The EU looks at Turkey: between resignation and hope for a post-Erdogan future

All eyes in the European Union will be this Sunday on Turkey, which is holding presidential elections, the first of the two rounds that are expected to be necessary to determine if Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to be president of the country or if, instead, opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, supported by six formations from the right to the Social Democrats, manages to overthrow the “sultan”, who has turned the country into a one-man regime. In Brussels the favorite scenario is clear, and it is a victory for Kılıçdaroğlu, but no one says it too loudly.

The EU has been very careful to stay completely out of the electoral process for two good reasons.. The first is because they are not simple choices. The prevailing view in Brussels is that with any result too close, Erdogan could try to reverse the result, although if the lead gained by the opposition leader is solid, that fear fades.. But in any case, what is clear is that the scenario in which Erdogan continues in power cannot be ruled out at all, and the Union has learned not to irritate the Turkish leader. The second reason is because the idea of Western interference has become a throwing stone for pro-government conservatives against the opposition, which they accuse of being an instrument of foreign powers.. Any intervention that would allow Erdogan to show his potential voters that this is not an empty accusation, but an event that would damage Kılıçdaroğlu's electoral chances. Thus, the European strategy regarding how to approach the elections in Turkey has been clear: step aside and avoid any type of intervention in the campaign.

Erdogan's continuity draws a relatively familiar scenario. Ankara would continue to be a complicated partner for the Atlantic Alliance and a crucial partner for the European Union, due to its fundamental role in managing migratory flows, but also very unstable.. In any case, in both camps it is expected that after the elections Erdogan could return to adopt a more realistic position and accommodated to Western positions.. The script in case of his victory is more or less known to everyone.. No one is particularly amused, but no one is terrified either..

Kılıçdaroğlu's victory would open, however, a new stage. It is expected that it would lead to a normalization of relations with NATO, thus allowing Sweden's rapid entry into the Atlantic Alliance and restoring confidence between the transatlantic partners, although most likely maintaining ties with Russia, although perhaps less intense than in the Erdogan era, who has a direct relationship with Vladimir Putin. At the European level, no major changes are expected in some territorial issues, such as in relation to Cyprus, although a relaxation of the tensions that had been accumulating.

But the partners will also have to make efforts. The European Union will have to wink and help a Kılıçdaroğlu who will have a very difficult first steps in the Turkish Government. Brussels has some tools in its hands with which it can help them, such as relaunching efforts to liberalize visas for Turks or the modernization of the 1995 customs union..

There is a particularly delicate point, something that nobody has much appetite for reactivating, but which is still the big elephant in the room: Ankara's accession negotiations to the community club, a membership requested in 1987, which made him a candidate in 1997, and some conversations frozen since 2018 and meat of eurosceptic populism. The supposed entry of Turkey into the Union, a scenario already very distant by then after years of Erdogan in power, was a widely used argument during the Brexit campaign.. The reality is that although Kılıçdaroğlu has expressed his willingness to reactivate these negotiations, in Brussels it is not believed that the scenario of Turkey joining the Union is remotely realistic..

In general, nobody expects radical changes, big swerves, in the main strategic questions. An improvement in the situation, a more reliable and stable democratic Turkey, but not a romance between the bloc and Ankara. “If Kılıçdaroğlu comes to power, his government will almost certainly make a sincere and successful effort to improve relations with Turkey's Western allies.. At the same time, practical and ideological differences will remain as well,” writes Nicholas Danforth of the Hellenic Foundation For European & Foreign Policy.. “Ankara is likely to continue with a more independent foreign policy, but it will do so in a more constructive way, with less of the unnecessary antagonism that has marked relations with the West for the past decade,” Danforth said.. That is, in general, the idea that is also moving in Brussels. A total alignment with the West is not expected, but at least a more constructive and calm relationship is expected.