The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, aspires to a second term. He officially announced it on Monday in Berlin and emphasized it this Wednesday in Brussels, at the headquarters of the European Parliament.. It is not yet time for programs, ideas, proposals, but it is time to move. The numbers are complicated, and even if Von der Leyen has the broad support of the European Council, of the 27 heads of State and Government, she will also need the vote in favor of the plenary session of the European Chamber, which in 2019 approved her. shaved most in history, by just nine votes. For this reason, the German has already activated itself in search of allies with an old motto as a flag: keep your friends close, but your enemies even closer.
In the next legislature, a new rise of far-right forces, skeptics, europhobes and radicals, is expected.. In the last five years, Von der Leyen has counted on the 'yes' of the Popular Party, Socialists, Liberals and even the Greens for the ratification of her team and her proposals.. But it has often been opposed by the ECR group, the conservatives and reformists, chaired by the Italian Giorgia Meloni and which includes forces such as the Polish Pis, Vox, the French Reconquête, the Flemish N-VA, among others.. And even more so to the ID group, which encompasses Matteo Salvini's Lega, the German AfD, the Flemish or Danish far-right.
The next five years look even more complicated.. Unlike what happened in 2014 (Juncker against Barnier) or 2019 (Weber against Stubb), the European People's Party has communicated that there is no additional candidacy to be the visible face of the group in the face of the European elections and the next elections. positions, and will officially endorse Von der Leyen next month at their congress in Bucharest. It is a mere procedure, at least externally, but not so much internally..
Von der Leyen and Manfred Weber, the party president and parliamentary group leader, are close enemies. Their relationship is bad, their rivalry is constant, their agendas are incompatible.. Weber, a Bavarian from the CSU, aspired in 2019 to be president of the Commission, but the leaders ignored him and offered the position to an unknown Defense Minister. But both need each other now and there is part of the political family, for example the French side, that did not support her five years ago and will not do so now, because they see her as a puppet of Macron.
In addition to the personal affinity between leaders, there is an underlying ideological issue. Von der Leyen is a conservative, with a large family, and impeccable credentials, at least historically. But he has 'governed' in Brussels with his hand on his left, towards the green world, in a way that bothers his coreligionists. She has been similar to her predecessors, maintaining the center, aspiring to great coalitions. Much more pragmatism than program, and the program that has been advanced would have been signed perfectly by the social democrats, almost point by point.. It was essential to survive, but especially to get things done more easily and keep intact her reputation as a pro-European, defender of rights.
For this reason, the popular believe that it should be tougher, more orthodox, economically, socially and environmentally, taking into account farmers, businessmen, manufacturers, rather than young people, NGOs.. That you should stop thinking about your popularity and focus on your hard core.. They are going to give their support, because they cannot do anything else, but with some casualties in the ranks and marking two clear lines. The first, that he soften his progressive agenda if he wants to move the legislature forward.. The green transition seems good to them, but calmly, with even “regulatory pauses”, because the pressure is very high in their constituencies. And Von der Leyen does not respond to the voters, but those who nominated her and can do so again do.
The second, similar guideline is that you will have to assume that the conservatives are divided and a growing part asks for pacts with those who are further to their right, not to their left.. That is why all the questions in the president's appearance this Wednesday were about the ECR group.. If you are open to understanding with them, what you can offer, where you will be planted. She hasn't closed the door on anyone in particular.. And with the limits that it has set, it contemplates specific understandings, but with reservations. “Do they defend democracy? Do they defend our values? Are they very firm in the rule of law? Do they support Ukraine? These answers have to be very clear and the cut-off line too. If they are against the rule of law, impossible. Friends of Putin? Impossible”.
In Brussels everyone is aware that the electoral part has already taken hold. The proposal machine has stopped and all the dossiers that affect immigration, countryside, pesticides, tobacco, alcohol, climate or agriculture, the issues that right now seem to mobilize the potential vote of the extreme right the most, have been paralyzed, softened or hidden.
Von der Leyen has endorsed the EPP's approaches, which are malleable. They say that they will never go hand in hand with anyone who is not pro-European, pro-rule of law and pro-Ukraine.. But with a reasonable margin of interpretation, as has always been done. The popular ones lost Orban's party, Fidesz, which has not yet found accommodation. But they would be delighted to add, after the Europeans, the Flemish N-VA and even, potentially, Meloni's Brothers of Italy. “We do not know who will be in ECR after the elections. In each election the different political groups change,” Von der Leyen concluded, leaving everything in the hands of who stays and who goes.. But above all, who do you need?. Until now the numbers only came out with the usual scheme, grand coalition, a little expanded. But maybe in a few months there will be other options. Before impossible, before unthinkable. Now a temptation.