The EU values sanctioning Belarus immediately for "state kidnapping"

“An act of State terrorism”, “State kidnapping”, “air piracy”. “The scandalous and illegal behavior of the Belarusian regime will have consequences”. Never before has a neighboring country dared to endanger the lives of dozens of European citizens by forcing the diversion and landing of a plane to arrest a political refugee with lies, and never before has the reaction from the continental capitals been so rapid.. The question that the heads of State and Government of the 27 must resolve this afternoon is whether the words will really be followed by consequences or everything will remain in a sea of crocodile tears.

The leaders are summoned today and tomorrow in Brussels for a Meeting of the European Council in which foreign issues, Covid and Climate Change will be addressed. Monday's agenda included discussing relations with Russia, the United Kingdom and what happened in Gaza, but the “piracy” of the Lukashenko regime, forcing the diversion of a Ryanair plane that covered the Athens-Vilnius route to stop a exiled critical journalist and his girlfriend has changed everything. Just last night, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, put the Belarusian question on the agenda and there are many governments, starting with the Lithuanian and the Polish, who demand immediate sanctions. “The incident will not be without consequences,” Michel promised.

The European Council faces a serious reputational issue. What has been done since Minsk offers no doubt. Some details have not yet been made public and it is not conclusively proving that Russian intelligence officers were on the plane and were directly responsible for what happened, but there is little doubt about the choreography, the lies, the pressure from the local air force and the role of the secret services, whose behavior bordered on the crude. The CEO of the airline himself has said so publicly this morning. “What happened is an attack not only on Lithuania, it is an act of State terrorism directed against the security of all Europeans and other countries,” denounced the Lithuanian Prime Minister, Ingrida Simonyte.

Possible response measures

Therefore, that there must be a very harsh answer seems clear and there are ideas on the table. Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo suggested yesterday to ban the Belarusian state airline from using community airports. There are those who ask to immediately force continental airlines not to touch airspace controlled by Minsk and even close the few embassies still present, but these measures would also have consequences for the population and the opposition, who would be left without exit routes and with less dialogue. and support on the ground.

Today in Brussels, the voices that have been calling for much stronger sanctions against Lukashenko, his family and his main aides and business partners are being raised in particular.. But for that, unanimity is needed, and it is not clear that it can be achieved, despite the dozens of statements, tweets and condemnations from practically all the governments and parliaments of Europe.

Last September, after weeks of sending unequivocal messages of support for the Belarusian opposition, harsh criticism of the regime in power and having already outlined a specific battery of sanctions against its leaders, the 27 were unable to make the decision to apply them.. On that occasion the cause was the veto of Cyprus, which had nothing to object to in itself, but which used the Minsk question to put pressure on what really concerned it, the lack of forcefulness in the face of Turkey. The Government in Nicosia put it in simple terms: if there were no sanctions against Ankara they would veto the punishment of Lukashenko, leaving the EU with shame in the air. So it was.

Lukashenko's challenge

Today, that issue is not the main one, but all eyes are on Hungary, which has spent months and months boycotting dozens of Foreign Policy decisions, which has vetoed different sanctions or condemnation and denunciation statements and which, once again, could continue in his line, because if there is anyone even remotely close to Lukashenko in the EU, or willing to take a picture with him, it is precisely Viktor Orban.

The cost of doing nothing would be unaffordable. The US State Department issued a statement yesterday (by the way, with the same language that the EU is always criticized, speaking of “serious concern”), assuring that it was working with the authorities of the Union for a response in accordance with the happened. The 27 must respond with sanctions and not just with words. Asking for the release of Roman Protasevich and his girlfriend, as some heads of government did yesterday or the high representative Josep Borrell has repeated today is not enough. Requesting an in-depth investigation may be legally essential, but it is not enough either.

Lukashenko's defiance of his neighbors is so flagrant that it reflects how little fear he has of the EU and the verbiage. There is, since 2012, a Council Decision that establishes the framework for sanctions against Minsk, contemplating arms embargoes or military assistance, the sale of any type of material that can be used for internal repression, the ban on travel to the EU from those who are on a blacklist or the freezing of assets, measures that are already applied the same as in Russia or Venezuela, to punish a regime, but not the population. But that they are insufficient and have not been updated to respond to the abuses seen in 2020 and the official repression.

The first two measures are maintained, but the list of people who cannot travel is, right now, very short, four individuals considered responsible for the disappearance of four dissidents two decades ago. The list has oscillated over time and was long, but now it is almost at a minimum, according to the lawyer Tomasz Wlostowski.. “Defensive sanctions, to prevent future violations, but not offensive or punitive sanctions to weaken the regime”, since they do not target trade, there are no financial sanctions for the most important sectors of the economy, nor do they punish public companies controlled by Lukashenko and his associates. allies. There are no oligarchs on the target, only two businessmen appear on the lists: Aliaksandr Shakutsin and Mikalai Varabei.