Last March, updates coming from the front line suggested that Bakhmut was going through his darkest moment.. Russian troops were advancing around the city and Ukrainian soldiers were facing increasing pressure.. It looked like the end of one of the longest battles of the Ukraine war, described as a “meat grinder” for both sides.. However, more than two months later, the territory remains disputed and small advances continue as kyiv forces prepare to counteroffensive..

This past Thursday, Ukraine affirmed that it had recovered a part of the territory in Bakhmut and that they managed to stop Moscow's efforts to evict the Ukrainian units that control some areas in the western part of the city after months of fighting.. “In some sections of the front line, the enemy could not withstand the pressure of the Ukrainian defenders and withdrew up to 2 kilometers,” said Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskiy, commander of the Ukrainian ground forces..

The Ukrainian commander's statements came after Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group, stated that the Russian troops had lost part of the territory and that a group of soldiers had abandoned their positions.. “Everyone fled and a front nearly two kilometers wide and 500 meters deep was exposed,” he said.. Pro-Russian bloggers also reported on Ukrainian troop movements..

Although the information could not be independently verified, the Ukrainian advance would mark the first significant victory for the kyiv forces in recent months.. For its part, the Kremlin denied that Ukraine had made significant progress.. “Individual statements on Telegram about a 'breakthrough' at various points on the front line do not correspond to reality.. The general situation in the zone of special military operations is under control,” the Defense Ministry said in a statement..

All eyes are once again on Bakhmut, despite the fact that this front has no strategic value. Until now, both Russia, through the Wagner Group, and Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky have turned this city into a symbol of resistance.. It is, therefore, a symbolic fight rather than a tactical one.. Unlike other regions, Bakhmut is not a railway hub or a logistics center of special relevance.. One of its most important points is that it is close to several major highways for Russian advances to the west, but the same could be said of dozens of other cities in the region..

After months and months of intense battle, why do the two sides continue to focus their efforts on this front despite its little strategic importance? “It is difficult to know from our point of view whether the Ukrainian counterattacks are probing attacks, limited offensives or the start of a larger counteroffensive.. My opinion is that these attacks are mainly aimed at relieving pressure from other parts of the front by forcing Russia to divert troops from the city center.. The fact that Ukraine can recover part of the territory during this process is a nice additional advantage,” Fabian Hoffman, an expert in military strategy and defense policy at the University of Oslo, and a former researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told El Confidencial..

Bajmut: the 'zero kilometer' of the counteroffensive?

One of the hypotheses after the alleged Ukrainian advances is whether kyiv could start its counteroffensive on this front, a scenario that until now was ruled out.. Bakhmut had been positioned as the last battle before the counterattack by Ukrainian troops, but some analysts argue that military efforts could turn this front into the starting gun for the counteroffensive..

Volodimir Zelenski, however, ruled out an imminent start of this new chapter of the war last Thursday. “With what we have we can go ahead and I think we can be successful,” he said, referring to the latest military aid sent by the West.. “But we will lose a lot of people. We still need a little more time,” he said.. Ukraine's top military commanders have repeatedly stressed the danger of setting such high expectations for the counteroffensive, with some reports pointing to Kiev's diversionary strategies to mislead Russia as to when and where the attacks would begin..

Rumors about a start of the counteroffensive in this city reached their highest point after Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that there is a danger that Wagner's fighters will be surrounded on the front.. “There is a serious risk of Wagner's encirclement at Bakhmut as a result of the collapse of the flanks. The flanks are already cracking and falling,” he wrote on his Telegram channel..

Despite everything, Fabian Hoffman sees it as unlikely that Ukraine could be using an advantage in the city to start the large-scale counteroffensive there.. “This scenario would require the diversion of large numbers of Ukrainian maneuver forces, such as tanks, which could rapidly encircle the city and the forces trapped within.. I don't think this is likely, unless Ukraine actually plans to launch its counter-offensive in the direction of Bakhmut,” the expert said..

In fact, Hoffman believes that this front could be the start of the counterattack, but only in the sense “that the advantage of the war goes back to Ukraine.”. I would be surprised if Bakhmut was the main direction in which kyiv tries to force a breakthrough.. But of course this is just speculation.”.

Ukraine has begun a series of local counterattacks in the Bakhmut area. First they pushed Russians to the canal in the south, and now they’re attacking Russian positions near Bohdanivka and Khromove road. 1/ pic.twitter.com/YlJ50gV3q0

— Emil Kastehelmi (@emilkastehelmi) May 11, 2023

One of the possibilities is that Ukraine is betting on a diversionary tactic, as it did in Kharkiv in the counter-offensive last year.. In this case, the Kiev forces could be focusing attention on Bakhmut so that the Russian troops will regroup on this front and leave others unattended.. “I suspect that these are diversionary attacks with both political and military objectives.. If Russia sends reserves to this front, they could decisively weaken other sectors. If they don't, there's a chance of significant political humiliation.. Both options are good for Ukraine,” pointed out Emil Kastehelmi, an expert on open source intelligence (Osint), in a Twitter thread.

An elephant in the room named Prigozhin

Bakhmut has once again been in the military spotlight after Yevgeny Prigozin started the “verbal war” against the Russian Ministry of Defense. Last week, the head of the Wagner Group released a video in which he directly attacked Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov over the lack of ammunition.. Claims of a lack of weaponry on the front line labeled a “meat grinder” were followed by claims that a unit of soldiers had fled from Bakhmut.. “The situation on the western flanks is developing in accordance with the worst-case scenario envisioned.. Those territories that were liberated with the blood and lives of our comrades… today they are abandoned almost without a fight by those who are supposed to hold our flanks,” Prigozhin said..

In addition, the leader of the group of military contractors denied that the Ukrainian advances in this territory are part of the Ukrainian propaganda, as the Kremlin Ministry of Defense pointed out.. “Prigozhin mainly serves his own interest and tries to save his own skin. The alleged lack of ammunition is a good excuse for Wagner's lack of progress in taking full control of the city.. I can't say how well orchestrated or timely this was, but the timing was really suspicious,” Stefan Hoffman told this newspaper..

Bakhmut has been a particularly tough front for both sides. As Wagner hurled wave after wave of recruits with little training or military equipment against the city's defenses, the Ukraine has also suffered heavy casualties.. Although exact figures are difficult to calculate, the US National Security Council estimated that Russia may have suffered more than 100,000 casualties since December..

The US government has urged the Zelensky government to abandon this front due to its little strategic importance but its great human cost.. However, the president insists that this city is a symbol of resistance and that they will not give up their positions so easily.. For Russia, even if it were to win this front, it would be a victory of little strategic value in which they have lost many men, ammunition and weapons in the process.. This scenario may make them vulnerable to a Ukrainian counteroffensive, although Kremlin forces have been fortifying their defensive posts for months.

A scuffle between Wagner and the Ministry of Defense, the front described as a “meat grinder” and the question of how this territory will be able to influence the advance for the war in Ukraine. For Yevhen, a 29-year-old Ukrainian soldier in Bajmut, this battle has been one of the long and hard ones, but it has also been the way to change “everyone’s opinion about the potential of the Ukrainian army. We still have many surprises,” he told the BBC.