What is at stake for the EU on 23-J: from the possible reinforcement of the PPE with a victory for Feijóo… to the 'homework to do' if Sánchez wins

It is not difficult to hear in Brussels that European policy is not foreign policy. And that is the reality: what happens in the EU directly affects Spain, and vice versa. It is true that the European Commission does not assess appointments or electoral results, but the elections of July 23 have a reading in a community key that is important. The Union risks things depending on the result because the role of Spain and its discourse, with one government or another, could change even radically. Thus, the question is: what is at stake for the European Union this 23-J?

Elections in full presidency of the Council

“Priorities do not change, but the focus that is given to them does”. Spain is going to elections in the middle of the presidency of the Council of the EU, and this semester the agenda is full regardless of who will be in Moncloa from Sunday. But that phrase from Adrián Vázquez, MEP and Secretary General of Ciudadanos, 20 minutes away gives a good account of the extent to which the European 'look' can change from one government to another. While the PSOE has focused on issues such as energy, the environment or equality, the vision of the PP could be much more economical and with the center also on issues such as livestock or agriculture.

In Brussels there is a moderate concern. “Other presidencies have had elections and they have gone well”, they comment in the corridors of Parliament and the Commission. The change or not will depend, however, on who sits in the Moncloa. The continuity of Sánchez with Sumar will not be the same as a lone PP government, than a coalition of the popular with Vox. The agenda of the presidency cannot be altered, but the way in which it is dealt with can be. The polls will say.

The PP… and Vox?

All the polls (except the CIS) show the PP of Alberto Núñez Feijóo as the winner of the elections, which if confirmed would also give a boost to the PPE, which right now leads the important governments of Austria or Greece and has just added to its credit those of Sweden or Finland. And it is that surely the EU is before a new 'momentum' of the conservatives; The sources consulted, in fact, are clear: “The trend is changing”, and also the objective of the popular is to govern alone.

When the conservative ranks are asked in Brussels, they handle this approach before others, and defend the “convinced Europeanism” of the formation, as the PP spokesperson in the European Parliament, Dolors Montserrat, comments. The popular, yes, could turn their message both to that part and to the economic, with a preparation of the presidency with a diplomatic point, judging by the team that Feijóo has organized.

Another of the legs of Feijóo's message is precisely that: the Spanish economy is not doing well, as Sánchez says. In fact, the popular leader has already announced that he will change things in the recovery plan approved by the coalition executive. The Galician relies on the “mismanagement” that in his opinion is being made of the funds, “that do not reach the families”. The PP is clear about criticism in this regard: “It is a motorcycle that does not work.”

And what about Vox? Those of Abascal, who recognize themselves as Eurosceptics, aspire to be the third force and enter a future Government with the PP, although that is not the initial idea in Genoa. In a European key, for example, Vox proposes the primacy of national law over community law; and this is something contrary to the Treaties and that has already generated a freezing of funds in countries like Poland and Hungary, although in those cases the radical right leads the Executives. However, they are the European references for Abascal, just like Giorgia Meloni's Italy.

Sánchez and the desire for leadership

In the race to Moncloa, its tenant is second right now: Pedro Sánchez. Its image in the sphere of the European Union has been reinforced over time, especially due to the weight it has had in the most important debates such as the recovery fund, energy or the reform of fiscal rules.. The socialist candidate and current Prime Minister is eager to continue on the front line. Get out in the most important photo. But not only that: the feeling with the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, is also very clear. Sánchez assumes that he has many homework to do in the European context, and assumes that he needs another legislature to complete many of them, such as an ambitious reform of the electricity market.

“It is indisputable how Spain has once again returned to Europe, assuming a leading role in decision-making, especially in a legislature that has not been very normal to say,” says Iratxe García, president of the group of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) in the European Parliament.. Although at the same time he recognizes that there are still many things to do because, in addition, some of the approaches that Sánchez has proposed in this legislature are for the long term. On the other hand, for Montserrat directly “the Government has not been up to the task”, and gives as an example what for her is “a clear division” between PSOE and Podemos on the war in Ukraine or the “abandonment” to the primary sector.

Sumar, Díaz and a 'new' left

With Yolanda Díaz, on the other hand, the left to the left of the PSOE has given an important change if the reading that is made is community: Podemos has formed part of the group of the Left in the European Parliament until now, but the vice president of the Government now wants hers in the Greens. This step has been exemplified, for example, by placing Ernest Urtasun, a highly relevant asset of the ecologist family and one of the most valued MEPs in Brussels, as spokesman for the formation.. Díaz, in fact, speaks of “new labor” and of giving the EU a boost in social matters.

Regulations such as a rider law at the European level or a directive on minimum wages could bear the signature of the also Minister of Labor, especially at a time when Spain holds the presidency of the Council. But for this he knows that he needs to reissue the current government. The Galician leader claims that she wants to “do things even better” and will seek to force the PSOE, she assures, to implement “more social advances”. The EU has entered another era of another new left, now without Syriza and with Podemos precisely integrated into Sumar; Yolanda Díaz wants to be the leading voice in those times.

A first step before the 2024 Europeans

Spain goes to the polls this Sunday and the elections can even be taken as one of the trials for what may happen in the European elections in June 2024. There is already some clue: for example, the biodiversity law, which separated the Social Democrats and conservatives almost irreconcilably, put on the table a block with socialists, greens and liberals and another with the popular and the radical right. Will this last over time? It depends on how the story is written, and 23-J will be one of the chapters.