The Thai cage: young people are fed up with the king and the army, but the ballot box does not help

A Thai schoolgirl walks into a classroom. She wears the standard uniform of a white shirt and dark skirt, but something isn't right.. His hands are covered in tattoos; bright red highlights run through her jet black hair; on the walls are posters of missing student activists. When scolded by a sleazy professor, a third eye forms on her forehead and transforms into a fire-breathing naga—a powerful mythological creature believed in by most Thais.. She sings: “Get the hell out of my Bangkok! Get out of my Bangkok!”.

The music video, by Thai singer-songwriter Pyra, 30, is a tribute to the defiance and frustrations of an entire generation of young people, fed up with a ossified establishment, dominated by the military and the monarchy, which has just not relinquished power.. With elections coming up on Sunday, few are optimistic that the vote will put the so-called Land of Smiles on a happier path after years of political turmoil and economic stagnation..

Three years ago, Pyra, whose real name is Peeralada Sukawat, was one of tens of thousands of Thai youth who took to the streets to demand change in the largest youth-led demonstrations ever seen in Thailand.. Protests rocked Thai politics as students wanted pro-democracy regime change. They demanded a new government, a new constitution that would give civilians a chance to have real power and set limits on the king's power, until then a taboo subject in a country with the strictest lèse majesté laws in the world..

“They want to see a progressive Thailand,” says Janjira Soombatponsiri, an assistant professor at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.. “They want to see equality, they want to see a welfare state. They want to see all the things that are so unknown to the older generation.”.

The repression was brutal. Hundreds of protesters are now behind bars, many serving long jail terms for sedition or offenses against the monarchy.. Those who remain free are mostly too scared to speak up, even online where royalist trolls attack anyone who dares criticize the military or royalty..

A year ago, Pyra moved to London in search of more freedom to express herself through her music, which she defines as “dystopian pop”.. She is glad to be away from the Orwellian repression that she believes the youth of her homeland now live under.. “I left because censorship is not good for my work as an artist,” he says. “I need to be able to think outside the box, run like the world is a playground. I can't be limited by a cage created by the government.”.

The fallout from the 2020-2021 protests looms like a shadow over elections this Sunday, May 14, in which pro-democracy opposition forces will compete against a ruling coalition of army-backed parties loyal to the king. Although the opposition leads in the polls by a wide margin, even a landslide victory would not guarantee a path to power..

The current government is headed by Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, a now-retired general who, as head of the army, staged a coup in 2014.. Two years later, his junta rewrote the constitution to make it nearly impossible to form a government without the go-ahead of the military.. The military appoints nearly all of Thailand's 250 senators, who choose the prime minister along with 500 popularly elected deputies. It is therefore not surprising that in the last elections in 2019 Prayuth was able to retain his seat despite the fact that the opposition won many more seats than his party..

The math is simple: to even have a chance of running for prime minister, a pro-democracy party needs to get three times as many elected representatives as a party supported by the uniformed in the upper house.. Despite the odds being stacked against them, the opposition hopes that youth voter turnout will be high enough for a resounding victory that the generals can't undo.

For the first time in history, Thais between the ages of 18 and 25 could be a larger voting bloc than older adults, who tend to back the military and the crown.. That gives first-time voters unprecedented importance to those who promise to unseat the generals.. Five years ago, young people flocked to vote for the new Futuro Hacia Adelante party, which promised to cut the power of the military, decentralize the bureaucracy and tackle inequality.. It shocked the political class by coming in third, but a year later the party was disqualified for allegedly violating campaign finance laws..

The Progressives have now renamed themselves Move Forward, following the playbook of Thai electoral politics: if you get dissolved, just change your party name and run again!

Another contender is Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the 36-year-old daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a populist billionaire who recently announced he would return to Thailand after 17 years in self-imposed “exile.”. Thaksin fled Thailand in 2008, two years after he was ousted in a coup, and faces up to a decade in jail on a series of charges he says were politically motivated.. But despite its youth, Paetongtarn hasn't connected well with younger voters.. Many are probably wondering if she is just a puppet of her father..

The question is, will these young people vote for opposition parties that treated protesters, at the time, like spoiled brats? “The political establishment has done nothing for the young people who risked their lives and spent time in jail,” says Aim Sinpeng, a senior lecturer and expert on Thai politics at the University of Sydney..

For Sinpeng, many of the protesters showed they had more guts than the opposition parties now seeking votes for his generation.. “These young people did not tell their parents that they were going to the protests. They understood that their participation could destroy their families because they went against the wishes of their parents,” he explains.. “But they did it anyway, and that takes courage in a country like Thailand, where you can have serious consequences for simply standing still and not saying anything.”.

At the heart of youth disillusionment lies a deep generational divide in Thailand, says Soombatponsiri. “Young people see Thailand in a completely different light. They question the notion of the Thai nation, what they have learned in school about the history of the country and their identity,” he adds.. For their part, the monarchist parties are fighting back by glorifying the army and the king.

Pyre agrees.

“Within the younger generation, there is that fire to overthrow the older generation,” he asserts.. “Change is only a matter of time, but it will only happen after the previous generation is gone,” he concludes..

*This article was originally published in English on GZERO Media. If you are interested in international politics, but want someone to explain it to you, subscribe to the Signal newsletter here.