western Sahara, hence the conversation this week reinforcing ties so that the Alawite king does not cut ties with Israel despite what is happening in Gaza. And hence also the silence of the State Department on the incidents in Ceuta. There is no intentional rudeness to Spain, but the priorities are clear.

Morocco has backed down in just 48 hours, but interpreting that decision as a defeat, humiliation or the result of strong pressure from Spain and the EU would be a mistake.. Rabat understands, as well or better than Ankara, that the EU and its members need them and that the margin to stretch is very large.. Recep Tayyip Erdogan signed a migration agreement with the 27 to stop the departure of asylum seekers (especially Syrians) from their territory, in exchange for hundreds of millions of euros, the reopening of accession negotiations or a debate on the possibility of abolish the visa requirement for its citizens. But also to guarantee that the EU will bark and not bite in the face of suspected failed coups, party bans and basically any political or geopolitical decision in the region.. And so it has been.

Backed by the US

He has put it to the test many times, including a direct precedent of what he saw this week.. In February and March 2020, Erdogan threw tens of thousands of desperate people against the Greek border, even using live ammunition, to cause destabilization.. There were words, condemnations and expressions of community solidarity, but everything remained the same. A year later tensions returned, the presidents of the Commission and the Council traveled to see him, and he returned the favor with a maneuver with a sofa to humiliate and divide. It went right'. Relations between the two blocs are terrible and there is no chance of reviving the accession talks that were once dreamed of, but Erdogan and the 27 know that if he opens his hand and arrivals return in tens or hundreds of thousands of people, the space of free movement of the EU would not resist it. And they are willing to do almost anything to prevent it.

Morocco does not have so much 'leverage' and needs the help that comes from the EU. Their political and economic relationship is less in that sense than Turkey's, but their power to lobby remains immense.. In just a few hours, Madrid and Brussels have understood that after a year of pandemic there are tens of thousands of people ready to try to cross to the continent, and that gives great negotiating power when summer arrives, both for Sahrawi issues and merely economic ones.. Mohamed VI has seen that the US did not pay attention to an issue that was secondary to them on the global board, that in Spain the division and criticism in the Government and of the Government were almost as strong as those of its neighbors. He has seen the president's car being kicked and applauded. And that some, starting with prominent members of Parliament or former Interior Ministers, blamed Moncloa for everything that happened for offering medical care to a dying enemy of Morocco.. Invaluable information on one side, an important lesson for the other when another similar decision has to be made.

Rabat has also seen that the EU reacted out loud, but little more and it has even collided with Berlin, taking advantage of moments of political weakness in the two European capitals. It is true that the situation now is not that of 1975 and that the migration issue is the most delicate in the Union and they do not like nonsense, but it is also verified that the way to approach this issue in Brussels does not happen through the clash, but through understanding. It's not about how, but for how much. This week is a warning, and it has been heard. Hence the repeated messages about the importance of the relationship, the need for understanding and to return to normality as soon as possible, if the externalization of the migratory problems of a continent to dictatorial or authoritarian regimes with force to stop them can be classified as normal. blackmail almost with impunity.

Confidence in the return of money for control

After the uncontrolled arrivals, Spain immediately mobilized its foreign services to get messages from the European institutions, and achieved unanimous statements, statements and coordinated tweets from all the community presidents and commissioners and MEPs. But if for 12 hours the images in the international media focused on arrivals, rescues and aid, from then on the articles already talked about illegal returns on the fly, beatings of minors and international obligations. And few foreign ministries raised their voices. Nobody wants the immigration problem at home. As seen in the last five years, the 27 are willing to pay, but not very willing to share responsibilities, asylum and management.

Added to this is the fact that Spain has never wanted the EU to play a leading role in this matter.. You want to be the interlocutor with your most problematic neighbor, you want to control the times, the terms of the negotiation, the price. Spain, for 20 years and with all kinds of governments, has done everything possible so that Brussels does not stick its nose. The clashes have been constant, with the Commission, the European Parliament or with Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, created in 2004.

Spain has always thought that it was the Civil Guard and its officials who had to manage the border and arrivals, and that Finnish or Czech Euro-officials were never going to understand the nuances. He does not want the EU (and, ahem, France) to be the one to call the shots or make decisions. No lessons on hot returns or concertinas. He wants support, solidarity, forceful messages, but also the autonomy to solve it. He wants, of course, to settle the situation. And he knows, like the rest of the actors, that the only way on the table is the usual one and that there are many euros at stake.

Brussels has always applauded Madrid for its management of its North African neighbors, for investment, for economic aid, for joint police or military work. The way out is through this scheme. Now it will be politically more difficult, more costly in the media, socially more sensitive and diplomatically somewhat more unpleasant, but no one can conceive of any other way out. Everyone has something to lose and the majority has a lot to gain. At least for now, because since this week Morocco has better information and some certainties.